AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 30, 2026. In the fourth week of March, weekly average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week and mostly stayed below €90/MWh. The Iberian market registered the lowest values, with daily prices below €10/MWh and a minimum in Spain not seen since 2013. Photovoltaic energy production set records for a March day in Spain and Italy, while wind energy production and demand increased, TTF gas futures declined and Brent futures reached their highest level since July 2022.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of March 23, solar photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in the main southern European markets. Portugal registered the largest increase, 31%. Italy and Spain continued their upward trend for the third consecutive week, with increases of 19% and 13%, respectively. By contrast, photovoltaic energy production in the German and French markets fell by 11% and 0.1%, respectively, reversing the upward trend of the previous week.
Spain and Italy set new all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a March day. Spain reached this milestone on Tuesday, March 24, with production of 194 GWh, and Italy followed on March 25, with production of 139 GWh.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, this positive trend will continue during the week of March 30 in the Italian and Spanish markets. However, photovoltaic energy production will decrease in Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of March 23, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 78%, marking its second consecutive weekly rise. Germany followed with a 72% increase. In Spain it increased by 47%, while France registered the smallest increase, 18%. Portugal moved in the opposite direction, with a 2.3% decrease.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, during the week of March 30, wind energy production will increase in the Spanish, Portuguese, French and German markets. In contrast, Italy will register a decrease in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of March 23, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week, reversing the downward trend registered the week before. The French market registered the largest increase, 4.4%. Demand rose by 2.2%, 1.7% and 1.4% in the Belgian, German and British markets, respectively. Demand in the Italian market stayed similar to the previous week. The exception to the positive trend was the Iberian Peninsula. Demand in the Portuguese market fell for the second consecutive week, this time by 8.1%, while demand in the Spanish market fell for the third consecutive week, this time by 1.6%.
At the same time, average temperatures fell in most analyzed markets. Decreases ranged from 0.5 °C in Italy to 2.1 °C in France. In Portugal, average temperatures stayed close to the previous week’s levels.
In the week of March 30, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to a reversal of the positive trend, with demand expected to decrease in the main European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of March, most major European electricity markets registered high daily prices on Monday, March 23. In many cases, prices fell during the rest of the week except on Thursday and Friday, when they rebounded. As a result, weekly average prices declined in most markets. The French market stood as the exception, with a 38% increase. The Portuguese and Spanish markets showed the largest percentage price drops, 49% and 50%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 7.3% in the Italian market and 26% in the British market.
In the week of March 23, weekly averages stayed below €90/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets formed the exceptions, with averages of €93.54/MWh and €138.15/MWh, respectively. The Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest weekly averages, €17.69/MWh and €17.78/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €45.10/MWh in the Nordic market to €88.04/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, the Iberian markets registered daily prices below €10/MWh from March 26 to March 29. On Sunday, March 29, the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €0.18/MWh in both cases. This price marked the lowest level since April 6, 2024, in the Portuguese market and the lowest since April 2, 2013, in the Spanish market. On March 25, the Belgian and Dutch markets reached their lowest daily prices since October 27, 2025, €35.03/MWh and €42.24/MWh, respectively. On the same day, the German and British markets registered their lowest daily averages since January 2, 2026, €37.68/MWh and €48.12/MWh, respectively.
Meanwhile, during the fourth week of March, daily prices in the Italian market stayed above €110/MWh and exceeded €135/MWh from Monday through Friday. The German, Belgian, British, French and Dutch markets also registered prices above €110/MWh in at least one session that week. On Monday, March 23, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €165.24/MWh.
In the week of March 23, falling gas prices during the first sessions of the week pushed European electricity market prices downward. In the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, increased solar and wind energy production also contributed to lower prices. In addition, lower electricity demand in Spain and Portugal helped these markets reach the lowest weekly prices.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts suggest that prices could fall in some markets during the first week of April, influenced by lower electricity demand. However, gas price trends will continue to shape European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $99.94/bbl, on Monday, March 23. Prices then followed a mostly upward trend. As a result, on Friday, March 27, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $112.57/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 0.3% above the previous Friday and marked the highest level since July 5, 2022.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the United States and Iran pushed Brent oil futures prices downward at the beginning of the fourth week of March. However, rising tensions in the Middle East drove prices back up.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €56.68/MWh, on Monday, March 23. This price already stood 4.3% below the last session of the previous week. Prices fell until March 25, when these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €52.82/MWh. During the last two sessions of the week, prices stayed above €54/MWh. On Friday, March 27, the settlement price reached €54.18/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 8.6% below the previous Friday.
Statements by the US president about peace negotiations with Iran pushed TTF gas futures prices downward during the first sessions of the fourth week of March. However, developments in the conflict and low European storage levels supported a price rebound toward the end of the week.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they followed a mostly upward trend during the fourth week of March. These futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €69.26/t, on Monday, March 23, while settlement prices exceeded €70/t during the rest of the week. On Friday, March 27, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.69/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 5.9% above the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and storage in Europe
On Thursday, April 16, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 65th edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition will include Raúl García Posada, Director of ASEALEN, the Spanish Energy Storage Association, for the fifth time in the webinar series. This session will cover the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the regulation, current situation and prospects for energy storage.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.