AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 14, 2025. During the second week of July, electricity prices in most major European markets fell compared to the previous week, although in nearly all cases, weekly averages remained above €75/MWh. Throughout the week, France and Italy reached their highest‑ever daily photovoltaic energy production, while Spain registered its highest level for a day in July. The drop in demand, due to milder temperatures, also contributed to downward pressure on prices.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of July 7, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the markets of France, Italy and Spain compared to the previous week. The French market continued its upward trend for the second consecutive week and saw the most significant growth, at 9.1%. The Italian and Spanish markets reversed the declines of the previous week, with increases of 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. In contrast, the German and Portuguese markets saw a reversal of the previous week’s upward trend, with photovoltaic energy production falling by 22% and 13%, respectively.
Throughout the week, the French and Italian markets set historic records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On July 10, the French market registered its highest‑ever production with solar photovoltaic energy, reaching 173 GWh. On July 9, the Italian market registered its highest‑ever production, generating 161 GWh. On July 7, the Spanish market set a new all‑time high for photovoltaic energy generation for a day in July, with 224 GWh.
For the week of July 14, according to solar energy forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, production with this technology will increase in the German and Spanish markets and decrease in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the second week of July, wind energy production increased week‑over‑week in Italy and France. The Italian market saw the largest rise, with a 191% increase, reversing the decline from the previous week. The French market posted growth for the fourth consecutive week, this time by 2.2%. However, the Iberian market registered the steepest declines, with wind energy production falling by 9.2% in Spain and 8.8% in Portugal, followed by the German market, where production decreased for the second week in a row, this time by 6.0%.
During the week of July 14, according to wind energy forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, changes in the production from this technology compared to the previous week will again show a mixed pattern. Wind energy production will increase in the French and Portuguese markets but decrease in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of July 7, electricity demand declined in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend observed the week before. After six consecutive weeks of growth, the Italian market registered the largest drop, at 12%. In the other markets, decreases ranged from 1.3% in Great Britain to 7.8% in France.
At the same time, average temperatures dropped across most of the analyzed markets, reducing the need for cooling and, as a result, lowering demand. Average temperatures fell between 2.3°C in Spain and 4.5°C in Germany. However, in Great Britain, average temperatures rose by 1.0°C compared to the previous week.
For the week of July 14, according to demand forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, demand will increase in the Italian, Spanish and British markets. However, the downward trend will continue in the Belgian, Portuguese and German markets. In the French market, demand will remain similar to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the second week of July, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the N2EX market of United Kingdom and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, which saw increases of 9.9% and 67%, respectively. The EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price drop, at 34%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices declined between 5.1% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 16% in the MIBEL market of Spain.
Despite the price decreases, during the week of July 7, weekly averages remained above €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, with averages of €33.54/MWh and €49.96/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the IPEX market of Italy posted the highest weekly average, at €108.38/MWh. Among the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €77.28/MWh in the Spanish market and €91.51/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, July 13, the Nordic market registered the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, at €16.99/MWh. However, on July 9, this market reached its highest daily price since May 10, at €51.81/MWh. Meanwhile, prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh throughout the week. On Thursday, July 10, the Iberian market also exceeded this threshold. On Monday, July 7, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, at €118.27/MWh.
During the week of July 7, the decline in demand, along with increased solar energy production in most markets, contributed to the fall in electricity prices across Europe. Additionally, wind energy production rose in France and Italy.
Price forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that during the third week of July, prices will rise in most major European electricity markets, influenced by lower wind energy production in most markets and, in some cases, higher demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market followed an upward trend during most sessions of the second week of July. The exception was Thursday, July 10, when the settlement price fell by 2.2% compared to the previous day. On that day, the futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $68.64/bbl. However, on Friday, July 11, after a 2.5% increase from Thursday, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $70.36/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this settlement price was 3.0% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Despite the announcement of new production increases by OPEC+ for August, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia’s price increases for Asia pushed Brent oil futures higher. The possibility of new sanctions on Russian oil also contributed to the price increase. However, concerns remain about the impact of US tariff policies on global oil demand. News of OPEC+ discussions to pause production increases in October, along with a rise in US crude inventories, also contributed to Thursday’s price decline.
As for TTF gas futures for the Front‑Month on the ICE market, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €33.62/MWh on Monday, July 7. Settlement prices rose throughout the second week of July. As a result, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €35.56/MWh on Friday, July 11. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this settlement price was 6.3% higher than that of the previous Friday.
The increase in demand in Asia due to a heatwave contributed to the rise in TTF gas futures prices. Higher liquefied natural gas shipments to Asia could impact the filling of European reserves for the upcoming winter. However, concerns over the effects of US tariff policies helped keep settlement prices below €36/MWh.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, the weekly maximum settlement price of €71.20/t was reached on Monday, July 7. However, this price was already 0.7% lower than the previous Friday. The downward trend continued through July 9, when the futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €70.41/t. In the final sessions of the week, settlement prices were slightly higher but remained below €71/t. On Friday, July 11, the settlement price was €70.55/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was 1.6% lower than the previous Friday’s settlement price.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
On Thursday, July 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting hosted the 57th edition of its monthly webinar series. This session analyzed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the current situation and prospects for PPA, with a particular emphasis on the perspective of large consumers. It also addressed the prospects for energy storage and the IDAE funding call for energy storage projects.
The analysis panel of the webinar in Spanish featured Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell. Pedro González provided insight into the perspective of electro‑intensive large consumers, while Roger Font discussed the challenges and opportunities for storage and renewable energy project financing in the current market context.
If AleaSoft Energy Forecasting is your market advisor, you can request a recording of the webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.