AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 23, 2026. During the third week of March, prices in most major European electricity markets registered an upward trend at the beginning of the week, although the weekly average fell compared to the previous week in most markets due to price declines at the end of the week. Photovoltaic energy production increased and wind energy production grew in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, while electricity demand declined. Brent futures reached their highest level since July 2022 and TTF gas futures since January 2023, while CO₂ futures registered their lowest price since April 2025.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of March 16, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. France and Germany registered the largest increases, 35% in both cases, reversing the previous week’s downward trend. The Italian and Spanish markets maintained their upward trend for the second consecutive week, with production rising by 6.1% and 6.3%, respectively. In contrast, production using this technology fell by 26% in the Portuguese market.
During the week, Germany and France set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a March day. On March 19, the German market reached its second‑highest daily production for this month, 341 GWh. One day later, on March 20, the French market set its all‑time record for daily production for March, 141 GWh.
For the week of March 23, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to higher production in the Italian and Spanish markets. In contrast, production will fall in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the third week of March, wind energy production increased in the Iberian and Italian markets after declines of the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 113%, while the Spanish market showed the smallest rise, 6.2%. In Portugal, production increased by 14%. Meanwhile, Germany and France reversed their wind energy production trend after increases of the previous week. The German market registered the largest drop, 27%, while the French market registered the smallest decline, 14%.
For the last week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate higher production in the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and Germany. In contrast, the French market will register declines in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of March 16, electricity demand declined in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest drop, 5.9%, followed by the decline of 5.0% in Spain and 4.5% in France. Belgium, Germany and Great Britain registered declines of 1.4%, 1.5% and 3.8%, respectively. Spain and Great Britain maintained their downward trend for a second consecutive week. However, demand in the Italian market increased by 0.2% after six weeks of declines.
During the week, average temperatures were less cold than in the previous week in most analyzed markets. Portugal and Great Britain registered the largest temperature increases, 1.5 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively. Belgium registered the smallest rise, 0.2 °C, while France and Spain registered increases of 0.7 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively. By contrast, Italy and Germany registered lower average temperatures than the previous week, with decreases of 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C, respectively.
For the last week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate higher demand in Spain, Belgium, Great Britain and France. In contrast, demand will fall in Portugal, Italy and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the third week of March, prices in most major European electricity markets followed an upward trend, but prices dropped on March 19 or 20 and over the weekend. As a result, weekly average prices fell in most markets. The Italian, German and British markets were the exceptions, with increases of 1.0%, 7.1% and 20%, respectively. In contrast, Portugal and Spain registered the largest percentage price drops, 49% and 50%, respectively. In the rest of the markets at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 2.3% in the Dutch market and 42% in the French market.
In the week of March 16, weekly averages exceeded €90/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Portuguese, Spanish, French and Nordic markets were the exceptions, with averages of €34.83/MWh, €35.32/MWh, €46.90/MWh and €55.39/MWh, respectively. Italy registered the highest weekly average, €149.04/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €93.49/MWh in the Belgian market to €126.57/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, on Thursday, March 19, Spain and Portugal registered the lowest average among the analyzed markets, €24.95/MWh. These markets also registered daily prices below €30/MWh on March 18 and 22. France also dropped below €30/MWh on March 18, while the Nordic market did so on Sunday, March 22.
Meanwhile, during the third week of March, daily prices in the Italian market remained above €135/MWh. The German, Belgian, British and Dutch markets also registered prices above €100/MWh in some sessions that week. On Sunday, March 22, the Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €161.89/MWh. On Friday, March 20, the British market reached its highest price since February 3, 2025, €157.88/MWh.
In the week of March 16, the increase in weekly gas prices pushed European electricity market prices upward. However, lower weekly CO₂ emission allowance prices, reduced electricity demand and higher solar energy production in most markets supported price declines in most major European electricity markets. Higher wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula also contributed to lower prices in Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of March, prices could rise in most major European electricity markets, driven by high gas prices and increased demand in most markets. Lower solar energy production in Germany and lower wind energy production in France could also push prices higher in those markets. By contrast, higher wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and higher solar energy production in Spain will put downward pressure on prices in Spain and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market exceeded $100/bbl during the third week of March. On Monday, March 16, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $100.21/bbl. Prices then followed an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, March 20, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $112.19/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 8.8% above the previous Friday and marked the highest level since July 5, 2022.
During the third week of March, prices continued to rise despite efforts to curb the increase. Iraq’s agreement to export oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan put downward pressure on prices midweek. However, supply disruptions stemming from the conflict between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive Brent oil futures prices higher.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they increased in the first four sessions of the third week of March. On Monday, March 16, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €50.89/MWh. After subsequent increases, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €61.85/MWh, on Thursday, March 19. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since January 24, 2023. On Friday, March 20, the settlement price fell by 4.2% from Thursday to €59.26/MWh, although this still stood 18% above the previous Friday.
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on supply continued to drive up TTF gas futures prices during the third week of March. Low European storage levels also contributed to the price increase. Currently, European storage levels average below 30%, with some countries at less than 25%.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they followed a downward trend through most of the third week of March. On Monday, March 16, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €69.02/t. Prices then fell until Thursday, March 19, when these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €63.67/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the lowest level since April 10, 2025. On Friday, March 20, the settlement price rose 6.3% from the previous day to €67.68/t, although it still stood 2.2% below the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
The 64th edition of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting took place on Thursday, March 12. Speakers from EY participated for the sixth consecutive year. This edition focused on the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects for spring 2026, the main milestones for 2026 in the energy sector, regulation and prospects for energy storage and capacity markets, financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the importance of PPA and self‑consumption, as well as the main considerations to take into account in portfolio valuation.
The recording of the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish is available on YouTube, Spotify and iVoox. Excerpts from the panel discussions of previous webinars in Spanish can also be found on AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s accounts on these platforms.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.