AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 2, 2026. In May 2026, monthly average prices increased in most major European electricity markets. Higher gas and CO₂ prices, together with lower wind energy production in several markets, contributed to this trend. Germany reached an all‑time record for solar photovoltaic energy production, while Spain, France, Italy and Portugal registered their highest solar energy production for a month of May, and Italy achieved a May record for wind energy production. Brent futures registered their highest monthly average since August 2022.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In May 2026, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared with the same month of the previous year. Spain led the percentage growth with a 27% increase, while Portugal registered the smallest rise, 2.9%. Meanwhile, production increased by 5.2% in Italy, 7.3% in Germany and 20% in France.
Compared with April 2026, solar photovoltaic energy production also rose across the main European electricity markets analysed. In this case, the Iberian markets registered the largest increases, with growth of 20% in both Spain and Portugal. Germany registered the smallest increase, 6.4%, while production rose by 8.3% in Italy and 10% in France.
The German market reached an all‑time solar photovoltaic energy production record, with a production of 10 964 GWh. In addition, Spain, Italy, France and Portugal registered their highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a month of May. In Spain, production reached 6137 GWh, representing the second‑highest monthly production level on record. Italy registered a production of 4114 GWh, while France registered a production of 3951 GWh, also its second‑highest monthly production ever. Portugal registered 718 GWh.
These solar photovoltaic energy production records reflect year‑on‑year growth in installed capacity. Between May 2025 and May 2026, the Spanish market added 8616 MW of solar photovoltaic capacity, excluding self‑consumption installations, according to Red Eléctrica data. Over the same period, the Portuguese market added 713 MW, according to REN data.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In May 2026, wind energy production increased year‑on‑year in Italy and Portugal by 15% in both cases. By contrast, Germany, France and Spain registered declines in wind energy production. Germany registered the largest decrease, 28%, while France and Spain registered reductions of 21% and 7.7%, respectively.
Compared with the previous month, wind energy production followed the same trend. Portugal and Italy registered increases of 4.2% and 6.5%, respectively. Conversely, wind energy production fell in Germany, France and Spain. Germany registered the largest decline, 29%, followed by France with a 26% decrease and Spain with a 20% reduction.
The Italian market achieved a record level of wind energy production for a month of May, with a production of 2144 GWh. Meanwhile, Germany and Spain registered their lowest May wind energy production levels in several years. Germany registered a production of 7029 GWh, its lowest May figure since 2017. Spain registered a production of 3118 GWh, its lowest May production since 2011.
According to Red Eléctrica data, between May 2025 and May 2026 the Spanish market added 920 MW of new wind capacity, excluding self‑consumption installations. During the same period, the Portuguese market incorporated 120 MW, according to REN data.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In May 2026, electricity demand increased year‑on‑year in most major European markets. Belgium registered the largest increase, 7.0%, while Spain registered the smallest rise, 0.9%. In Italy, France, Portugal and Great Britain, demand increased by between 2.6% in Italy and 4.2% in Great Britain. Germany was the exception, where demand fell by 0.6% compared with May 2025.
Compared with April 2026, demand declined in most of the major European markets analysed. France and Germany registered the largest decreases, 6.8% and 6.0%, respectively. Great Britain and Belgium registered reductions of 3.6% and 4.1%, respectively. By contrast, demand increased in the Iberian markets and Italy. Spain registered the largest rise, 1.0%, while Portugal and Italy registered increases of 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.
Average temperatures were higher than in May 2025 across all European markets analysed. Germany registered the largest increase, 1.5 °C, while Great Britain and Belgium registered the smallest rises, 0.4 °C in both cases. The Iberian Peninsula, Italy and France registered increases ranging from 0.7 °C in Spain and Portugal to 0.9 °C in France.
Compared with the previous month, average temperatures in May also increased across all markets analysed. Germany registered the largest rise, 5.0 °C, while Portugal registered the smallest increase, 1.9 °C. In the remaining markets, average temperatures rose by between 2.5 °C in Spain and 3.7 °C in France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In May 2026, the monthly average price exceeded €75/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were France, Portugal and Spain, with averages of €52.20/MWh, €54.08/MWh and €54.23/MWh, respectively. By contrast, the Italian and British markets registered the highest monthly prices, €119.35/MWh and €120.75/MWh, respectively. In the other European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, average prices ranged from €76.15/MWh in the Nordic market to €97.54/MWh in the German market.
Compared with April, average prices increased in most of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Italy was the only exception, with a marginal decline of 0.1%. France registered the largest percentage price increase, 31%. In the remaining markets, prices rose by between 12% in the Netherlands and 28% in Spain.
Compared with May 2025, prices also increased across European markets. The Portuguese, Nordic, French and Spanish markets registered the largest percentage price increases, 110%, 169%, 169% and 220%, respectively. In the remaining markets, price increases ranged from 28% in Italy to 50% in Belgium.
As a result of these increases, the British market registered its highest monthly average since March 2025.
Higher gas and CO₂ allowance prices compared with April, together with lower wind energy production in most markets, supported the increase in electricity market prices across Europe relative to the previous month.
Compared with the same month in 2025, higher gas and CO₂ allowance prices, as well as increased demand in most markets, drove year‑on‑year price increases across Europe. Lower wind energy production in Germany, France and the Iberian Peninsula also contributed to this upward trend.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered an average price of $103.71/bbl in May 2026. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest monthly average since August 2022. The figure was 1.2% higher than in April 2026, when it stood at $102.46/bbl, and 62% above the May 2025 average, $64.01/bbl.
During May, tensions between the United States and Iran continued to influence Brent oil futures prices. Peace negotiations exerted downward pressure on prices. However, ongoing hostilities and supply disruptions helped push the monthly average slightly higher than in the previous month.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average price in May 2026 was €47.23/MWh. This was 5.0% higher than in April 2026, when the average stood at €44.98/MWh. Compared with May 2025, when the average price was €35.30/MWh, the increase reached 34%.
In May, developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran also continued to have a significant impact on TTF gas futures prices. Expectations of a peace agreement placed downward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, the lack of progress in negotiations and supply constraints supported higher prices. Concerns over low European gas storage levels also contributed to this increase.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, the average price reached €76.31/t in May. This was 3.1% higher than the April 2026 average, €74.04/t, and 4.2% above the May 2025 average, €73.24/t.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis for energy storage
To achieve a profitable and bankable investment, energy storage projects need to identify the configuration that maximises revenues, anticipate the evolution of opportunities of arbitrage and participation in balancing services, assess the impact that increasing battery deployment will have on those revenues and determine the optimal sizing of hybrid projects. These issues are particularly relevant for both stand‑alone systems and hybrid installations, such as solar photovoltaic or wind power plants combined with batteries.
To address these challenges, the AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting prepares forecasting reports for energy storage projects, enabling the optimisation of revenues, system sizing and overall profitability.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.