AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 4, 2025. Prices in the main European electricity markets rose in February 2025, in many cases reaching their highest level since March 2023. This rebound was driven by rising gas prices, which also marked their highest monthly average since that date. In addition, wind energy production fell, in some markets registering its lowest level for February in several years. In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy generation reached its historical maximum for February in the main European markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In February 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the same month of the previous year. France led the percentage growth with 48%, while Italy had the smallest increase, 17%. Spain, Portugal and Germany registered increases in solar photovoltaic energy production of 18%, 30% and 38%, respectively.
Compared to photovoltaic energy production in January 2025, the main European markets analysed increased their production in February. Germany registered the largest rise, 97%, while Portugal registered the smallest increase, 32%. Spain registered an increase of 45%, Italy 51% and France 63%.
The main European markets set all‑time records for photovoltaic energy production for a February month. Germany topped the ranking of the analysed markets with 2995 GWh, followed by Spain with 2918 GWh, France with 1543 GWh and Italy with 1523 GWh. In Portugal, solar photovoltaic energy generation in February reached 331 GWh.
These increases reflect the year‑on‑year growth in installed photovoltaic energy capacity. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between February 2024 and February 2025, Spain added 5816 MW of this technology to the peninsular system, while Portugal added 1217 MW to its solar capacity.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In February 2025, wind energy production fell in the main European electricity markets compared to February of the previous year. Spain registered the largest drop, 46%, while France registered the smallest decline, 33%. In Germany and Portugal, wind energy generation fell by 42%, and Italy registered a 43% contraction.
The comparison with January 2025 showed the same behaviour, with declines in the analysed markets. In this case, the Iberian Peninsula registered the largest declines, 47% for both Spain and Portugal. France, Germany and Italy showed reductions of 30%, 33% and 45%, respectively.
In February 2025, wind energy production in the Spanish, German and Italian markets reached the lowest levels for February in several years. In Spain, 3575 GWh were generated with wind energy, the lowest record for this month since 2019. Germany generated 9417 GWh, its lowest figure since 2018, while Italy reached 1275 GWh, marking its lowest wind energy production for February since 2012.
The falls in wind energy production in February contrast with the growth in installed capacity of this technology. According to data from Red Eléctrica, Spain increased its wind energy capacity in the peninsular system by 1130 MW between February 2024 and February 2025, while Portugal added 28 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In February 2025, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2024. The French market registered the largest increase, 11%, followed by increases of 7.3% in the British market and 7.1% in the Portuguese market. Italy registered the smallest increase, 1.6%, while Belgium and Germany showed increases of 4.1% and 4.3% respectively. The exceptions were the Spanish and Dutch markets, with decreases in demand of 0.6% in Spain and 1.0% in the Netherlands.
Compared to January 2025, most major European markets registered declines in demand. In this case, the Dutch market had the largest drop, 9.5%, while the Belgian market had the smallest drop, 0.1%. In the markets of the Iberian Peninsula, Great Britain and France, the decreases ranged from 2.4% in the Portuguese market to 5.8% in the French market. The German and Italian markets were the exception, registering increases of 0.7% and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the previous month.
In all analysed markets, February 2025 was colder than the same month in 2024. Decreases in average temperatures ranged from 1.0 °C in Spain to 5.1 °C in Germany.
Compared to January 2025, average temperatures were higher in most analysed markets, with increases ranging from 0.2 °C in the Netherlands to 1.3 °C in Great Britain and Belgium. However, Germany showed a decrease in average temperatures of 0.2 °C compared to the previous month.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the month of February 2025, the monthly average price was above €105/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, where the monthly average price was €59.96/MWh. The IPEX market of Italy registered the highest monthly price, €150.36/MWh. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €108.22/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €129.70/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Compared to January, average prices rose in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The British market was the exception, with a drop of 7.8%. On the other hand, the Nordic market registered the largest percentage price rise, 37%. In the other markets, prices increased between 5.1% in the Italian market and 20% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
Comparing average prices for the month of February with those registered in the same month in 2024, prices rose in all analysed markets. In this case, the Nordic market registered the lowest increase, 18%, while the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached the highest rises, 171% and 172%, respectively. In the other markets, price increases ranged from 72% in Italy to 110% in France.
As a result of these price increases, in February 2025, the German, Belgian, French, Italian and Dutch markets registered their highest averages since March 2023. In the case of the Nordic market, it reached the highest average since February 2024.
In February 2025, the increase in gas prices and the fall in wind energy production compared to the previous month favoured the price increases in European electricity markets. Moreover, in the German and Italian markets, electricity demand increased compared to January.
On the other hand, gas and CO2 emission allowance prices rose significantly in February 2025 compared to February 2024. In this case, demand also rose in most markets, while wind energy production fell. These factors contributed to the year‑on‑year price increases in European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $74.95/bbl in the month of February 2025. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this value was 4.3% lower than the January Front‑Month futures price, $78.35/bbl. It was also 8.3% lower than the corresponding February 2024 Front‑Month futures value, $81.72/bbl.
During February 2025, concerns about the effects of US tariff policies on global oil demand, as well as the prospect of increased US production, pushed Brent oil futures prices lower, despite new sanctions on Iranian oil. The possibility of increased Russian oil supplies in the event of a peace agreement for Ukraine also exerted a downward influence on prices in February. In addition, the prospect of a gradual increase in Iraqi supply also contributed to the decline in prices in the last week of the month. However, in the third week of the month, cold temperatures affected US production, while a Ukrainian attack caused Russian oil supplies to decline. This helped to limit the decline in prices, which remained above $70/bbl during February.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the month of February 2025 for these futures was €50.27/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the highest monthly average since March 2023. Compared to the average of Front‑Month futures traded in January, €48.32/MWh, the February average increased by 4.0%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the month of February 2024, when the average price was €25.76/MWh, there was an increase of 95%.
In the month of February, concerns about low levels of European reserves led to higher TTF gas futures prices. However, the proposal of Germany, France and Italy to relax reserve requirements for the coming winter exerted a downward influence on prices. The possibility of an increase in Russian gas supplies if the war in Ukraine were to end also contributed to limiting price increases.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €77.23/t in February. According to the data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly price was 1.2% lower than the January average, which was €78.19/t. In contrast, compared to the February 2024 average, €59.72/t, the February 2025 average was 29% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage and hybridisation
AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides advanced solutions for the optimisation and management of energy storage systems. AleaStorage services are available for stand‑alone battery projects, hybrid systems of renewable technologies, such as wind and solar energy, with batteries, hybrid self‑consumption systems with batteries and other hybrid systems, such as hydraulics, reversible pumping and cogeneration. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculation for systems with energy storage, as well as optimal battery sizing in hybrid systems.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
