AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 19, 2026. In the week of October 12, weekly prices rose across major European electricity markets as lower wind energy production, higher demand and high gas prices drove increases. Italy registered its highest daily price in several years. On Monday, October 19, Spain and Portugal registered their highest daily prices since April 2022. Spain also set a new record for solar photovoltaic energy production for an October day. TTF gas futures reached their highest settlement price since December 2022 as low European gas storage levels and tensions in the Middle East pushed prices higher. These tensions also drove up Brent oil prices.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 12, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in Italy, Portugal and Spain compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, of 25%, following two weeks of declines. Production grew by 14% in Portugal and 3.0% in Spain. Both markets registered their second consecutive week of increases. In contrast, Germany registered the largest drop, of 11%, marking three consecutive weeks of declines. In France, production fell by 1.9% following the previous week’s increase.
During the week, Spain set a new record for solar photovoltaic energy production for an October day, while Portugal and France registered their second‑highest values for that month. On October 13, Spain reached 194 GWh. Portugal registered 24 GWh on October 14 and France reached 117 GWh on October 15.
For the week of October 19, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate a production increase in the Italian market. In contrast, production will decline in the German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the week of October 12, wind energy production increased in Italy compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered a 34% increase, marking its second consecutive week of growth. In contrast, production declined in Germany, France, Portugal and Spain. Germany registered the largest drop, of 23%, reversing the previous week’s increase, while France registered a 19% decline following two weeks of growth. Production fell by 12% in Portugal and 1.0% in Spain. Both markets registered their second consecutive week of declines.
For the week of October 19, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate production increases in the German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, wind energy production will decline in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of October 12, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, of 4.5%, following two weeks of declines, as business activity recovered after the October 5 national holiday, Republic Day. In Great Britain, demand grew by 2.8%, marking its second consecutive week of increases. Germany, France and Belgium registered increases of 2.3%, 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively, with all three markets registering three consecutive weeks of growth. In contrast, demand declined by 0.7% in Spain and 0.6% in Italy. Both markets registered their sixth consecutive week of declines. In Spain, the decrease coincided with the October 12 national holiday, Spain’s National Day.
During the week, average temperatures declined in Germany, Italy, Great Britain and France compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest drop, of 4.6 °C, followed by Italy, with 1.8 °C. Temperatures fell by 0.7 °C in Great Britain and 0.4 °C in France. In contrast, Portugal registered the largest increase, of 1.0 °C, while temperatures rose by 0.2 °C in Spain and 0.1 °C in Belgium.
For the week of October 19, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the Portuguese, British, French, Belgian, Italian and Spanish markets. In contrast, demand will decline in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices across major European electricity markets increased in the week of October 12 compared to the previous week. The Nordic market registered the largest increase, of 74%. In contrast, the Spanish market registered the smallest increase, of 0.6%, followed by the Italian and Portuguese markets, both with increases of 3.9%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose by between 24% in the United Kingdom and 38% in France.
In the third week of October, the Italian market once again registered the highest weekly average price, at €225.21/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest, at €108.53/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €153.29/MWh in Spain to €191.10/MWh in Belgium.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their highest prices of the week on Friday, October 16. On that day, the Italian market reached €234.98/MWh, the highest price of the week among the markets in the analysis. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest daily price in this market since December 23, 2022. Furthermore, prices in the Italian market remained above €210/MWh every day of the third week of October. On Friday, the Belgian, Dutch, French, German and British markets registered €214.06/MWh, €212.76/MWh, €212.00/MWh, €210.67/MWh and €210.19/MWh, respectively. The Portuguese market reached its weekly high of €199.38/MWh that same Friday, while the Spanish market reached its weekly high of €193.11/MWh on Thursday, October 15. The Nordic market reached its weekly high of €159.34/MWh on Monday, October 12.
On Monday, October 19, prices increased across European markets and exceeded €205/MWh in most cases. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered prices of €215.11/MWh and €216.66/MWh, respectively. Both markets reached their highest prices since April 29, 2022. Furthermore, between 20:00 and 21:00, the Spanish market also reached its highest hourly price since September 11, 2022, at €296.93/MWh. The French market registered a price of €221.77/MWh, its highest price since December 19, 2022. The Italian market surpassed the high it had reached the previous Friday, registering a daily average of €262.63/MWh, its highest price since December 21, 2022.
Meanwhile, the Nordic market registered the lowest price of the week among the markets in the analysis, at €61.94/MWh, on Thursday, October 15. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their weekly lows of €76.28/MWh in both cases on Sunday, October 18. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price in both markets since July 27. The French and Belgian markets reached their weekly lows of €139.30/MWh and €163.38/MWh, respectively, on Saturday, October 17. On Tuesday, October 13, the British, German and Dutch markets registered their weekly lows of €139.50/MWh, €160.23/MWh and €164.05/MWh, respectively. The Italian market registered its weekly low of €210.85/MWh on October 14.
Lower wind energy production in Germany, France, Portugal and Spain, together with high gas prices, contributed to price increases in most markets. In Germany, France, Portugal, Belgium and Great Britain, higher demand also pushed prices upward, while lower solar energy production added further upward pressure in Germany and France. In Italy, high gas prices drove electricity market prices higher despite lower demand and increased wind and solar energy production. In contrast, higher solar photovoltaic energy production limited price increases in Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will decline in the German, French, British, Belgian and Dutch markets during the week of October 19. In contrast, prices will rise in the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their lowest settlement price of the week, at $105.69/bbl, on Tuesday, October 13. After rising by 3.7% from the previous session, these futures reached their highest settlement price of the week, at $109.86/bbl, on Friday, October 16. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price exceeded the previous Friday’s level by 4.9% and marked the highest level since May 20.
Brent oil futures settled above $105/bbl in every session of the third week of October as tensions in the Middle East and supply risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian energy facilities pushed prices higher. Expectations of an increase in Russian diesel exports following the agreement with the United States moderated price increases during some sessions. Nevertheless, supply concerns prevailed towards the end of the week, and Brent settled on Friday, October 16, at its highest level since May.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their lowest settlement price of the week, at €84.35/MWh, on Monday, October 12, up 3.6% from the previous Friday. On Tuesday, October 13, prices rose by 3.4% to €87.22/MWh. Prices subsequently declined through Thursday, October 15. On Friday, October 16, these futures registered their highest settlement price of the week, at €87.55/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since December 23, 2022, and exceeded the previous Friday’s level by 7.5%.
European Union gas storage levels stood at around 74% of capacity, below the five‑year average of approximately 89% for this time of year. Restrictions on LNG exports from the Middle East, due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, continued to constrain global supply and intensify competition for available cargoes. These factors, together with concerns about winter supply, exerted upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices reached their highest settlement level of the week, at €88.33/t, on Monday, October 12. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since January 28 and exceeded the previous Friday’s level by 1.6%. Prices subsequently declined over the remaining four sessions. On Friday, October 16, they registered their lowest settlement price of the week, at €85.42/t. This price stood 1.8% below the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, October 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 70th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session analyzed recent developments in European energy markets and their prospects for winter 2026‑2027, along with financing for renewable energy and storage projects. The webinar also addressed the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the role of forecasting in financing, audits and portfolio valuation. Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, Álvaro Osés Lainez, Manager, Treasury Advisory at Deloitte, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft, participated as speakers. All three also took part in the analysis panel, which took place exclusively during the Spanish‑language webinar. In that webinar, Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, moderated both the session and the analysis panel.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.