AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 18, 2026. In the second week of May, weekly average prices in the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week and mostly stayed below €100/MWh. Higher wind and solar energy production drove this trend. Germany reached its highest wind energy production for a day in May in the last four years, while TTF gas futures hit their highest settlement price since April 8.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 11, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, up 19%, after two weeks of declines, while the German market registered the smallest rise, 0.5%. Spain and France extended their upward trend for a second consecutive week, with increases of 6.1% and 8.5%, respectively. The Portuguese market stood as the exception, where photovoltaic energy production fell by 3.0%.
For the week of May 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to higher production in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the second week of May, wind energy production increased across most European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, up 120%, reversing the downward trend of the previous two weeks. The Spanish market registered the smallest rise, 21%, and extended its growth trend for a third consecutive week. The French and Italian markets registered wind energy production increases of 50% and 100%, respectively, reversing the declines registered over the previous two and three weeks in each case. In contrast, the Portuguese market registered a 7.1% drop in wind energy production.
On Tuesday, May 12, the German market reached its highest wind energy production for a day in May in the last four years, with 623 GWh.
For the third week of May, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate lower production in all analyzed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of May 11, electricity demand increased in the French, Italian and British electricity markets compared to the previous week, extending a two‑week upward trend. The French market registered the largest increase, 2.9%, followed by rises of 0.9% in the Italian market and 0.5% in the British market. In contrast, the German, Belgian and Iberian markets registered declines, reversing the upward trend from the previous week. The German market showed the largest drop, 6.9%, while the Belgian, Portuguese and Spanish markets registered declines of 2.0%, 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively.
During the week, average temperatures fell in most of these markets. Belgium and Germany registered the largest drops, 3.8 °C and 3.7 °C, respectively, while Italy registered the smallest decline, 0.7 °C. Great Britain and France registered decreases of 2.4 °C and 2.5 °C, respectively. In contrast, Spain and Portugal stood as the exception, with temperature increases of 0.1 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively.
During the week, the May 14 national holiday, Ascension Thursday, contributed to lower demand in Germany and Belgium. Meanwhile, lower temperatures compared to the previous week supported higher electricity demand in France, Italy and Great Britain. In the Iberian Peninsula, slightly higher temperatures contributed to lower demand.
For the week of May 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in Germany, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and Belgium. In contrast, demand will decline in France and Great Britain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the second week of May, daily prices in the main European electricity markets stayed below the levels reached during the previous week. As a result, weekly average prices fell across the European electricity markets compared to the prior week. The British market registered the smallest decline, a modest 0.1%. In contrast, the French market registered the largest percentage price drop, 40%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 7.5% in the Nordic market and 17% in the Spanish market.
In the week of May 11, weekly averages stayed below €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Italian and British markets stood as the exceptions, with averages of €116.22/MWh and €119.33/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the French, Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the lowest weekly averages, €44.02/MWh, €49.83/MWh and €49.98/MWh, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €90.29/MWh in the Belgian market to €98.87/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, the Spanish, French and Portuguese markets registered daily prices below €50/MWh in most sessions of the second week of May. The French market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €24.36/MWh, on Thursday, May 14.
On the other hand, daily prices in the Italian and British markets exceeded €100/MWh during the second week of May. The German, Belgian, Dutch and Nordic markets also registered prices above €100/MWh in at least one session during the week. On Friday, May 15, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €136.36/MWh.
In the week of May 11, higher wind and solar energy production pushed European electricity market prices downward. In some cases, lower demand also contributed to the decline.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices could rise in most European electricity markets during the third week of May, driven by lower wind energy production. In addition, demand will increase in some markets, while gas prices will continue to influence European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $104.21/bbl, on Monday, May 11. During the rest of the second week of May, prices remained above $105/bbl. On Friday, May 15, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $109.26/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 7.9% above the previous Friday’s level.
The United States’ rejection of Iran’s response to its peace proposal, the conflict’s impact on supply through the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of a ceasefire breakdown pushed Brent oil futures prices upward during the second week of May.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €46.23/MWh, on Monday, May 11. During the second week of May, prices followed an upward trend. As a result, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €50.17/MWh, on Friday, May 15. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 14% higher than the previous Friday’s and the highest since April 8.
During the second week of May, the lack of progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, together with concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, drove TTF gas futures prices higher. European storage levels currently remain below 40% on average, with several countries below 25%.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €77.17/t, on Monday, May 11. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since April 18. During the rest of the second week of May, settlement prices stayed below that level but remained above €75/t. On May 13, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €75.07/t. During the last sessions of the week, settlement prices increased. On Friday, May 15, the settlement price reached €75.62/t. This price stood 0.6% above the last session of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
The 66th edition of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s monthly webinar series will take place this Thursday, May 21. Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy communicator and consultant, will join the event as a guest speaker.
In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and their impact on energy storage, the webinar will analyze the role of batteries, storage and hybridization in the electricity system, along with their revenues and opportunities. The webinar will also cover success case studies in hybridization.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.