AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, August 10, 2026. In the first week of August, weekly prices fell in most of the main European electricity markets. In contrast, they rose in Italy, France, Spain and Portugal. The increase in wind energy production and the decline in demand favored this trend. Spain, Portugal, France and Germany set photovoltaic energy production records for a day in August. Brent oil and TTF gas futures fell on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while CO2 futures rose.
Solar photovoltaic energy production and wind energy production
In the week of August 3, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German and French markets compared with the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, of 1.7%, and accumulated its second week of rises, while France registered an increase of 0.2%. In contrast, solar energy production fell in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. Portugal recorded the largest decline, of 6.7%, followed by Italy, with a fall of 1.1%, while Spain registered the smallest drop, of 0.1%.
Spain, Portugal, France and Germany reached their all-time highs of solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in August. Spain registered its high on August 5, with 277 GWh, the highest daily production of 2026. Portugal reached its record on August 6, with 33 GWh, while France and Germany reached theirs on August 7 and 8, with 190 GWh and 465 GWh, respectively.
For the week of August 10, the solar energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting point to a decline in the German market and a slight decrease in the Spanish market. In contrast, the forecasts indicate an increase in solar energy production in the Italian market.
In the first week of August, wind energy production increased in most of the main European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, of 37%, followed by France, with 27%, and Germany, with 15%. In contrast, wind energy production fell by 5.7% in Spain and by 11% in Italy. Both markets accumulated their second week of declines.
For the week of August 10, the wind energy forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting point to declines in the French, Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, the forecasts indicate increases in the Italian and German markets.
Electricity demand
In the first week of August, electricity demand fell in most of the main European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Germany registered the largest decline, of 3.7%, followed by Italy, with 3.6%. Demand also fell by 3.0% in France and Great Britain and by 2.7% in Portugal. Spain recorded the smallest drop, of 1.5%, and accumulated its third week of declines. In contrast, demand rose by 1.1% in Belgium.
During the week, average temperatures rose in most of the analyzed markets. Germany and Italy registered the largest increases, of 0.7°C in both cases. In Spain, average temperatures rose by 0.3°C and, in France and Portugal, by 0.2°C. In contrast, they fell by 0.4°C in Great Britain and Belgium.
The fall in electricity demand in most markets coincided with the start of the August holiday period in much of Europe, which reduces industrial and commercial activity. In Belgium, in contrast, demand rose despite this context.
For the week of August 10, the demand forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate increases in the markets of Great Britain, Belgium and France. In contrast, demand will fall in the markets of Portugal, Italy, Spain and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices fell in most of the main European electricity markets during the first week of August compared with the previous week. The German market registered the smallest decline, of 1.5%, while the British market reached the largest percentage fall, of 13%. In the rest of the markets where prices fell, the declines ranged between 2.6% in the Belgian market and 6.9% in the Nord Pool market. In contrast, prices rose in the Italian, French, Spanish and Portuguese markets. Italy reached the largest percentage price increase, of 5.4%, while Portugal registered the smallest rise, of 0.2%. For their part, the French and Spanish markets registered increases of 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
In the week of August 3, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, of €186.72/MWh, followed by the British market, with €125.56/MWh. In contrast, the Nord Pool market registered the lowest weekly average, of €44.01/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €107.71/MWh in the French market and €121.44/MWh in the Portuguese market.
As regards daily prices, the Italian market registered prices above €150/MWh throughout the first week of August. On August 5, this market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, of €207.84/MWh. This was its highest price since December 31, 2022.
The Nord Pool market, for its part, registered daily prices below €85/MWh throughout the week. From August 6, its prices fell notably and on Sunday, August 9 they reached €12.90/MWh, the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets. That same day, all the analyzed markets except the British one also registered their lowest daily price of the week, with values ranging between €90.93/MWh in the French market and €152.07/MWh in the Italian market.
The increase in wind energy production and the decline in demand drove the fall in prices in most European electricity markets during the first week of August. In Italy, in contrast, lower wind energy production contributed to the rise in prices, despite the fall in demand.
The price forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that, in the week of August 10, prices will rise in most of the analyzed European electricity markets, in a context of falling wind energy production in France and the Iberian Peninsula. In contrast, prices will fall in the Italian market, where wind and solar energy production will increase.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front-Month on the ICE market reached their highest weekly settlement price, of $83.77/bbl, on Monday, August 3, 7.0% lower than that of the previous Friday. After a 5.3% fall compared with the previous day, on Tuesday, August 4 these futures registered their lowest weekly settlement price, of $79.36/bbl. In the following sessions, prices recovered and on Friday, August 7 they settled at $83.55/bbl, 7.3% below the previous Friday.
Optimism about possible progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz favored the fall in Brent oil prices at the start of the first week of August. However, doubts about the conditions for restoring maritime traffic through the strait increased in the second half of the week and favored the recovery of prices. The points of disagreement included the access conditions for United States and Israeli vessels and the transit fees.
As regards TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front-Month, on Monday, August 3 they reached their highest weekly settlement price, of €57.51/MWh, 2.7% lower than that of the previous Friday. Prices continued to fall during the following two sessions and on Wednesday, August 5 these futures registered their lowest weekly settlement price, of €52.40/MWh. On Thursday, prices rebounded by 6.4%. On Friday, August 7, the settlement price was €55.54/MWh, 6.0% lower than that of the previous Friday.
Improved expectations about a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also favored the fall in TTF gas prices at the start of the week. However, gas reserves in Europe stood slightly below 58% of their storage capacity, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. The low level of the reserves and the uncertainty about liquefied natural gas supplies limited the scope for prices to fall.
As regards CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2026 reference contract, on Monday, August 3 they registered their lowest weekly settlement price, of €80.87/t. From that low, prices followed an upward trend, despite a slight setback on Wednesday. On Friday, August 7, these futures reached their highest weekly settlement price, of €83.29/t, 2.5% higher than that of the previous Friday.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
In a context of divergent prices in European electricity markets such as the one registered in the first week of August, energy storage and self-consumption are gaining prominence as a response from the energy sector industry. On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 69th edition of its series of monthly webinars. This edition will focus on the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as on the current situation, the expected development and the main challenges of energy storage. It will also address the progress, challenges and opportunities of self-consumption. The speakers will be Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. The analysis panel of the webinar in Spanish will also include Francisco Valverde Sánchez, technical telecommunications engineer and independent professional in renewable energy development. The webinar will be moderated by Antonio Delgado Rigal, CEO of AleaSoft.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
