AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 7, 2026. In the first week of September, Spain and Portugal reached their highest daily electricity prices since December 2022, while Italy reached its highest level since January 2023, amid lower wind energy production, higher demand and elevated gas prices. The main European electricity markets set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a September day. TTF gas futures reached their highest price since January 2023, driven by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger gas demand in Europe.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week starting August 31, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. France registered the largest increase, at 30%, followed by Portugal, at 26%. Germany registered the smallest increase, at 0.3%, while production rose by 4.5% in Italy and 13% in Spain.
Germany extended the upward trend that began the previous week. In France and Portugal, solar photovoltaic energy production increased again after two weeks of declines. In Spain and Italy, the increase ended a four‑week downward trend.
During the week, all analyzed markets set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a September day. Portugal reached its record on September 2, with 31 GWh, and Spain reached its record on September 3, with 267 GWh. France and Italy set new records on September 4, with 155 GWh and 143 GWh, respectively. Germany ended the week with a record of 389 GWh on September 6.
For the week starting September 7, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to higher production in the Italian and Spanish markets and lower production in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the first week of September, wind energy production increased by 19% in Germany compared with the previous week. Production declined in the other analyzed markets. Portugal registered the largest decrease, at 55%, followed by Spain, at 40%. Wind energy production fell by 25% in France and 14% in Italy.
Germany extended its upward trend for a third consecutive week. In France, Portugal, Spain and Italy, wind energy production reversed direction after two weeks of increases.
For the week starting September 7, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to higher production in the Portuguese and Spanish markets and lower production in the German, French and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week starting August 31, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Spain registered the largest increase, at 11%, followed by Italy, at 9.3%. Demand also increased by 7.2% in Portugal, 3.5% in Germany and 2.8% in France. In contrast, demand fell by 2.3% in Great Britain and 0.9% in Belgium.
Spain and Portugal reversed direction after six and four weeks of declines, respectively. Germany, France and Italy extended their upward trends for a second consecutive week.
During the week, average temperatures rose by 2.8 °C in Portugal, 1.8 °C in Spain and 0.3 °C in Belgium. In contrast, temperatures fell in France, Germany, Great Britain and Italy, with decreases ranging from 0.3 °C in France to 1.2 °C in Italy.
The increase in temperatures on the Iberian Peninsula coincided with a period of high temperatures in Spain, where temperatures exceeded 43 °C in Andalusia. This heat episode coincided with higher electricity demand in Spain and Portugal. In several of the main European markets, the beginning of September also coincided with the return of activity after the August vacation period. In Great Britain, the Summer Bank Holiday on August 31 contributed to the decline in demand.
For the week starting September 7, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate declines in the German, French, Spanish, Italian and British markets. In contrast, demand will increase in the Portuguese and Belgian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices in the main European markets showed mixed trends in the first week of September. Portugal and Spain registered the largest price increases, at 36% in both cases, followed by Italy, with a 4.5% increase. The Dutch market changed very little, with a 1.4% increase. In contrast, the British market registered the largest decline, at 21%, followed by Germany, with an 8.9% decrease. Prices also fell in the Nordic, Belgian and French markets, ranging from 4.2% in the Nordic market to 1.6% in France.
In the week starting August 31, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, at €202.89/MWh. The Portuguese and Spanish markets followed, at €144.71/MWh and €144.51/MWh, respectively. At the other end of the range, the Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, at €86.05/MWh, followed by the German market, at €113.09/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, average prices ranged from €119.25/MWh in the French market to €128.02/MWh in the Belgian market.
Daily prices in the main European electricity markets remained above €100/MWh during almost the entire first week of September. In the Italian market, prices exceeded €210/MWh from September 2 through September 4. Daily prices reached their weekly highs on September 2 in the German, French, Italian, British, Belgian and Dutch markets, at €163.73/MWh, €163.60/MWh, €212.71/MWh, €178.88/MWh, €172.18/MWh and €167.24/MWh, respectively. In the Italian market, this price marked the highest level since January 1, 2023. On September 7, the price in this market rose even further, to €218.93/MWh, although it remained below the level registered on December 31, 2022. The Nordic market reached its weekly high on September 1, at €124.64/MWh. Meanwhile, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered their highest prices of the week on September 4, at €170.36/MWh and €169.50/MWh, respectively. In both cases, these levels marked their highest prices since December 6, 2022. On September 7, both markets reached an even higher value of €172.07/MWh, although this figure still remained below the level registered on December 5, 2022.
On September 5, most of the analyzed markets registered their weekly minimum prices. That day, the German market price fell to €42.14/MWh, while the Nordic market closed at €18.42/MWh. The French, British, Belgian and Dutch markets also reached their lowest prices of the week that day, ranging from €75.57/MWh in the Dutch market to €89.42/MWh in the Belgian market. In contrast, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered their lowest daily prices on August 31, at €106.53/MWh and €106.51/MWh, respectively.
The episode of unusually hot weather in Spain boosted electricity demand on the Iberian Peninsula during the week. The 40% drop in wind energy production in Spain and the 55% decline in Portugal also contributed to the sharp increase in prices in both markets. Higher demand, lower wind energy production and elevated gas prices also pushed the Italian market’s weekly average above €200/MWh. In contrast, Great Britain, where demand fell by 2.3% and average temperatures dropped by 0.9 °C, registered the largest percentage decline in prices among the analyzed markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts point to lower prices in the Portuguese and Spanish markets for the week starting September 7, amid a recovery in wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula. In the other analyzed markets, prices will increase as wind energy production declines. Solar energy production will also decrease in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market increased steadily during the first week of September. On Monday, August 31, they settled at their weekly low of $90.49/bbl, 1.3% higher than the previous Friday. On Friday, September 4, they reached their weekly settlement high of $96.28/bbl, 7.8% higher than the previous Friday. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since July 25.
Brent oil futures prices increased amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the United States and Iran exchanged attacks that affected oil tankers and heightened the risk of further disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly settlement low of €69.81/MWh on Monday, August 31, already 4.2% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise and reached their weekly high of €73.63/MWh on September 2. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since January 10, 2023. During the final two trading sessions of the week, prices remained slightly below €72/MWh. On Friday, September 4, the settlement price stood at €71.95/MWh, 7.4% higher than the previous Friday.
As with Brent oil futures, rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced liquefied natural gas flows from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to Europe. Together with stronger European demand, this reduction pushed TTF gas futures prices higher during the first week of September.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly settlement low of €83.10/t on August 31, already 0.4% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to increase during most trading sessions in the first week of September. As a result, on Friday, September 4, these futures reached their weekly settlement high of €84.18/t, 1.7% higher than the previous Friday. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the highest level since August 26.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 69th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session will cover the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the current situation, expected development and main challenges facing energy storage. The speakers will also analyze developments in self‑consumption, its current challenges and the opportunities it offers to optimize installations and reduce exposure to price volatility. The speakers will include Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. Francisco Valverde Sánchez, an independent renewable energy development professional, will also participate in the panel discussion of the Spanish‑language webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.