AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 13, 2026. In the week of October 5, weekly prices fell in most European electricity markets, supported by higher wind energy production in Germany and France and, in the Iberian Peninsula, by lower demand and higher solar energy production. Italy was the exception, driven by rising gas prices and lower solar energy production. Germany, France and Spain set records for photovoltaic energy production for an October day. TTF gas prices rose due to low European storage levels and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of October 5, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in Spain, Portugal and France compared with the previous week. Spain registered the largest increase, 16%, after the decline of the previous week. In Portugal, production increased by 0.6% after three consecutive weeks of declines, while in France it rose by 0.4%, reversing the decrease of the previous week. Italy registered the largest decline, 32%, followed by Germany, with a 20% decrease. Both markets registered their second consecutive week of declines.
During the week, Germany, France and Spain reached record solar photovoltaic energy production levels for an October day. On October 5, Germany registered 297 GWh and France 126 GWh. Spain reached 184 GWh on October 10.
For the week of October 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in production in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the week of October 5, wind energy production increased in Italy, Germany and France compared with the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 167%, after the decline of the previous week. In Germany, production increased by 136% after two consecutive weeks of declines. France registered a 46% increase and registered its second consecutive week of growth. Wind energy production decreased in Portugal and Spain. Portugal registered the largest decline, 17%, while production in Spain fell by 13%. Both markets therefore reversed the increases of the previous week.
For the week of October 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate a production increase in the Italian market. Wind energy production will decrease in the German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of October 5, electricity demand increased in Great Britain, France, Belgium and Germany compared with the previous week. Great Britain registered the largest increase, 4.9%, after the decline of the previous week. In France, Belgium and Germany, demand increased by 1.7%, 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively, and all three markets registered their second consecutive week of increases.
Demand decreased in Spain, Portugal and Italy. Spain registered the largest decline, 6.5%. In Portugal, demand fell by 6.4%, supported by the October 5 national holiday, Republic Day. In Italy, demand decreased by 1.6%. Spain and Italy registered their fifth consecutive week of declines, while Portugal registered its second consecutive week of lower demand.
During the week, average temperatures decreased in all analyzed markets compared with the previous week. France registered the largest drop, 3.8 °C, followed by Spain, with 2.7 °C, and Portugal, with 2.3 °C. In Great Britain, Germany and Belgium, temperature declines ranged from 2.1 °C in Great Britain to 1.9 °C in Belgium. Italy registered the smallest decrease, 1.0 °C.
For the week of October 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the Portuguese, British, German and French markets. Demand will decrease in the Italian, Spanish and Belgian markets. In Spain, the expected decline coincides with the October 12 national holiday, Spain’s National Day.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices fell in most major European electricity markets in the week of October 5 compared with the previous week. The Nordic market registered the largest decline, 38%. The French market followed with a 27% decrease and the German market with a 24% decline. Prices also fell by 23% in Belgium, 22% in the Netherlands and 16% in the United Kingdom. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the smallest declines, 8.1% and 7.8%, respectively. In contrast, the Italian market registered a 7.8% increase.
The Italian market once again registered the highest weekly average, at €216.72/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest, at €62.50/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €131.60/MWh in France to €153.59/MWh in Portugal.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their highest prices of the week on Tuesday, October 6. On that day, the Italian market reached €233.27/MWh, the highest daily price of the week among the analyzed markets. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price in this market since December 23, 2022. In addition, prices in the Italian market remained above €210/MWh from Monday through Saturday. On the same day, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered €206.68/MWh and €201.99/MWh, respectively, their highest prices since December 6, 2022. On October 6, the Belgian, Dutch, German, French and British markets also reached their weekly highs, ranging from €201.01/MWh in the United Kingdom to €204.71/MWh in Belgium. The Nordic market registered its highest price of the week, €120.19/MWh, on Thursday, October 8.
On the other hand, the Nordic market registered the lowest price of the week among the analyzed markets, €24.84/MWh, on Tuesday, October 6. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their weekly lows, both at €106.90/MWh, on Thursday, October 8. On Saturday, October 10, the British, Dutch, German, French and Belgian markets registered their lowest prices of the week, ranging from €45.82/MWh in the United Kingdom to €52.13/MWh in Belgium. The Italian market registered its weekly low, €182.31/MWh, on Sunday, October 11.
Higher wind energy production in markets such as Germany and France contributed to lower prices in most markets despite the increase in gas prices. In the Iberian Peninsula, lower demand and higher solar energy production contributed to falling prices. In contrast, in Italy, higher gas prices and lower solar energy production pushed electricity market prices upward.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will increase in most European electricity markets in the week of October 12. Prices will decrease in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market settled at $100.32/bbl on Monday, October 5, 1.9% below the previous Friday. On October 7, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $100.20/bbl. On Thursday, October 8, prices rose by 4.1% compared with the previous day and exceeded $104/bbl. On Friday, October 9, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $104.72/bbl, 2.4% above the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise on Monday, October 12, reaching a settlement price of $106.65/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since September 16.
The increase in attacks and threats against maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns and pushed prices upward on October 8. Production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Isaias added further pressure. On Friday, the hurricane forced operators to halt more than 70% of oil production in the area. That day, statements from the President of the United States about progress in talks with Iran temporarily eased supply concerns, although the hurricane’s impact ultimately pushed prices higher.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €73.51/MWh on Monday, October 5, 1.7% below the previous Friday. Prices then increased in every trading session of the week. On Friday, October 9, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €81.43/MWh, 8.9% above the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise on Monday, October 12, reaching a settlement price of €84.35/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since December 23, 2022.
European Union gas storage levels remained low for this time of year. These low storage levels, falling temperatures and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to limit LNG shipments from the Middle East, supported the rise in TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €83.87/t on Monday, October 5. This price stood 0.6% below the previous Friday and marked the lowest level since September 4. Prices then rose in every trading session of the week. On Friday, October 9, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €86.95/t, 3.0% above the previous Friday. On Monday, October 12, the settlement price rose further to €88.33/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since January 28.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, October 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 70th edition of its monthly webinar series. Deloitte will participate in the October webinar for the seventh consecutive year. The speakers will share their views on financing renewable energy and storage projects in the current energy market environment. The session will analyze recent developments in the main European energy markets and their prospects for winter 2026‑2027, with particular attention to high gas prices and the signals that electricity futures markets show for the coming months. The webinar will also address the prospects for batteries and hybridization, their role in the development of new projects and the main challenges and opportunities associated with these technologies. In addition, the speakers will analyze the role of forecasting in financing processes, audits and portfolio valuations. The speakers will be Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, Álvaro Osés Lainez, Manager, Treasury Advisory at Deloitte, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. They will also participate in the analysis panel during the Spanish‑language webinar. Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, will moderate the Spanish‑language webinar and the analysis panel.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.