AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 2, 2025. During the last week of May, prices fell in most major European electricity markets, although they rose in the Iberian, French and Italian markets due to increased demand and lower wind energy production. Solar photovoltaic energy production registered all‑time or May highs in several markets, which helped to contain prices in some cases. In terms of demand, holidays and high temperatures led to declines in the north and increases in the south. Gas and CO₂ prices fell compared to the previous week.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 26, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 22%, while Portugal showed the smallest growth, 3.1%. France and Spain increased their production by 4.8% and 14%, respectively. The Iberian Peninsula registered its fourth consecutive week of growth. On the other hand, Germany reduced its production for the second week, this time with a fall of 2.8%.
During the week, the markets of Portugal, Spain, France and Italy registered solar photovoltaic energy production records. On Tuesday, May 27, Portugal broke its all‑time record with a production of 28 GWh. On the same day, Spain reached its highest daily value of production with this technology in a May month, with 205 GWh, which also represents the second highest value in its history. On May 30, France and Italy reached all‑time highs of solar photovoltaic energy production, with 143 GWh and 156 GWh, respectively.
For the first week of June, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, generation using this technology will increase in Germany, while it will decrease in Italy and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the last week of May, wind energy production increased in the French market for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.8%. In contrast, the markets of Germany, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula registered decreases in production with this technology, following increases in the previous week. Portugal and Spain had the largest declines, 45% and 34%, respectively. Germany registered the smallest drop, 1.6%, and Italy reduced its production by 21%.
On May 28, the French market reached its second highest wind energy production for a May month in history, with 247 GWh.
For the week of June 2, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will increase in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula, Germany and France. In contrast, forecasts point to a decrease in wind energy production in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of May 26, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest drop, 4.9%, reversing the upward trend of the previous week. The French market registered the smallest decline, 2.5%, with demand falling for the second consecutive week. Demand also declined in the markets of Great Britain, by 3.6%, and Belgium, by 3.7%. The decline in demand in these markets was favored by the Spring Bank Holiday celebrated in Great Britain on May 26 and the Ascension Day celebrated in Germany, Belgium and France on May 29.
Demand increased in the southern European markets. Spain registered the largest increase, 7.5%, with the first heat wave of the season. The Portuguese and Italian markets registered smaller increases, 3.6% and 1.6%, respectively, reversing the downward trend of the previous week.
Simultaneously, as summer approaches, average temperatures increased in all analyzed markets. Increases ranged from 1.8 °C in Great Britain to 4.3 °C in Germany.
For the week of June 2, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the upward trend will predominate. Demand will increase in the French, German, Belgian, Italian and Portuguese markets. On the other hand, demand will decline in the Spanish and British markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the last week of May, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. However, prices increased in the Iberian, French and Italian markets. The MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain reached the largest percentage price increases, 163% and 207%, respectively. In the case of the EPEX SPOT market of France, the rise was 45%, while the weekly average increased by 1.3% in the IPEX market of Italy, although since Wednesday, May 28, prices in this market mostly showed a downward trend. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 9.4% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands and 28% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
In the week of May 26, weekly averages were below €65/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, which averaged €97.77/MWh. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries reached the lowest weekly average, €15.94/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €28.00/MWh in the French market to €61.93/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market registered averages below €10/MWh for three days of the last week of May. On Sunday, June 1, this market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €6.92/MWh. On the other hand, the Italian market reached prices above €100/MWh on three occasions in the last week of May. On Tuesday, May 27, it registered the highest average of the week, €115.18/MWh.
As for hourly prices, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices in the last week of May. The exceptions were the Italian and Portuguese markets. Most markets reached their lowest prices on Sunday, June 1. The German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered the lowest hourly price of the week from 14:00 to 15:00, which was ‑€20.41/MWh. In the case of the Nordic market, on Saturday, May 31, from 13:00 to 14:00, it reached its lowest hourly price since August 26, 2024, ‑€2.71/MWh.
In the week of May 26, the decline in the weekly price of gas and CO2 emission allowances, as well as the fall in demand in some markets, led to lower prices in most European electricity markets. However, the increase in demand and the fall in wind energy production in Spain, Italy and Portugal contributed to the increase in prices in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of June, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in demand in most of them.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained below $65/bbl in the last week of May. On May 28, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $64.90/bbl. Subsequently, prices declined. As a result, on Friday, May 30, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $63.90/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.4% lower than the previous Friday.
In the last week of May, concerns about the evolution of the global economy continued to put downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. Expectations of further increases in OPEC+ production also contributed to the price decline. On Saturday, May 31, OPEC+ agreed to increase its production in July by the same amount as in May and June, 411 000 barrels per day.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, May 26, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €37.52/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 4. In the rest of the sessions of the last week of May, prices decreased. As a result, on Friday, May 30, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €34.23/MWh. This price was 6.1% lower than the previous Friday.
TTF gas futures registered settlement prices above €37/MWh in the first sessions of the last week of May, influenced by disruptions in gas supply from Norway due to maintenance works in different fields. However, concerns about demand due to trade tensions exerted their downward influence on the prices of these futures, which declined in most sessions.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.03/t, on Monday, May 26. However, in most sessions of the last week of May, prices fell. On Friday, May 30, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.41/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.6% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis: market evolution and prospects for renewable energy and PPA
The 56th edition of the monthly webinar series organized by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on June 12. On this occasion, speakers from Engie Spain will participate for the seventh time in these sessions. During the webinar, growth opportunities for the renewable sector and the current situation of the PPA market in Spain will be discussed. As in each edition, there will be an analysis of the recent evolution of the main European energy markets and the prospects for the second half of 2025.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
