AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 5, 2025. In the week of April 28, prices in the main European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. Falling demand and gas prices, as well as increased renewable energy production, supported these declines. Photovoltaic energy set all‑time generation records in France and Italy, as well as the highest production for a day in April in Germany. Wind energy production increased in the continent’s major markets. TTF gas futures reached the lowest settlement price since July 2024 and Brent futures since March 2021.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of April 28, solar photovoltaic energy production registered a significant increase in Germany and France, with rises of 30% and 22%, respectively. Italy also registered an increase, although more modest, 6.5%. These markets continued their upward trend for the second consecutive week. However, in Spain and Portugal, production dropped considerably. In Spain, the decline was 40%, while in Portugal it fell by 31%. These decreases were influenced by the blackout that affected these markets on Monday, April 28, disrupting production and demand in both markets.
During the week, several European markets reached all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On April 28, Germany reached its highest solar photovoltaic energy production for an April month, with 397 GWh. On April 30, France registered its historical record for production using this technology, with 135 GWh, and on the same day, Italy also reached its all‑time maximum, with a production of 150 GWh.
For the week of May 5, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, Spain will increase its solar photovoltaic energy production, while Germany and Italy will register decreases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
(*) In Spain and Portugal, data for April 28, the day of the blackout, are not included.
During the week of April 28, wind energy production increased in the main European markets, reversing the downward trend of the previous week. In the Iberian Peninsula, despite the impact of the blackout of Monday, April 28, both Spain and Portugal closed the week with increases of 12% and 47%, respectively. Germany, Italy and France also increased their production, with rises of 18%, 17% and 10% in each case.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will increase in Germany and France during the week of May 5, while it will decrease in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of April 28, electricity demand fell in most major European markets. Spain registered the largest reduction, 13%, followed by France and Portugal, with falls of 11% and 8.6%, respectively. Great Britain, Germany and Belgium also registered declines, 7.6%, 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Germany maintained its downward trend for the seventh consecutive week, while Belgium registered the same behavior for the third week. France and Portugal continued their declines for the second week. Italy was the only market where demand increased by 3.5%.
Average temperatures rose in all markets. France, Belgium and Germany registered the largest increases, with rises of 4.6 °C, 4.0 °C and 3.5 °C, respectively. Great Britain also registered an increase of 3.2 °C, while in Spain and Portugal the rise was 0.9 °C in both cases.
Rising temperatures favored the drop in demand. In addition, the May 1 holiday, International Workers’ Day, reduced work activity in several markets, reinforcing this trend. In Spain and Portugal, the blackout that interrupted the electricity supply on Monday, April 28, caused an anomalous behavior of demand, making the drop in weekly demand greater. In the case of Italy, although May 1 was also a public holiday, demand recovered after two public holidays were celebrated the previous week, on April 21, Easter Monday, and April 25, Liberation Day.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in most major European markets during the week of May 5. Spain and Portugal will register a recovery after the impact of the blackout and the public holiday. In contrast, Great Britain will register a slight decline, associated in part with the national holiday on Monday, May 5, the “Early May Bank Holiday”.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of May, average prices of the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Spain reached the largest percentage price drops, 59% in both cases. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest declines, 13% and 14%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices declined between 27% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands and 57% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of April 28, weekly averages remained below €65/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Italian and British markets, whose averages were €76.88/MWh and €80.91/MWh, respectively. The Spanish and Portuguese markets had the lowest weekly averages, €15.36/MWh and €16.50/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €21.64/MWh in the Nordic market to €60.04/MWh in the German market.
It is worth noting that, in the week of April 28, the beginning of which coincided with the day of the blackout that affected the Iberian Peninsula, the coupling between the hourly prices of Spain and Portugal was 54%. This value represents a significant decrease when compared with the 84% coupling of the previous week, with the 95% registered in 2025 up to the day before the blackout and the 94% of 2024. According to data from Red Eléctrica, in the week under analysis, electricity exports to Portugal decreased by 71% compared to the previous week.
Regarding daily prices, on May 2 the Nordic market registered the lowest price of the week of the analyzed markets, €4.97/MWh. This was the lowest price in the Nordic market since March 23. The Spanish, French and Portuguese markets also registered prices below €10/MWh in the first week of May. In the case of the French market, on May 1, it reached its lowest price since July 7, 2024, €5.90/MWh. On Sunday, May 4, the Italian market reached its lowest price since May 17, 2021, €51.10/MWh.
As for hourly prices, most markets registered negative hourly prices in the first week of May. On Thursday, May 1, from 15:00 to 16:00, the Spanish market reached its historical minimum hourly price, ‑€10.00/MWh. On that day, from 14:00 to 15:00, the hourly price of the French market was ‑€118.01/MWh, its lowest price since July 3, 2023. In the case of the German market, on May 1, from 13:00 to 14:00, the price was ‑€129.99/MWh. This price was the lowest in the German market since May 13, 2024. On the other hand, the Italian market registered a price of €0.00/MWh on May 1, from 14:00 to 15:00. This is the minimum hourly value of the Italian market, which was last registered on April 13, 2020.
In the week of April 28, the decline in the weekly gas price, the increase in wind energy production, as well as the fall in demand in most markets, led to lower weekly prices in European electricity markets. In addition, solar energy production increased in the German, French and Italian markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of May, prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in electricity demand. In addition, wind energy production will fall in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. Solar energy production will also fall in the Italian market, as well as in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a downward trend during the first week of May. On Monday, April 28, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $65.86/bbl. As a result of the declines, on Friday, May 2, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $61.29/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 8.3% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since March 24, 2021.
Expectations of further production increases by OPEC+, as well as concerns about demand, exerted their downward influence on Brent oil futures prices in the first week of May. Despite a possible easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, the settlement price in the last session of the week was the lowest in the last four years.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they remained below €33/MWh during most of the first week of May. On Tuesday, April 29, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €32.11/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since July 24, 2024. On the other hand, after a 2.9% rise from the previous day, on Friday, May 2, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €33.08/MWh. This price was 2.0% higher than the previous Friday.
Stable supply and high temperatures helped keep TTF gas futures prices below €33/MWh for most of the first week of May. However, forecasts of cooler temperatures, as well as expectations of improved trade relations between China and the United States, pushed prices higher at the end of the week.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Tuesday, April 29, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €64.85/t. In the remaining sessions of the first week of May, settlement prices remained above €65/t. On Friday, May 2, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €68.76/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.5% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since April 2.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
The 55th webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on Thursday, May 22. This webinar will focus on batteries and will analyze the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and their financial optimization, as well as regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. In addition, there will be the usual analysis of the evolution and prospects of European energy markets. The webinar will feature the participation of Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy. In addition, Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former Minister of the Spanish Government and former President of Red Eléctrica, will participate in the analysis table after the webinar in Spanish. Hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, as well as transmission and distribution grids, will be other topics to be analyzed at the analysis table.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
