AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, February 2, 2026. In the last week of January, weekly prices in most major European electricity markets rose slightly compared to the previous week and stayed above €110/MWh. By contrast, the Iberian market decoupled once again, with averages close to €20/MWh, supported by wind energy production and lower electricity demand. In Italy, photovoltaic energy production reached its highest level ever for a January day. TTF gas and Brent futures hit their highest levels since June and August 2025, respectively, while CO₂ futures reached their lowest level since November.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of January 26, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the French and Italian markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 41%, while France registered its second consecutive weekly increase, with growth of 13%. In contrast, the Iberian markets and the German market registered declines in generation from this technology. Portugal and Spain continued their downward trend for a third consecutive week, with drops of 30% and 34%, respectively. The German market registered the largest decline, 64%, after showing an upward trend during the previous two weeks.
On January 27, the Italian market reached an all‑time record for photovoltaic energy production for a January day, generating 69 GWh.
For the week of February 2, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production will increase in the German, Spanish and Italian markets compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the last week of January, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 14%, while the Portuguese market registered the smallest rise, 10%. Both markets maintained their upward trend for a second consecutive week. Wind energy production also increased in the German market, with a rise of 13%, reversing the downward trend registered over the previous three weeks. In the Spanish market, wind energy production remained close to the previous week’s level, with a slight decrease of 2.5%, while France registered a 32% drop compared to the previous week.
During the week, on January 28, the Italian market reached its third‑highest historical wind energy production for a January day, generating 173 GWh, following the records set on January 9 and 10, 2026, 182 GWh and 188 GWh, respectively.
For the first week of February, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production from this technology will increase in the German, French and Spanish markets. However, Portugal and Italy will register declines.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of January 26, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The British market registered the largest increase, 3.7%, after two weeks of declines. The Italian and German markets registered the smallest increases, 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, and extended their upward trend to a fifth consecutive week. The French market registered its second consecutive weekly increase, with growth of 1.4%.
By contrast, the Iberian markets and Belgium reduced demand compared to the previous week. The Belgian market registered the smallest decline, 0.8%, and accumulated three consecutive weeks of decreases. The Spanish and Portuguese markets reversed their upward trend and registered drops of 2.3% and 7.5%, respectively, after three consecutive weeks of increases.
In the last week of January, average temperatures rose in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 2.2 °C, while France showed the smallest rise, 0.1 °C. Average temperatures increased by 0.2 °C in Italy, 1.6 °C in Germany and 2.0 °C in Spain. In contrast, Great Britain and Belgium registered average temperature declines of 1.3 °C and 2.0 °C, respectively.
For the first week of February, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in Great Britain, Belgium and Spain. In contrast, demand will decline in Germany, Portugal, Italy and France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the last week of January, prices in most European electricity markets rose slightly compared to the second half of the previous week. As a result, weekly average prices increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The IPEX market of Italy and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal were the exceptions, with declines of 4.7%, 64% and 73%, respectively. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price increase, 8.5%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 1.2% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 7.8% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of January 26, weekly averages exceeded €110/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Portuguese and Spanish markets were the exceptions, with averages of €17.25/MWh and €23.03/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €140.74/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €111.50/MWh in France to €123.31/MWh in Germany.
Regarding daily prices, most of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered prices above €90/MWh during the last week of January. The MIBEL market was the exception, with daily prices remaining below €40/MWh. On Sunday, February 1, the Portuguese market registered the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €1.04/MWh. This value marked its lowest daily price since April 9, 2024. In the Spanish market, the price reached €5.57/MWh on Saturday, January 31, the lowest daily price in this market since May 24, 2025.
Meanwhile, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the German, Belgian, Italian and Dutch markets registered daily prices above €130/MWh in some sessions of the last week of January. In the Italian market, daily prices exceeded €145/MWh during the first four days of the week. This market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €150.97/MWh, on Tuesday, January 27.
During the week of January 26, rising gas prices, higher demand and lower solar energy production in most markets contributed to higher European electricity market prices. In France, lower wind energy production also supported price increases. However, lower demand in Spain and Portugal led to price declines in the MIBEL market. In addition, wind energy production increased in Portugal, while Spain maintained similar wind energy production levels to the previous week and increased hydroelectric energy production. In the Italian market, higher wind and solar energy production also contributed to lower prices.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will fall in most major European electricity markets during the first week of February, driven by higher wind and solar energy production in most markets and lower demand in some cases. However, lower wind energy production in Portugal will push prices higher in that market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $65.59/bbl, on Monday, January 26. Prices then rose through Thursday, January 29, when these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $70.71/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since August 1, 2025. On Friday, January 30, the settlement price slipped slightly to $70.69/bbl. This price was still 7.3% higher than the previous Friday.
Growing concerns about potential impacts on global oil supply due to rising tensions between the United States and Iran drove Brent oil futures prices higher during the last week of January. A weaker dollar also supported the price increase. On the other hand, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday, February 1, to maintain the pause in production increases for March.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they remained above €38/MWh throughout the last week of January. On Tuesday, January 27, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €38.09/MWh. Prices rose in subsequent sessions. As a result, on Thursday, January 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €40.11/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this value marked the highest level since June 24, 2025. After a 2.1% drop from the previous day, on Friday, January 30, the settlement price stood at €39.29/MWh, 1.9% lower than the previous Friday.
During the last week of January, low European storage levels, supply disruptions from the United States due to adverse weather in that country and concerns about supply impacts from tensions in the Middle East pushed TTF gas futures settlement prices above €38/MWh throughout the week and to their highest level in recent months on January 29. However, the recovery of US supply contributed to lower prices at the end of the week.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they remained below €90/t during the last week of January. On Tuesday, January 27, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €88.37/t. Prices then declined and on Friday, January 30, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €81.26/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 8.1% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since November 1, 2025.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and battery storage
On Thursday, February 12, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 63rd edition of its monthly webinar series. Tomás García, Senior Director, Energy & Infrastructure Advisory at JLL, will participate in the webinar series for the fifth time. Key topics will include the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, insights from recent BESS transactions in Spain and the key valuation drivers for stand‑alone BESS projects in Spain.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.