AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 27, 2026. In the fourth week of April, prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week, supported by weaker demand and higher wind and solar energy production. Solar photovoltaic energy production set new records for an April day and even all‑time highs in markets such as Italy, while TTF gas and Brent oil futures climbed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of April 20, solar photovoltaic energy production increased across much of Europe. The German and Italian markets reversed the previous week’s downward trend and registered the largest gains, 46% and 25%, respectively. The French market registered the smallest increase, 2.3%, extending its upward movement for a third consecutive week. Meanwhile, the Portuguese market raised production for the second week in a row, this time by 5.4%. In contrast, the Spanish market broke the previous week’s upward trend, with solar photovoltaic energy production falling by 13%.
That same week, most analyzed markets registered solar photovoltaic energy production records. On Monday, April 20, the French market reached its highest solar photovoltaic energy production ever registered for an April day, 149 GWh. The German market hit its highest April‑day production on April 22, 444 GWh. Finally, on Friday, April 24, the Italian market set a new all‑time solar photovoltaic energy production record by producing 163 GWh of solar energy. On that same day, the Portuguese market produced 28 GWh, its highest production with this technology for an April day.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts for the week of April 27, solar energy production will increase in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of April 20, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German and French markets registered the strongest rises, 127% and 115%, respectively, reversing three consecutive weeks of declines. The Portuguese market registered a more moderate increase, 42%. Spain and Italy were the exceptions. In Spain, wind energy production continued its downward movement for a fourth straight week and dropped by 23%. In Italy, production fell by 20% after the rebound seen the previous week.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts for the week of April 27, wind energy production will decline in all analyzed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of April 20, electricity demand declined in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The British market registered the largest drop, 5.9%, followed by the French, German and Italian markets, with declines of 4.4%, 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively. The Iberian markets registered the smallest decreases, 0.7% in Spain and 0.6% in Portugal. Belgium stood out as the exception, where demand edged up by 0.4% after three consecutive weeks of declines.
Average temperatures increased in most of these markets during the week. Portugal and Spain registered the largest rises, 2.1 °C and 1.7 °C, respectively. Great Britain registered the smallest increase, 0.1 °C, while France registered a 1.4 °C rise. In the remaining analyzed markets, average temperatures moved lower, ranging from a decline of 0.8 °C in Belgium to 2.5 °C in Germany.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts for the week of April 27 point to lower demand in the French, Belgian, German, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese markets, mainly because much of continental Europe will observe the May 1 International Workers’ Day holiday. In the British market, demand will increase.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the fourth week of April, prices fell in most major European electricity markets. As a result, weekly average prices decreased compared to the previous week in most cases. However, the British market registered a 4.7% price increase. In the MIBEL market, averages stayed close to the previous week’s levels. The Spanish market registered a slight rise of 0.1%, while the Portuguese market average slipped by 0.2%. By contrast, the French market registered the largest percentage drop in prices, 89%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 11% in the Italian market and 59% in the Nordic market.
In the week of April 20, weekly averages stayed below €70/MWh in most European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets were the exceptions, with averages of €108.54/MWh and €109.12/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the French market registered the lowest weekly average, €7.62/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €39.75/MWh in the Nordic market to €67.36/MWh in the Dutch market.
As for daily prices, the French market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, ‑€40.83/MWh, on Sunday, April 26. This marked its lowest price since June 17, 2013. Meanwhile, on April 26, the Dutch market registered its lowest daily price since October 6, 2025, €12.95/MWh.
On the other hand, the Italian and British markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh in most sessions of the fourth week of April. On Monday, April 20, prices in the Belgian and Dutch markets also rose above €100/MWh. On April 22, the Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €120.07/MWh.
During the week of April 20, lower demand together with higher wind and solar energy production in most markets pushed European electricity market prices downward. However, lower wind and solar energy production in Spain contributed to a slight increase in prices in that market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices could rise in European electricity markets during the last week of April, driven by lower wind energy production. Gas price behavior will also shape price trends in European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market followed an upward path during the fourth week of April. On Monday, April 20, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $95.48/bbl. Continued price increases then pushed the contract to its weekly maximum settlement price, $105.33/bbl, on Friday, April 24. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 17% above the previous Friday and marked the highest level since April 8.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, together with the lack of progress in peace talks between the United States and Iran, drove Brent oil futures prices higher during the fourth week of April.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.29/MWh, on Monday, April 20. Prices then followed an upward path throughout the fourth week of April. As a result, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €44.86/MWh, on Friday, April 24. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 16% above the last session of the previous week.
Rising tensions between the United States and Iran pushed TTF gas futures prices upward during the fourth week of April. The United States maintained its blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the impact of this conflict on global liquefied natural gas supply kept upward pressure on prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €76.15/t, on Monday, April 20. That level already stood 1.7% below the previous Friday and prices continued to move lower until April 22. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €74.42/t. In the last two sessions of the week, settlement prices recovered slightly but remained below €75/t. On Friday, April 24, the settlement price stood at €74.91/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.3% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, May 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 66th edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition will feature Alejandro Diego Rosell, a solar energy expert, energy communicator and consultant, as guest speaker. The May webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and their impact on energy storage. It will also cover the role of batteries, storage and hybridization in the electricity system, revenue streams and opportunities, in addition to success case studies in hybridization.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.