AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 12, 2025. In the second week of May, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, except in Spain and France. Over the weekend several markets registered negative hourly prices, with an all‑time record in Spain, as well as the lowest prices since at least 2023 in other markets. In France and Belgium there were negative daily prices, with values not seen since 2020 in France. Portugal registered an all‑time record for photovoltaic energy production, while France reached the highest wind energy production for a day in May in the last four years. Electricity demand, as well as gas and CO2 prices, rose and Brent futures registered the lowest value since February 2021.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of May 5, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany. Portugal registered the largest increase, 62%, followed by a 26% increase in Spain. In both cases, the increase was favored by the recovery in production after the blackout that affected these markets on Monday, April 28. Germany maintained its upward trend for the second week, this time with an increase of 1.4%. However, in France and Italy, production decreased by 13% in both markets.
On Tuesday, May 6, the Portuguese market registered an all‑time record for solar photovoltaic energy production, 26 GWh. On the other hand, Italy registered its second highest solar energy production for a May month in history, 139 GWh, on May 10.
For the week of May 12, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, Spain and Germany will increase their solar photovoltaic energy production, while in Italy it will continue to decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the second week of May, wind energy production increased in the French and German markets for the second consecutive week, this time by 52% and 17%, respectively. On the other hand, the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and Italy showed decreases in production using this technology. Portugal registered the largest drop, 46%, followed by falls of 12% in Italy and 8.5% in Spain.
On Monday, May 5, France registered the highest daily wind energy production for a May month in the last four years, 216 GWh.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will fall during the week of May 12 in the main European markets analyzed.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of May 5, electricity demand increased in the main European markets. Spain registered the largest increase, 15%, followed by Italy and Portugal, with increases of 12% and 11%, respectively. Great Britain, Belgium, France and Germany also registered increases, between 1.7% and 5.9%. Most markets reversed their upward trend, after several weeks of declines. In the case of Italy, it maintained its upward trend for the second consecutive week.
Average temperatures were lower than the previous week in the analyzed markets. Germany, Belgium, France and Great Britain registered the largest decreases, 4.3 °C, 3.8 °C, 3.6 °C and 3.1 °C, respectively. Spain, Portugal and Italy had the smallest decreases, 1.4 °C, 1.3 °C and 1.0 °C, in each case.
The recovery of labor activity, after the May 1 holiday, International Workers’ Day, together with colder temperatures, favored the increase in demand in the markets during the week. In Spain and Portugal, in addition to the May 1 holiday, the recovery in demand after the blackout that interrupted the electricity supply on Monday, April 28, also played a role.
In the week of May 12, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will decrease in the markets of Germany, Great Britain, Belgium, France and Italy. In contrast, demand will increase in Spain and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the second week of May, average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the MIBEL market of Spain and the EPEX SPOT market of France, which registered falls of 20% and 62%, respectively. In contrast, the MIBEL market of Portugal and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries reached the largest percentage price increases, 106% and 195%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 3.7% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 27% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of May 5, weekly averages exceeded €60/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the French, Spanish and Portuguese markets, whose averages were €9.61/MWh, €12.35/MWh and €34.05/MWh, respectively. The difference in prices between the Spanish and Portuguese markets, two markets that are usually very closely coupled, was once again noteworthy. This divergence is due to the fact that, after the blackout that affected the Iberian Peninsula on April 28, Portugal adopted measures to restrict energy imports from Spain. It first suspended them and, between May 8 and 12, partially resumed them, limiting them to 1000 MW. Meanwhile, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy reached the highest weekly averages, €90.63/MWh and €97.25/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €61.25/MWh in the Belgian market to €76.18/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, May 11, the French and Belgian markets registered negative prices, ‑€5.84/MWh and ‑€9.97/MWh, respectively. In France this price was the lowest since May 25, 2020, while in Belgium it was the lowest price since July 7, 2024. On May 11, averages were also below €10/MWh in the Spanish, Dutch and Portuguese markets. In the case of the Dutch market, its price, €5.46/MWh, was the lowest since July 7, 2024.
As for hourly prices, the German, Belgian, Spanish, French and Dutch markets registered negative hourly prices in the second week of May. On Sunday, May 11, from 16:00 to 17:00, the Spanish market reached its historical minimum hourly price, ‑€15.00/MWh. On that day, from 13:00 to 14:00, in the German, Dutch and Belgian markets, prices were ‑€250.32/MWh, ‑€350.00/MWh and ‑€462.33/MWh, respectively. In the case of the Belgian market, that price was the lowest since June 9, 2019. As for the German and Dutch markets, their prices were the lowest since July 3, 2023.
In the week of May 5, the increase in the weekly price of gas and CO2 emission allowances, as well as the increase in demand in most markets, led to higher weekly prices in most European electricity markets. In contrast, the significant increase in wind energy production in France and the increase in solar energy production in Spain contributed to the decrease in prices in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of May, prices will increase in the Spanish and French markets, while the price will fall in the Portuguese market. In the rest of the main European markets, prices will remain in the same range as those of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $60.23/bbl, on Monday, May 5. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since February 6, 2021. However, in the remaining sessions of the second week of May, prices registered an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, May 9, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $63.91/bbl. This price was 4.3% higher than the previous Friday.
The easing of trade tensions drove Brent oil futures prices higher in the second week of May. Expectations about talks between China and the United States, as well as the trade agreement reached between the United States and the United Kingdom, exerted their upward influence on prices. In addition, US oil reserves declined.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, May 5, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €32.93/MWh. However, in the rest of the week’s sessions, settlement prices remained above €34.50/MWh. On Thursday, May 8, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.34/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 22. After a 2.0% drop from the previous day, on Friday, May 9, the settlement price was €34.62/MWh. This price was still 4.7% higher than the previous Friday.
LNG demand levels in Asia, as well as the need to replenish European reserves for the coming winter, helped to keep TTF gas futures prices above €34.50/MWh during most of the second week of May. The European Union’s intentions to dispense with Russian gas after 2027 also exerted an upward influence on prices.
As for CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, May 5, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €67.47/t. However, on May 6 and 7, these futures registered daily increases of more than 2.5%. As a result, on May 7, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.06/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since March 25. In the last sessions of the week, settlement prices declined slightly, but remained above €70/t. On Friday, May 9, the settlement price was €70.39/t, 2.4% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
On Thursday, May 22, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 55th webinar in its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will analyze batteries, focusing on the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and their financial optimization, as well as regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. The guest speaker will be Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy. In addition, Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former Minister of the Spanish Government and former President of Red Eléctrica, will participate in the analysis table after the webinar in Spanish. The analysis table will also address hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, as well as transmission and distribution grids.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
