AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 23, 2025. In the third week of June, prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week and exceeded €70/MWh. In the British, Iberian and Italian markets, prices exceeded €100/MWh on several days. The rise in gas prices, whose futures marked their highest settlement price since April 3, was one of the causes of the upturn, together with the increase in demand due to the rise in temperatures. Photovoltaic energy registered all‑time production records in Germany and France, and the highest value for a day in June in Portugal. Brent futures reached their highest settlement price since January.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of June 16, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French, German and Spanish markets continued the upward trend of the previous week, with the French market registering the most significant growth, 28%, followed by Germany with 12% and Spain with 11%. The Portuguese market reversed the previous week’s downward trend with an increase of 12%. In contrast, the Italian market registered a 6.5% drop in solar photovoltaic energy production, reversing the upward trend of the previous week.
During the week, the French and German markets reached historic records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On June 16, the French market registered its highest solar photovoltaic energy production ever, 170 GWh. The German market reached its all‑time record on June 20, with 469 GWh of generation. On June 18 and 20, Spain registered its second highest production with this technology in history, 221 GWh. Also on June 20, Portugal set an all‑time high for solar photovoltaic energy production for a June month, 28 GWh.
In the week of June 23, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, the upward trend will reverse and solar energy production will fall in the German and Italian markets, while in Spain it will be similar to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of June 16, wind energy production decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest drop, 50%, continuing the downward trend of the previous week. In the Portuguese market it also declined for the second consecutive week, this time by 27%. The Spanish market reversed the upward trend of the previous week and wind energy production decreased by 23%. In contrast, in the Italian market, after three weeks of declines, wind energy production registered a 17% increase. The French market registered the smallest increase, 5.1%.
In the week of June 23, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, the general downward trend of the previous week will be reversed. Wind energy production will increase in the Iberian Peninsula, Germany and France, but in the Italian market wind energy production will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of June 16, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 7.8%, marking the fifth consecutive week of growth. It was followed by the French and Belgian markets, with increases of 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Despite the celebration of Corpus Christi on June 19, demand increased by 3.1% in the Portuguese market, after two weeks of declines in demand. The Italian market also registered a 3.1% increase in demand compared to the previous week, while the British market registered the smallest increase, 2.2%, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive week. However, demand remained similar to the previous week in Germany.
At the same time, average temperatures increased in all analyzed markets. Increases ranged from 0.3 °C in Italy to 3.0 °C in Great Britain. The Iberian Peninsula also registered significant week‑on‑week increases in average temperatures, with increases of 2.4 °C and 2.3 °C in Spain and Portugal, respectively.
For the week of June 23, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the upward trend will continue in France and Italy. Demand will also increase in the German market. In contrast, demand will decrease in the Spanish, Belgian, British and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of June, average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a 37% drop. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France reached the largest percentage price increase, 83%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 4.7% in the IPEX market of Italy and 40% in the MIBEL market of Spain.
In the week of June 16, weekly averages were above €70/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, whose averages were €18.53/MWh and €51.58/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €118.86/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €71.82/MWh in the German market to €94.64/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Regarding daily prices, on June 19, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €7.00/MWh. Prices in this market remained below €25.00/MWh during the third week of June. On the other hand, the British, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets reached daily prices above €100/MWh on several occasions during the week. On June 19, these markets registered the highest prices. The Italian market reached the highest value, €124.67/MWh. However, on Monday, June 23, the price was even higher in this market, €136.57/MWh. That was its highest price since February 27.
As for hourly prices, despite the rise in weekly averages, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices in the third week of June. The exception was the Italian market. On Sunday, June 22, from 13:00 to 14:00, the German market reached the lowest hourly price of the week, ‑€99.01/MWh.
In the week of June 16, rising gas prices and electricity demand drove up prices in the European electricity markets. In addition, in Germany, Spain and Portugal, wind energy production fell, while in Italy, solar energy production decreased.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of June, prices will fall in most major European electricity markets, influenced by increased wind energy production in most markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $73.23/bbl, on Monday, June 16. Subsequently, prices increased and, in the remaining sessions of the third week of June, settlement prices remained above $75/bbl. On Thursday, June 19, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $78.85/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since January 23. However, on Friday, June 20, these futures registered a 2.3% drop from the previous day. The settlement price was $77.01/bbl, still 3.7% higher than the previous Friday.
Tension between Israel and Iran exerted its upward influence on Brent oil futures prices during the third week of June. The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend contributed to increased fears of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This closure has already been requested in the Iranian Parliament, although it has yet to be ratified.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, June 16, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €37.91/MWh. Prices registered an upward trend for most of the third week of June. As a result, on Thursday, June 19, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €41.63/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 3. On Friday, June 20, the settlement price was slightly lower, €40.93/MWh. This price was 8.0% higher than the previous Friday.
In the third week of June, fears of liquefied natural gas supply disruptions due to tensions in the Middle East continued to exert their upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. On the other hand, increased demand in Europe due to high temperatures also contributed to the increase in prices of these futures.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €75.34/t, on Monday, June 16. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was already 0.8% lower than the previous Friday. The downward trend continued during the third week of June. As a result, on Thursday, June 19, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €72.75/t.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, PPA and energy storage
On Thursday, July 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 57th webinar in its monthly webinar series. This webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the current situation and prospects of PPA, focusing on the vision of large consumers. In addition, it will address the prospects for energy storage and the IDAE’s call for aid for energy storage.
Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell, will participate in the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish. Pedro González will offer the perspective of large electro‑intensive consumers, while Roger Font will analyze the challenges and opportunities of storage and renewable energy project financing in the current market context.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
