AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, January 2, 2025. In 2024, the main European electricity markets reached the lowest yearly prices since 2021, in most cases below €80/MWh. Gas prices were also the lowest since 2021, which contributed to the declines in electricity market prices, along with lower CO2 prices. Solar photovoltaic energy reached historical production records in all markets and wind energy in Portugal. At the same time, electricity demand recovered in most markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
Europe’s commitment to energy transition and renewable energy is reflected in the 2024 data. Installed solar photovoltaic capacity increased in all major European electricity markets compared to 2023. In most cases, the increase was in double digits. The Portuguese market registered the largest percentage increase, 47%, adding 1237 MW to the system in 2024. Only in Italy and the Netherlands, installed solar capacity grow by less than 10%. Germany was the market that installed the most solar photovoltaic capacity in 2024, adding 13 535 MW to the system, followed by Mainland Spain, which, according to data from Red Eléctrica, added 4989 MW in 2024, an increase of 19%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from Red Eléctrica, REN and ENTSO-E.Increases in installed solar photovoltaic capacity led to higher yearly production in all major European electricity markets. In Portugal, solar energy production grew by 35% year‑on‑year and in Spain by 18%, while France registered the smallest increase, 6.6%.
Solar photovoltaic energy production in 2024 was the highest ever in all markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Germany was the leader with 63 925 GWh generated using this technology in 2024. Spain followed with a yearly production of 43 560 GWh.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Installed wind energy capacity increased in most major European electricity markets in 2024. As in 2023, the Dutch market had the highest growth, this time by 15%. According to data from Red Eléctrica, installed capacity in Mainland Spain increased by 2.7%, with 827 MW added to the grid. The Portuguese market registered the lowest growth, 0.6%, with 34 MW added to the grid.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from Red Eléctrica, REN and ENTSO-E.In 2024, wind energy production only increased year‑on‑year in the Portuguese market, by 7.2%. The rest of the main European electricity markets registered a fall in production using this technology. Italy registered the largest drop, 5.7%, while the Spanish market reached the smallest decline, 3.4%.
In Portugal, wind energy production in 2024 was the highest ever with a generation of 14 093 GWh.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
Electricity demand in 2024 was higher than in 2023 in almost all major European electricity markets, reversing the downward trend registered between 2022 and 2023. The Belgian market registered the largest increase, 2.5%, followed by Portugal and Great Britain, with an increase in demand of 0.9% in both cases. The Spanish market had the smallest increase in demand, 0.6%, while Italy and France recorded increases of 0.7%. The exceptions to the upward trend were the markets of the Netherlands and Germany, where demand decreased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, compared to 2023.
In 2024, yearly average temperatures increased by 0.4 °C in Germany, 0.2 °C in Italy and 0.1 °C in the Netherlands compared to 2023. In contrast, average temperatures for 2024 in Spain, Portugal, France and Great Britain were between 0.2 °C and 0.6 °C lower than the previous year. In Belgium, yearly average temperatures in 2024 were similar to those in 2023.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In 2024, the yearly average price was below €80/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, with an average of €85.89/MWh, and the IPEX market of Italy, with €108.52/MWh. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries had the lowest yearly average price, €36.06/MWh. In the other European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €57.72/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of France to €79.63/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
When comparing 2024 prices with 2023 prices, prices fell in all analysed markets. The French market registered the largest price drop, 40%, while the Italian market registered the smallest decrease, 15%. In the remaining markets, price decreases ranged from 16% in the German market to 36% in the Nordic market.
As a result of these declines, yearly prices in 2024 were the lowest since 2021 in all markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
In 2024, the fall in the average price of gas and CO2 emission allowances compared to the previous year led to lower prices in European electricity markets. Increased solar energy production also contributed to this decline. In addition, wind energy production increased in the MIBEL market of Portugal, while electricity demand fell slightly in Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
During 2024, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market averaged $79.86/bbl. This price was 2.8% lower than the average Front‑Month futures price reached in the previous year, $82.18/bbl.
Instability in the Middle East exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices during 2024. Wildfires in Canada, supply disruptions in Libya, as well as the effects of several hurricanes on production in the Gulf of Mexico, also contributed to global oil supply fears. However, despite the plans to stimulate the Chinese economy, concerns about the evolution of global oil demand led to a decline in the yearly average price of these futures in 2024.
As for TTF gas futures prices in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they also fell in 2024 compared to 2023. These futures reached an average price of €34.65/MWh in 2024. This average was 16% lower than that of the Front‑Month futures traded in 2023, €41.40/MWh. Moreover, the 2024 average was the lowest since 2021.
In 2024, tension in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exerted an upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. During the year, problems at liquefied natural gas export plants, disruptions in the gas flow from Norway and high Asian demand also exerted upward pressure. However, for most of the year, settlement prices remained below €40/MWh thanks to high levels of European reserves and abundant liquefied natural gas supplies. In the last weeks of the year, the decline in European reserves to lower levels than in the previous year due to lower temperatures, as well as uncertainty due to the termination of the contract allowing Russian gas supply via Ukraine, led TTF gas futures to register the highest prices of 2024.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December, in 2024 prices also decreased compared to the previous year. These futures reached a yearly average price of €66.57/t. This average was 22% lower than the 2023 average, which was €85.30/t.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides solutions for energy storage, such as batteries, pumping stations and green hydrogen, both for stand‑alone projects and for hybrid systems that combine renewable technologies, such as wind or solar energy, with energy storage systems. AleaStorage services include revenue calculation, optimisation, management and sizing of energy storage. AleaStorage reports are based on hourly price simulations and optimisation algorithms, taking into account the technical characteristics of the system and the opportunities for selling energy in the markets.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
