AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, January 19, 2026. In the third week of January, prices in the main European electricity markets registered an upward trend and most of them exceeded €100/MWh as a weekly average, although in many cases they were lower than those of the previous week. On January 17, the Iberian market registered its highest daily price since February 2025. During the week, TTF gas futures reached their highest settlement price since June, CO₂ futures reached their highest settlement price since at least late 2023 and Brent futures reached their highest settlement price since early October. Electricity demand increased in most markets, while renewable energy production declined.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the third week of January, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German and Italian markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 77%, after two weeks of declines, while the Italian market registered a rise of 7.1%. In contrast, the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and the French market registered declines in production from this technology. Spain and Portugal registered drops of 13% and 23%, respectively, while France accumulated its second consecutive week of declines, with a decrease of 14%.
For the week of January 19, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production will increase in the German and Spanish markets compared to the previous week. By contrast, solar energy production will decline in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the week of January 12, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest drop, 56%, after four consecutive weeks of growth. Next, the Spanish market registered a 52% decline in production from this technology. The French and Portuguese markets registered drops of 11% and 20%, respectively. The German market registered the smallest decrease, 2.5%, and continued the downward trend for the second consecutive week.
For the penultimate week of January, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production from this technology will increase in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. However, it will decline in the French and German markets, continuing the downward trend of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of January 12, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 6.8%, followed by a 5.0% rise in the Spanish market. The Portuguese market showed the smallest increase, 1.7%, while the German market rose by 2.0%. The Italian and German markets registered their third consecutive week of growth, while the markets on the Iberian Peninsula accumulated increases for the second week in a row.
The return to normal working activity after the January 6 holiday, Epiphany, which Spain, Italy and some regions of Germany celebrate, drove demand increases in these markets.
On the other hand, the Belgian, British and French markets registered demand declines compared to the previous week. The Belgian market showed the smallest drop, 6.7%, while the French market registered the largest decline, 18%. In Great Britain, demand fell by 7.0%.
During the week, average temperatures were less cold than the previous week in the analyzed markets. Increases ranged from 1.1 °C in Portugal to 9.0 °C in Belgium.
For the week of January 19, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the markets of Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium and Spain. In contrast, the Portuguese and Italian markets will register a decline in demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Prices showed an upward trend in most major European electricity markets during the third week of January, but they remained below the levels reached in the first days of the previous week in most cases. As a result, in the third week of the year, weekly average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the EPEX SPOT market of France, the IPEX market of Italy and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with increases of 2.1%, 14%, 40% and 41%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price drop, 11%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 1.5% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 4.6% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
In the week of January 12, weekly averages exceeded €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with an average of €91.43/MWh. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €136.13/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €103.23/MWh in the French market to €110.43/MWh in the Portuguese market.
As for daily prices, on Friday, January 16, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €80.16/MWh. During the third week of January, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Spanish, French, Dutch and Portuguese markets also registered at least one daily price below €90/MWh.
On the other hand, all markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered daily prices above €100/MWh in at least one session during the third week of January. In the German market, daily prices exceeded €100/MWh throughout the entire week, while in the Italian market they surpassed €125/MWh. The Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €144.98/MWh, on Thursday, January 15. In the case of the Iberian market, on January 17, the price was €127.24/MWh, its highest daily price since February 18, 2025.
In the week of January 12, the significant increase in solar energy production in Germany and the drop in demand in the Belgian, British and Dutch markets contributed to price declines in those markets. However, rising gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices, along with lower wind energy production, drove price increases in the Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese markets. Higher demand in Spain, Italy and Portugal, as well as lower solar energy production in the Spanish, French and Portuguese markets, also pushed prices upward.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of January, prices will rise in most major European electricity markets, influenced by higher demand, lower wind energy production in Germany and France, and lower solar energy production in Italy. However, higher solar energy production in Spain and increased wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula will favor price declines in the MIBEL market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market continued the upward trend that began at the end of the previous week until January 14. On that day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $66.52/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since October 1, 2025. However, after a 4.1% drop compared to the previous day, on Thursday, January 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $63.76/bbl. On Friday, January 16, the settlement price was slightly higher, $64.13/bbl. This price was 1.2% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Concerns about the effects of instability in Iran on oil supply drove the increase in Brent oil futures prices in the third week of January. However, statements by the US president eased fears of possible military actions and lower tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price drop registered on Thursday, January 15.
As for TTF gas futures prices in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they increased during the third week of January. On Monday the 12th, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €30.25/MWh, while on Friday the 16th they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €36.88/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 30% higher than that of the previous Friday and the highest since June 24, 2025.
Forecasts of lower temperatures toward the end of January and low levels of European reserves, currently around 50%, drove the increase in TTF gas futures prices in the third week of January. Disruptions to US liquefied natural gas exports, concerns about the effects of instability in Iran on supply, as well as expectations of higher Asian demand associated with a cold snap, also exerted upward pressure on prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, on Monday, January 12, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €90.11/t. This price was already 0.6% higher than that of the last session of the previous week and the upward trend continued until Thursday, January 15. On that day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €92.24/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest at least since December 29, 2023. On Friday, January 16, the settlement price was slightly lower, €92.04/t, but it was still 2.8% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for European energy markets, storage and demand
On Thursday, January 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 62nd edition of its monthly webinar series. Guest speakers from PwC Spain participated for the sixth consecutive year. The webinar focused on the prospects for European energy markets, energy storage and hybridization, electricity demand growth driven by Data Centers and industry electrification, the current state of regulation on PPA and renewable energy, and the evolution of virtual PPA and FPA (Flexibility Purchase Agreements).
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.