AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 8, 2026. In the first half of 2026, prices rose in most major European electricity markets, driven by higher gas prices and increased demand. By contrast, greater solar photovoltaic and wind energy production helped bring prices down in Spain and Portugal. Solar photovoltaic energy production reached half‑year records in Germany, Spain, France and Italy, while wind energy production set records in France, Italy and Portugal. Brent oil and TTF gas reached their highest average prices since 2023, due to tensions between the United States and Iran and low gas storage levels.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the first half of 2026, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared with the same period of the previous year. The Spanish and French markets registered the largest increases, both at 16%. Portugal and Italy achieved increases of 8.3% and 7.8%, respectively, while the German market registered the smallest rise, 5.7%.
Compared with the second half of 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets. The German market registered the largest rise, 34%. It was followed by the French and Italian markets, with increases of 17% and 10%, respectively. The Spanish market registered a more moderate increase of 5.2%. By contrast, production in Portugal decreased by 3.9%.
In addition, all the markets analysed, except Portugal, achieved an all‑time record for half‑year solar photovoltaic energy production in the first half of 2026. Over the six‑month period, Germany generated 43 623 GWh using this technology, Spain reached 26 959 GWh, Italy produced 18 351 GWh and France generated 17 457 GWh.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, during the first six months of 2026, Mainland Spain added 3763 MW of new solar photovoltaic capacity compared with the capacity installed at the end of 2025, excluding self‑consumption installations. This represents an increase of 9.2%. In Portugal, according to data from REN, solar photovoltaic capacity increased by 198 MW over the same period, or 4.1%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the first half of 2026, wind energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared with the same period of 2025. The Italian market registered the largest rise, 17%. It was followed by the French and German markets, with increases of 13% and 11%, respectively. The Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the smallest increases, 8.2% and 5.8%, respectively.
Compared with the second half of 2025, wind energy production increased in most of the markets analysed. The Italian market registered the largest rise, 30%. Portugal ranked second, with an increase of 13%. The Spanish and French markets registered increases of 6.1% and 3.3%, respectively. By contrast, production from this technology in the German market decreased by 5.0%.
In addition, France, Italy and Portugal achieved all‑time records for half‑year wind energy production in the first half of 2026. Over the six‑month period, France generated 26 050 GWh using this technology, Italy reached 12 976 GWh and Portugal produced 7350 GWh.
Regarding installed capacity, data from Red Eléctrica indicate that, in June 2026, wind capacity in Mainland Spain was 231 MW higher than at the end of 2025, excluding self‑consumption installations. This represents an increase of 0.7%. In Portugal, REN data show an increase of 84 MW over the same period, equivalent to a rise of 1.5%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first half of 2026, electricity demand increased year‑on‑year in most major European electricity markets. The Belgian market registered the largest rise, 6.1%, followed by Portugal, with an increase of 4.0%. The Spanish, German and Italian markets registered increases ranging from 1.4% in Spain to 2.7% in Italy. The British market registered the smallest rise, 0.4%. By contrast, demand in the French market decreased by 0.5%.
Most markets also registered increases in demand compared with the previous six‑month period. The Belgian market led this trend, with a rise of 8.7%. It was followed by the French market, at 7.4%. The German, British and Portuguese markets registered increases of 2.0%, 3.3% and 3.4%, respectively. Italy registered the smallest growth, 0.9%. By contrast, demand in the Spanish market fell by 0.9%.
At the same time, average temperatures increased year‑on‑year in all major European markets, with rises ranging from 0.1 °C in Germany to 0.7 °C in Belgium and France.
Compared with the second half of 2025, average temperatures decreased in all the markets analysed. The falls ranged from 2.3 °C in France to 3.8 °C in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first half of 2026, the average price exceeded €60/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the highest half‑year prices, €107.27/MWh and €127.18/MWh, respectively. The Portuguese and Spanish MIBEL markets registered the lowest prices, €48.77/MWh and €49.83/MWh, respectively. In the other markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, average prices ranged from €61.78/MWh in the French market to €98.62/MWh in the German market, while the Nordic market averaged €79.05/MWh.
Compared with the previous six-month period, average prices increased in most European electricity markets during the first half of 2026. The Nordic market registered the largest rise, at 82%, followed by the British market, at 27%. The Belgian, Dutch, Italian, German and French markets registered increases of between 11% and 23%. By contrast, prices fell in the Spanish and Portuguese markets, by 28% and 29%, respectively.
Comparing average prices in the first half of 2026 with those registered during the same period of 2025, prices increased in most of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Nordic market registered the largest year‑on‑year rise, 120%. The Dutch, German, Belgian and Italian markets registered increases of between 6.4% and 9.4%, while the price in the British market rose by 2.4%. By contrast, prices fell in the French, Spanish and Portuguese markets, by 7.4%, 19% and 23%, respectively.
As a result of these increases, in the first half of 2026 the Nordic market reached its highest average price since the first half of 2023, while the German, Belgian, British, Italian and Dutch markets registered their highest averages since the second half of 2023. By contrast, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their lowest averages since the second half of 2024.
In the first half of 2026, the increase in TTF gas prices, together with higher electricity demand, drove prices up in most European electricity markets compared with the previous six‑month period. By contrast, increased solar photovoltaic and wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula contributed to falling prices in the Spanish and Portuguese markets.
Compared with the first half of 2025, the rise in the average gas price led to year‑on‑year price increases in most European electricity markets. Conversely, increased solar photovoltaic and wind energy production helped bring prices down in the French, Portuguese and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, Nord Pool and GME.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered an average half‑year price of $87.60/bbl in the first half of 2026. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since the first half of 2023. It was also 33% higher than the average Front‑Month futures price in the previous six‑month period, which stood at $65.64/bbl. It was 24% higher than the corresponding Front‑Month futures price in the first half of 2025, which averaged $70.81/bbl.
The conflict between the United States and Iran, and its consequences for supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to the upward trend in Brent futures prices during the first half of 2026.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average price registered during the first half of 2026 was €42.94/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since the second half of 2023. Compared with the average Front‑Month futures price of €31.59/MWh in the previous six‑month period, the average increased by 36%. Compared with Front‑Month futures traded during the same period of 2025, when the average price was €41.21/MWh, the increase was 4.2%.
Low European gas storage levels, together with geopolitical tensions, contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices during the first half of 2026.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached an average price of €77.13/t in the first half of 2026. This was 2.4% lower than the average registered in the previous six‑month period, €79.02/t. Compared with the average of €74.62/t during the same period of 2025, the average price in the first half of 2026 was 3.4% higher.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis using artificial intelligence for energy markets
Since 1999, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has developed forecasting models for European energy markets by combining artificial intelligence, statistics, econometrics and in‑depth knowledge of the energy sector. For 27 years, AI has formed a core part of its methodology, enabling the company to produce robust forecasts of electricity market prices, electricity demand, renewable energy production and other key variables used in decision‑making.
The energy transition is increasing market volatility, renewable energy penetration, the occurrence of zero and negative prices, the need for flexibility and the importance of energy storage. Against this backdrop, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting continues to promote the development of artificial intelligence‑based tools to analyse markets, assess risks, optimise energy purchasing and selling strategies, structure PPA, value investments, size batteries, estimate revenue from energy storage systems and analyse hybrid renewable energy and battery projects.
These solutions combine forecasting, artificial intelligence and accumulated experience in energy markets to help energy‑sector companies, investors, generators, retailers, large consumers and operators make better‑informed decisions with greater rigour and a strategic view of market developments.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
