AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, February 4, 2025. In January 2025, prices in most major European electricity markets rose, with some reaching their highest monthly average since March 2023. This increase follows the trend of gas prices, whose futures marked their highest monthly value since then, and CO₂ prices, with their highest level since December 2023. The increase in electricity demand also drove this upward trend. Photovoltaic energy registered its highest production for any January in all major European markets, a record also reached by wind energy in Spain, France and Portugal.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In January 2025, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the same month of the previous year. Portugal led the percentage growth, with 38%, while Italy registered the smallest increase, 5.8%. Solar photovoltaic energy production grew by 12% in Germany, 15% in France and 19% in Spain.
Comparing photovoltaic energy production in January 2025 with that of December 2024, increases were observed in France and Germany, by 14% and 53% respectively. In contrast, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula registered decreases, ranging from 3.4% in Italy to 12% in Portugal.
All major European markets reached historical photovoltaic energy production records for a month of January. Spain led the ranking with 2233 GWh, followed by Germany with 1684 GWh, Italy with 1120 GWh and France with 1047 GWh. Portugal closed the list with 277 GWh of solar photovoltaic energy generation.
These increases reflect the year‑on‑year growth in installed photovoltaic energy capacity. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between January 2024 and January 2025, Spain added 5371 MW to the peninsular system, while Portugal expanded its solar capacity by 1154 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In January 2025, wind energy production increased in the French and Iberian markets compared to January of the previous year. Increases were 9.5% in France, 31% in Spain and 48% in Portugal. On the other hand, the Italian and German markets registered decreases of 8.8% and 16%, respectively.
The comparison with December 2024 showed similar behaviour, with increases in France and the Iberian Peninsula, and decreases in Italy and Germany. Increases ranged from 8.1% in France to 43% in Portugal, while decreases were 3.0% in Italy and 4.4% in Germany.
The Spanish, French and Portuguese markets registered record levels of wind energy production in January. Spain generated 7401 GWh using this technology and France 5725 GWh. In Portugal, production reached 1801 GWh, marking its highest value for a January and the third highest in its history.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between January 2024 and January 2025, Spain increased its wind energy capacity in the peninsular system by 1154 MW, while Portugal added 34 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In January 2025, electricity demand increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2024. The British market registered the largest increase, 4.7%, followed by increases of 3.9% in the Dutch market and 3.0% in the French market. On the Iberian Peninsula, demand grew by 2.0% in Portugal and 2.2% in Spain. On the other hand, Germany and Belgium had the smallest increases, 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.
Compared to December 2024, demand also increased across the main European markets. The British market registered the largest increase again, which was 12%, while the Dutch market had the smallest increase, 4.3%. In the rest of the markets, increases ranged from 5.0% in Italy to 8.3% in France.
In most analysed markets, January 2025 was colder than the same month in 2024. Average temperature decreases ranged from 0.2 °C in the Netherlands to 0.9 °C in Great Britain. In contrast, in Italy and Germany, average temperatures increased year‑on‑year by 0.3 °C and 0.4 °C, respectively, while in France they remained similar.
Compared to December 2024, average temperatures were lower in most analysed markets, with decreases ranging from 0.7 °C in Germany to 3.0 °C in Great Britain. In contrast, the Iberian Peninsula and Italy registered higher temperatures than the previous month, with increases of 0.1 °C in Spain, 0.3 °C in Portugal and 0.6 °C in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
For January 2025, the monthly average price was above €95/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with an average of €43.81/MWh. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy registered the highest monthly prices, €140.67/MWh and €143.03/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €96.69/MWh in the MIBEL market of Spain to €116.65/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
Compared to December 2024, average prices rose in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The MIBEL market was the exception, with a drop of 13%. On the other hand, the British and Nordic markets registered the largest percentage price increases, 28% and 37%, respectively. In the rest of the markets, prices increased between 4.2% in the French market and 8.0% in the Dutch market.
Comparing average prices in January with those registered in the same month in 2024, prices also rose in most analysed markets. In this case, the exception was the Nordic market, where prices fell by 35%. On the other hand, the British market registered the largest increase, 68%. In the other markets, price increases ranged from 30% in the Spanish market to 49% in the Dutch market.
As a result of these price increases, in January 2025, the German, Belgian, British, Italian and Dutch markets registered their highest averages since March 2023. The French market reached the highest average since May 2023, while the Nordic market registered the highest average since May 2024.
In January 2025, higher gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices, together with an increase in demand, pushed up prices in European electricity markets. In addition, lower wind energy production in Germany and Italy compared to December 2024 contributed to intensifying this upward trend. In contrast, in Spain and Portugal, increased wind energy generation led to lower prices in the Iberian market compared to the previous month.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $78.35/bbl in the month of January 2025. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the highest monthly average since September 2024. Moreover, this average was 7.1% higher than the December 2024 Front‑Month futures price, $73.13/bbl. However, it was 1.0% lower than the corresponding January 2024 Front‑Month futures value, $79.15/bbl.
In early January 2025, the possibility of new sanctions on Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil favoured a price increase in Brent oil futures. Prospects of increased demand due to low temperatures and expectations about the stimulus to the Chinese economy also contributed to the increases. However, the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the prospect of increased US production, as well as concerns about the effects of US tariffs on the world economy and global oil demand pushed prices lower in the second half of January.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average settlement price for the month of January 2025 was €48.32/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the highest monthly average since March 2023. Compared to the average of Front‑Month futures traded in the month of December 2024, €45.15/MWh, the January average increased by 7.0%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in January 2024, when the average price was €29.91/MWh, there was an increase of 62%.
In January, low temperatures, declining European reserves and the end of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine pushed up TTF gas futures prices. At the end of the month, the decline in gas flows from Norway also exerted an upward influence on prices.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached an average price of €78.19/t in January. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this monthly price is the highest since December 2023. Moreover, this represents an increase of 13% compared to the average for the month of December 2024, which was €69.03/t. Compared to the January 2024 average, €69.72/t, the January 2025 average was 12% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides advanced solutions for the optimisation and management of energy storage systems, such as batteries, pumping stations and green hydrogen. These include forecasts and reports for both stand‑alone projects and hybrid systems that combine renewable energy, such as wind and solar energy, with energy storage systems. AleaStorage services include revenue and profitability calculations for systems with energy storage, as well as optimal battery sizing for hybrid systems.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
