AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 26, 2025. During the fourth week of May, prices fell in most major European electricity markets, while in others they remained stable, with slight increases. Increased wind energy production and all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy generation in France and Portugal, together with the maximum for a day in May in Italy, helped to contain prices. In addition, electricity demand fell in most markets. In contrast, gas prices rose compared to the previous week.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 19, solar photovoltaic energy production increased for the third consecutive week in the Iberian markets. Spain registered the largest rise, 10%, while Portugal registered an 8.9% increase. On the other hand, the markets of Germany, Italy and France reversed the trend and registered declines after the previous week’s growth. Germany registered the largest drop, 17%, while France registered the smallest decrease, 3.2%. Italy registered a decrease of 11%.
During the week, the markets of Italy, France and Portugal registered solar photovoltaic energy production records. On Monday, May 19, Italy reached its highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in May, with 149 GWh, which is also the second highest value in its history. On May 23, France broke its all‑time solar photovoltaic energy production record, with 142 GWh. Portugal set a new historical solar energy production maximum on May 24, with 26 GWh.
For the week of May 26, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, generation with this technology will decrease in Italy, Germany and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the fourth week of May, wind energy production increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest rise, 67%, while Portugal had the smallest increase, 1.0%. Both markets continued the upward trend for the second consecutive week. Germany registered increases for the fourth week in a row, this time with a 27% rise, while Spain and France showed increases of 51% and 35%, respectively.
For the last week of May, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production with this technology will increase in Germany and France. On the other hand, the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and Italy will register decreases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of May 19, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Belgium registered the largest drop, 1.9%, while Italy and France registered the smallest decreases, both of 0.2%. In Portugal, demand decreased by 0.6%. On the other hand, Germany, Great Britain and Spain registered an upward change in trend, following the previous week’s declines. On this occasion, the German market led the increases, with 0.9%, followed by the British market, with 0.5%, and the Spanish market, with 0.2%.
Average temperatures increased in most analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Portugal and Spain had the highest increases, 1.7 °C and 1.5 °C, respectively. Germany registered the smallest rise, 0.2 °C, while Italy registered a 1.0 °C increase. In contrast, France, Great Britain and Belgium registered temperature drops ranging from 0.2 °C in France to 1.4 °C in Belgium.
In the last week of May, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in Spain, Portugal and Italy, while it will decrease in Great Britain, Germany, France and Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of May, average prices declined in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage price declines, 46% and 48%, respectively. However, in some markets, weekly average prices were similar to those of the previous week, with slight percentage increases. The IPEX market of Italy registered a 0.8% increase, while the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium registered increases of 0.7%, 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 8.4% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 17% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of May 19, weekly average prices were below €70/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, whose averages were €84.50/MWh and €96.54/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the lowest weekly averages, €9.80/MWh and €13.21/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €18.32/MWh in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries to €69.09/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, May 25, most markets registered prices below €20/MWh. That day, the British market registered the lowest average price among the analyzed markets, €1.55/MWh. This was its lowest daily price since May 24, 2020. In addition, the daily price in the Italian market was the lowest since May 17, 2021, despite reaching a value considerably higher than the rest of the markets, €47.74/MWh.
As for hourly prices, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices during the fourth week of May. The exceptions were the Italian, Nordic and Portuguese markets. On Sunday, May 25, from 13:00 to 14:00, the British market registered the lowest hourly price of the week, ‑€35.18/MWh. This was its lowest price since July 17, 2023.
In the week of May 19, increased wind energy production led to lower prices in most European electricity markets. The increase in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula also contributed to lower prices in the MIBEL market. However, the increase in the weekly gas price contributed to slight price increases in markets such as Germany, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the last week of May, prices will fall in most European electricity markets. However, prices will increase in the Iberian and Italian markets, influenced by declining wind and solar energy production in these markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $65.54/bbl, on Monday, May 19. Subsequently, prices declined. As a result, on Thursday, May 22, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.44/bbl. On Friday, May 23, there was a 0.5% recovery from the previous day and the settlement price was $64.78/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 1.0% lower than the previous Friday.
The possibility of further production increases by OPEC+ led to lower Brent oil futures prices. Concerns about demand evolution due to US tariff policies also continued to exert downward pressure in the fourth week of May.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, May 19, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €35.22/MWh. After a 5.0% increase from the previous day, on Tuesday, May 20, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €36.98/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 8. Although settlement prices were slightly lower, they remained above €36/MWh in the remaining sessions of the fourth week of March. On Friday, May 23, the settlement price was €36.45/MWh, 3.7% higher than the previous Friday.
Maintenance shutdowns at several Norwegian gas fields, as well as an unplanned partial outage at the Troll field, reduced gas supply from Norway, exerting upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices during the fourth week of May.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they remained above €70/t during the fourth week of May. On Monday, May 19, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.42/t. In contrast, on Tuesday, May 20, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.18/t. Subsequently, prices began a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, May 23, the settlement price was €71.56/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.8% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
On Thursday, May 22, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 55th webinar in its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar analyzed batteries, focusing on the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and their financial optimization, as well as regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. The guest speaker was Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy. In addition, Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former Minister of the Spanish Government and former President of Red Eléctrica, participated in the analysis table after the webinar in Spanish. The analysis table also addressed hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, as well as transmission and distribution grids.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
