AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, December 15, 2025. In the second week of December, prices in most major European electricity markets fell again compared to the previous week, driven by falling demand and lower gas prices, with the exception of the Iberian market, where prices rose. Despite the weekly declines, several markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh in some sessions. In this context, TTF gas futures registered their lowest settlement price since April 2024, while CO2 futures reached their highest level since early February.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of December 8, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in some of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 41%, reversing the downward trend of the previous week. The French market followed it, with a 22% increase after two weeks of declines. The German market registered the smallest increase, 0.7%, and continued its upward trend for the second consecutive week. In contrast, in the Portuguese and Spanish markets, generation from this technology fell by 16% and 3.6%, respectively, continuing the downward trend for the third consecutive week.
In addition, on December 8, the Italian market registered an all‑time record for photovoltaic energy production for a December day, with 58 GWh.
During the week of December 15, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, photovoltaic energy production will increase in the German market, while it will decline in the Italian and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of December 8, wind energy production declined in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered its second consecutive week of declines, registering the largest drop, 72%. The Spanish, French and Portuguese markets followed it. After two weeks of increases, these markets registered declines of 51%, 41% and 25%, respectively. The German market was the exception. After two weeks of downward trend, wind energy production increased by 29% in this market.
In the week of December 15, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will increase in the Spanish, French and Italian markets. In contrast, wind energy production will decrease in the German and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of December 8, electricity demand decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend observed the week before in most markets. The French market registered the sharpest drop, 8.8%, and continued its downward trend for the third consecutive week. The Italian and British markets followed it, with declines of 7.8% and 7.2%, respectively. In the other markets, the decreases were smaller. After five weeks of increases, the Portuguese, German and Spanish markets fell by 3.6%, 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The Belgian market registered the smallest decline, 2.7%. It is worth mentioning that on December 8, Spain, Portugal and Italy celebrated the Day of the Immaculate Conception.
During the week, average temperatures were milder than the previous week in most analyzed markets. Germany registered the largest increase, 4.0 °C, while Portugal showed the smallest, 0.3 °C. Great Britain and Italy were the exception, as average temperatures fell by 0.2 °C in both cases compared to the previous week.
For the week of December 15, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the main European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the second week of December, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exception was the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with a 27% increase. The EPEX SPOT market of France registered the smallest decline, 2.7%, while the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price drop, 21%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 8.9% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 19% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of December 8, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Dutch, German and Italian markets, whose averages were €85.20/MWh, €90.11/MWh and €112.49/MWh, respectively. By contrast, the Nordic market and the French market registered the lowest weekly averages, €58.18/MWh and €62.91/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €76.88/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and €83.24/MWh in the Belgian market.
Regarding daily prices, on Tuesday, December 9, the French market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €28.79/MWh. This was the only analyzed market that registered a daily price below €30/MWh during the second week of December.
On the other hand, most of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting registered prices above €100/MWh in at least one session during the second week of December, except for the British, French and Nordic markets. In the case of the IPEX market of Italy, daily prices exceeded €105/MWh throughout the entire second week of December. This market reached the highest daily average of the week, €119.09/MWh, on December 10.
In the week of December 8, the decline in the weekly gas price and the drop in demand in most markets led to lower prices in European electricity markets. In addition, solar energy production increased in Germany, France and Italy. In the case of the German market, wind energy production also rose. By contrast, in the Iberian Peninsula, both wind and solar energy production declined, contributing to higher prices in Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of December, prices will rise in the main European electricity markets, influenced by increased demand. In addition, wind energy production will decline in the German and Portuguese markets, while solar energy production will decrease in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $62.49/bbl, on Monday, December 8. This price was already 2.0% lower than that of the last session of the previous week. Price declines continued in most sessions of the second week of December. As a result, on Friday, December 12, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $61.12/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.1% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since October 21.
Despite tensions between the United States and Venezuela, increased Iraqi oil production, peace negotiations for Ukraine, as well as concerns about a potential oversupply in 2026, which according to forecasts by the International Energy Agency will reach record levels, contributed to the price decline during the second week of December.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they remained below €27.50/MWh in most sessions of the second week of December. On December 10, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €26.60/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since April 5, 2024. However, prices increased on Thursday and Friday. As a result, on Friday, December 12, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €27.68/MWh, which was 1.5% higher than the previous Friday.
During the second week of December, peace talks for Ukraine and abundant liquefied natural gas supply continued to exert downward pressure on TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they remained above €84/t throughout the second week of December. On Monday, December 8, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €84.23/t. In contrast, on Thursday, December 11, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €86.20/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since February 1. On Friday, December 12, the settlement price was slightly lower, €86.06/t, but it was still 2.2% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for European energy markets, storage and demand
On Thursday, January 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 62nd edition of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the webinar will analyze the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects from 2026 onward, as well as the prospects for energy storage and hybridization. It will also address the growth in electricity demand driven by Data Centers and industry electrification. In addition, the webinar will review the current state of regulation on PPA and renewable energy, as well as the evolution of virtual PPA and FPA (Flexibility Purchase Agreements). This January 2026 webinar will feature speakers from PwC Spain for the sixth consecutive year.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
