AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 13, 2025. In the midst of the energy transition, retailers are facing new challenges: increasing penetration of renewable energy, electrification of demand and a more volatile market. Short-, mid- and long‑term price forecasts have become a key tool for optimising operations, structuring long‑term contracts such as PPA and designing competitive offers tailored to evolving client needs.
In a context defined by the transition towards a more sustainable energy model, energy retailers are encountering both challenges and opportunities. Their role is no longer limited to buying and selling energy, they must now adapt to a new environment in which renewable energy, long‑term contracts (PPA) and the electrification of industrial demand are redefining the rules of the game.
Growing interest in renewable energy
Decarbonisation has become a shared goal across most sectors. Companies, especially those in industry, are driving electrification of processes as a primary route to reducing emissions. This electrification, combined with increasingly flexible consumption, is making energy supply more complex and reinforcing the need for energy market forecasts.
Price forecasts are more important than ever
For retailers, anticipating market movements is key to offering competitive prices, ensuring sustainable margins and designing products aligned with their clients’ evolving requirements. This anticipation is supported by a structured vision across three time horizons, each linked to a different type of decision‑making. In the short term, spanning hours and days, forecasting enables retailers to optimise purchases in the spot and intraday markets, adjust positions and reduce imbalance penalties. In the medium term, covering from weeks to months, forecasts support tactical decisions such as hedging strategies, indexed pricing adjustments and the planning of commercial campaigns. In the long term, extending over several years, forecasts are essential to structure PPA, set fixed prices for industrial clients and evaluate strategic growth scenarios.
PPA and long‑term tariffs
Industrial clients are increasingly seeking predictability and stability in their energy costs. To meet this demand, retailers must be able to offer well‑founded long‑term products. Market price forecasts covering 10, 15 or even 25 years are essential to design offers that are viable, attractive and bankable.
Each spring, spot market prices tend to fall, which affects PPA prices, particularly those linked to photovoltaic energy projects. In this context, hybridisation with batteries presents a strategic opportunity for retailers, as it enables the design of delivery profiles that more closely match the actual consumption needs of their clients. This increased flexibility allows for the creation of more competitive and tailored contract structures, delivering benefits to both consumers and renewable energy project developers.
Technology supporting forecasting
Energy market forecasting has become an essential tool for retailers operating in an increasingly complex and competitive landscape. The combined use of statistical models, artificial intelligence, machine learning and fundamental models allows for the generation of robust forecasts adapted to different time horizons and a wide variety of scenarios.
At AleaSoft, the AleaBlue division supports retailers of all sizes with hourly forecasts for prices, demand and renewable energy production, which form the basis for daily operations, tactical planning and strategic decision‑making. In turn, the AleaGreen division provides long‑term forecasts that are essential for structuring products such as fixed tariffs and PPA, as well as for evaluating future investment and growth scenarios. The AleaStorage division provides specialised services in the analysis and optimisation of energy storage, including revenue calculation, battery sizing and profitability assessment in various markets.
In an increasingly volatile market, forecasts are no longer optional, they are the key to competing, retaining clients and growing in a landscape shaped by the energy transition.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy markets in Europe, PPA and energy storage
On July 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 57th webinar in its monthly series. The session will analyse the recent evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the current state of the PPA market, with a particular focus on the vision of large consumers, and the opportunities and challenges of energy storage. The session will also address the IDAE’s call for aid, endowed with €700 million, aimed at energy storage projects. The analysis table of the webinar in Spanish will include the participation of Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, who will provide the viewpoint of large electro‑intensive consumers, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell, who will analyse the challenges and opportunities related to the storage and renewable energy project financing in the current market context.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
