AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, December 3, 2024. In November, monthly prices in most major European electricity markets exceeded €100/MWh. In almost all markets, this was the highest monthly price since at least May 2023. The increase in gas prices, which reached the highest average since December 2023, was the main driver of these increases. Rising CO2 prices and electricity demand, as well as declining photovoltaic energy production also drove the price increases compared to October even though wind energy production increased in most markets. Photovoltaic energy registered production records for November in Spain, Italy, France and Portugal.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In November 2024, all major European electricity markets registered more than 10% growth in solar photovoltaic energy production compared to the same month of the previous year. The Portuguese market led the percentage increases, with 35%. In the other markets, solar photovoltaic energy production increased between 13% in Germany and 23% in Italy.
In contrast, there was the opposite trend when comparing solar energy production between October and November 2024. As a consequence of reduced daylight hours, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in November in all analysed markets. The German market registered the largest decline, 54%. In the other markets, declines ranged from 12% in Spain to 25% in France.
Four markets broke the historical record for November photovoltaic energy production. The Spanish market was the leader with a production of 2311 GWh. It was followed by the Italian and French markets, which produced 1430 GWh and 1188 GWh with this technology, respectively. The Portuguese market closed the list with a production of 267 GWh.
The above production increases reflected the year‑on‑year increase in installed photovoltaic energy capacity. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between November 2023 and November 2024, Spain added 4088 MW to the peninsular system. In the same period, the Portuguese market expanded its solar capacity by 1002 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In November 2024, wind energy production decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to November 2023. Declines ranged from 25% in the German market to 41% in the Italian market. The exception was the Portuguese market, where wind energy production increased by 5.8% year‑on‑year.
Compared to October 2024, wind energy production increased in November in most analysed markets. Increases ranged from 7.0% in the Portuguese market to 33% in the Italian market. The Spanish market was the exception, with wind energy production falling by 12% compared to October.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between November 2023 and November 2024, Spain added 789 MW of wind energy capacity to the peninsular system. In the same period, the Portuguese market gained 31 MW of new capacity.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In November 2024, electricity demand increased in the Netherlands, Great Britain, Belgium and France compared to the same period in 2023. The Dutch market registered the largest increase, 4.5%, while the French market registered the smallest increase, 1.1%. The opposite trend was observed in Germany and the Southern European markets. In the Spanish and German markets, demand fell by 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, and in the Italian market by 0.7%. The Portuguese market registered the smallest decline in demand, with a 0.4% drop compared to November 2023.
However, when analysing the changes in demand compared to October 2024, the situation was much more uniform across all major European markets. With the seasonal change and colder temperatures, demand increased in all analysed markets compared to the previous month. The French, British and Dutch markets registered double‑digit growth, 18%, 14% and 12% each. Southern European markets registered a smaller increase in demand compared to October, with growth of 2.8%, 2.5% and 1.6% in Italy, Portugal and Spain, respectively.
In most analysed markets, November 2024 was colder than the same month in 2023. The decrease in average temperatures ranged from 0.2 °C in France to 1.0 °C in Italy. In contrast, in Spain, Portugal and Great Britain, average temperatures increased year‑on‑year by between 0.3 °C and 0.5 °C.
In line with the advance of autumn, average temperatures in November were lower than in the previous month in all analysed markets. Variations ranged from ‑6.5°C in Italy to ‑3.2°C in Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the month of November 2024, the monthly average price in most major European electricity markets was above €100/MWh. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, which had an average of €37.28/MWh. The IPEX market of Italy registered the highest monthly price, €130.89/MWh. In the other European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €100.53/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of France to €117.30/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Compared to October, average prices rose in all European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The Nordic and French markets registered the largest percentage price increases, 56% and 62%, respectively. In the remaining markets, prices increased between 12% in the Italian market and 52% in the MIBEL market of Spain.
Comparing the average prices for the month of November with those registered in the same month of 2023, prices also rose in most analysed markets. The exception was the Nordic market, with a price drop of 50%. On the other hand, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest rises, 65% in both cases. In the other markets, price increases ranged from 7.5% in the Italian market to 25% in the German market.
As a result of the price increases, in November 2024, the German, Spanish, Dutch and Portuguese markets registered their highest averages since March 2023. The Belgian and British markets reached their highest averages since April 2023. The French market reached the highest average since May 2023, while the Italian market registered the highest average since November 2023. As for the Nordic market average, it was the highest since May 2024.
In November 2024, the increase in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices compared to the previous month, the fall in solar energy production and the increase in demand favoured price increases in European electricity markets, despite the increase in wind energy production in most analysed markets.
On the other hand, the increase in the average gas price and the decrease in wind energy production compared to November 2023 in most markets led to year‑on‑year price increases in European electricity markets. In addition, electricity demand increased in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $73.40/bbl in the month of November. This value was 2.6% lower than that reached by the Front‑Month futures of October, $75.38/bbl. It was also 11% lower than the corresponding to the Front‑Month futures traded in November 2023, $82.03/bbl.
At the beginning of November, the production decline in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Rafael and the US government’s intention to refill its strategic reserves exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices. OPEC+’s decision to postpone the production increases scheduled for December also put upward pressure on prices in November. Despite these factors, Brent oil futures prices declined during the month, influenced by concerns about demand evolution. In November, both the International Energy Agency and OPEC lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the month of November was €44.71/MWh. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the highest monthly average since December 2023.
Compared to the average of Front‑Month futures traded in October, €40.42/MWh, the November average increased by 11%. Compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the month of November 2023, when the average price was €45.75/MWh, there was a decrease of 2.3%.
Hurricane Rafael also exerted its upward influence on TTF gas futures prices in early November. In addition, concerns about gas supplies from Russia and the prospects of increased demand due to lower temperatures also contributed to the price increase compared to the previous month. On the other hand, high European reserve levels kept settlement prices below €45/MWh in most sessions of the first half of the month. This contributed to the monthly average being lower than in November 2023. However, European reserve levels at the end of November 2024 were lower than the previous year’s levels, which has helped settlement prices to exceed that level in the second part of the month.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they reached an average price in November of €67.51/t. According to the data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this represents an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous month’s average, which was €63.93/t. Compared to the November 2023 average, €79.84/t, the November 2024 average was 15% lower.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage and hybridisation
The AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting is specialised in revenue calculation, optimisation, management and sizing of energy storage, such as batteries, for stand‑alone projects and for hybrid systems combining renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy, with energy storage systems. AleaStorage reports are based on hourly price simulations and optimisation algorithms that take into account the technical characteristics of the system and the opportunities for energy sales in the markets.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
