AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 9, 2022. In the week of October 31, European electricity markets prices increased compared to the previous week, except in the case of the Nord Pool market. This trend continued in the first days of the second week of November in most markets. The rise in gas prices favoured this behaviour. However, on November 2 a negative hourly price was reached in the Belgian market.
European electricity markets
In the week of October 31, prices of almost all European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting increased compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, where prices fell by 28%. On the other hand, the largest price increase was that of the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, of 35%, while the smallest was that of the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, of 0.4%. In the rest of the markets, the price increases were between 5.5% of the IPEX market of Italy and 20% of the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the first week of November, the highest average, of €137.04/MWh, was that of the Italian market. On the other hand, the lowest weekly average was that of the Nordic market, of €52.29/MWh. In the rest of the markets, prices were between €130.25/MWh of the MIBEL market of Portugal and €108.36/MWh of the German market. However, when taking into account the adjustment that some consumers have to pay as compensation for the limitation of gas prices applied in the MIBEL market, the average of the Spanish market exceeded that of the Italian market, reaching €139.01/MWh.
On the other hand, the average of the first three days of the second week of November was also higher than the average of the same period of the first week of the month in most of the analysed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic market, with a drop of 34%, and the Iberian market, with a decrease of 8.4%. On the other hand, the largest rise in prices was that of the Italian market, of 49%. In the rest of the markets, the increases were between 3.9% of the Belgian market and 7.4% of the French market.
As a result, in the period from November 7 to 9, the lowest average price was that of the Nordic market, of €47.62/MWh. The averages of the German and Belgian markets were also below €100/MWh, specifically €99.32/MWh and €99.45/MWh, respectively. Instead, the highest average, of €186.50/MWh, was that of the Italian market, followed by the price of the French market, of €125.92/MWh.
Regarding hourly prices, on November 2, between 2:00 and 3:00, a negative price of ‑€4.10/MWh was reached in the Belgian market, the lowest in that market since October 8. On the other hand, in the first three hours of Monday, November 7, a price of €0.09/MWh was registered in the markets of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.
In the case of daily prices, in the Dutch market, the price of November 1, of €70.42/MWh, was the lowest since May 28. In the German market, the lowest price since that day of May was registered on Sunday, November 6, and was €51.09/MWh.
During the week of October 31, the 31% rise in the weekly average price of TTF gas in the spot market compared to the previous week exerted its upward influence on European electricity markets prices. The evolution of the gas price, which went from €27.16/MWh of Wednesday, November 2, to €83.85/MWh of Wednesday, November 9, also exerted its influence on the average prices of the European electricity markets in the first days of the second week of November.
Thus, during the first week of November, the effect of the behaviour of gas prices could not be offset by the decrease in electricity demand in most markets or by the increase in wind energy production in the German, French and Italian markets and in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, in the first days of the second week of November, the general increase in demand also contributed to the price increases registered in most electricity markets.
However, in the case of the Spanish market, on Saturday, November 5, the Almaraz II nuclear power plant was reconnected to the electricity grid, after its twenty‑seventh stop to refuel. This favoured the drop in MIBEL market prices in the first three days of the second week of November. In addition, at the beginning of the second week of November, the wind energy production was higher on average than that of the previous week in the Iberian Peninsula, which also contributed to the registered price decreases.
The AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasting indicates that in the whole of the second week of November, prices might continue to increase in markets such as the German, the French or the Italian, influenced by increases in demand and the decrease in renewable energy production in some cases. However, in the case of the MIBEL market, the increase in Spanish nuclear energy production might favour a decrease in prices.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the energy markets in Europe
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Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.