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AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 15, 2024. In the second week of April, prices in almost all major European electricity markets were higher than in the previous week, although in most of them the weekly average was below €50/MWh. The Iberian MIBEL market had the lowest prices for the tenth consecutive week. All markets, except Italy, registered negative hourly prices. The Spanish market had the highest number of hours with negative prices: 45. In Portugal and Italy, photovoltaic energy reached historical records. Gas and CO2 prices increased.

Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production

In the second week of April, solar energy production increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 35%, a reversal of the previous week’s decline. The Iberian market and the French market registered an increase of 28%. The Italian market showed the smallest increase, with solar energy production up 1.7% for the week as a whole. These markets continued their upward trend for the second consecutive week.

On Saturday, April 13, the historical records of solar photovoltaic energy production registered during the first week of April in the Italian and Portuguese markets were broken, reaching 123 GWh and 17 GWh of solar photovoltaic energy generation, respectively.

For the week of April 15, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, it will decline in Italy, Spain and Germany.

AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic thermosolar energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic production profile EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

In the case of wind energy production, in the second week of April, it increased by 3.2% compared to the previous week in the Italian market. However, in the German, Spanish, Portuguese and French markets, it decreased between 24% and 58%. In the case of the Iberian market of Spain and Portugal, the downward trend continued for the second consecutive week with an average drop of 39%.

According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts for the week of April 15, it will increase in all analyzed markets compared to the previous week.
AleaSoft - Wind energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

Electricity demand

During the week of April 8, electricity demand was lower than the demand registered in the previous week in most major European electricity markets. The Portuguese market registered the largest drop, 5.1%, while the Great Britain market had the smallest decline, 0.6%. Both markets registered declines for the second consecutive week. The Spanish, French and Dutch markets registered declines ranging from 1.9% in Spain to 3.6% in the Netherlands. Conversely, the German, Italian and Belgian markets registered increases of 2.8%, 2.7% and 1.0%, respectively.

In the second week of April, average temperatures increased in all analyzed markets, thus favoring lower demand in most markets. Increases ranged from 0.3 °C in France to 2.3 °C in Italy. In Belgium, temperatures were very similar to those of the previous week.

For the week of April 15, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, it will increase in Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France and Italy, while it will decrease in Great Britain and Germany.

AleaSoft - Electricity demand European countriesSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.

European electricity markets

In the second week of April, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with decreases of 16% and 40%, respectively. On the other hand, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the largest percentage price rises, 71% and 77%, respectively. In contrast, the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest percentage increase, 2.1%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 14% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany and 55% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.

In the second week of April, weekly averages continued to be below €50/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the German and Italian markets, with averages of €51.87/MWh and €77.39/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest weekly averages, €6.85/MWh and €7.55/MWh, respectively, reaching the tenth consecutive week with the lowest weekly prices. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €12.46/MWh in the French market to €48.94/MWh in the Dutch market.

Regarding hourly prices, in the second week of April, all analyzed European markets registered negative prices, except for the Italian market. The German market reached the lowest hourly price, ‑€60.07/MWh, on Sunday, April 14, from 14:00 to 15:00. This price was the lowest since early July 2023 in this market. On the other hand, the Iberian market registered the highest number of hours with negative prices, a total of 45 hours from Monday, April 8, to Sunday, April 14, reaching the lowest value, ‑€1.01/MWh, on Sunday, April 14, between 15:00 and 17:00.

During the week of April 8, the increase in the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights, as well as the decrease in wind energy production in almost all analyzed markets, had an upward influence on European electricity market prices.

AleaSoft - Solar

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the third week of April, prices might continue to increase in most analyzed European electricity markets, influenced by increased demand and lower solar energy production.

AleaSoft - European electricity market pricesSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.

Brent, fuels and CO2

In the second week of April, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained below the levels of the last sessions of the previous week, oscillating around $90/bbl. On Tuesday, April 9, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $89.42/bbl. On the other hand, on Wednesday, April 10, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $90.48/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.3% higher than the previous Wednesday. After falling on Thursday, prices rose again on Friday to $90.45/bbl. This settlement price was 0.8% lower than the previous Friday.

In the second week of April, tensions in the Middle East helped to keep Brent oil futures prices above $89/bbl. However, the rise in US crude reserves and the lack of prospects for an interest rate cut in this country exerted their downward influence on prices. On the other hand, in the second week of April, OPEC maintained its demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, while the International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts from those of the previous month.

As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Tuesday, April 9, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €27.35/MWh. In the remaining sessions of the second week of April, prices increased rapidly. As a result, on Friday, April 12, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €30.73/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 16% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since the first half of January.

Tensions in the Middle East and Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure exerted their upward influence on prices. The approval of a draft European regulation, according to which states could limit the import of gas from Russia, including liquefied natural gas, also contributed to the rise in prices in the second week of April. In addition, demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia is increasing, in anticipation of the start of purchases to replenish reserves in Europe during the summer.

As for CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, during almost the entire second week of April, they registered price increases. The exception was on Wednesday, April 10, when these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €62.87/t. As a consequence of the upward trend prevailing in the second week of April, on Friday, April 12, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.55/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 18% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since the first half of January.

AleaSoft - Prices gas coal Brent oil CO2Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the energy storage

On Thursday, April 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen held the 43rd webinar of their monthly webinar series. On this occasion, Raúl García Posada, Director at ASEALEN, the Spanish Energy Storage Association, participated for the third time in the monthly webinars. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, this webinar analyzed regulation, current situation and prospects for the coming months of energy storage.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

Long term forecasting