AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 15, 2026. In the second week of June, weekly prices fell in most European electricity markets. Higher wind energy production supported this trend despite rising demand. Spain and Portugal registered the largest declines, while prices rose in France. Brent oil and TTF gas futures fell at the end of the week as the United States and Iran made progress in peace negotiations.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of June 8, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared with the previous week. The French market registered the largest increase, 8.8%, followed by the Italian market, with a 4.7% rise. The Portuguese market registered the smallest increase, 0.9%. In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in the German and Spanish markets, marking the second consecutive week of declines in both markets. Germany registered the largest drop, 10%, while Spain registered a 2.7% decrease.
For the week of June 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the second week of June, wind energy production increased from the previous week in most major European electricity markets. The German market registered the largest increase, 32%, marking its third consecutive week of growth. The Italian market registered the smallest increase, 10%, while the Spanish market achieved a 15% rise. Both markets maintained their upward trend for the second consecutive week. By contrast, wind energy production fell by 7.2% in the Portuguese market and by 27% in the French market.
For the third week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to declines in all analyzed European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the second week of June, electricity demand increased from the previous week in most European electricity markets. The Italian market registered the largest rise, 7.3%, followed by the German market, with a 5.7% increase that reversed the downward trend of the previous two weeks. The French, Spanish, Belgian and Portuguese markets registered increases ranging from 0.5% in France and Spain to 3.9% in Portugal. The Spanish market therefore marked its fourth consecutive week of growth.
During the week, average temperatures rose in most analyzed markets. Portugal registered the largest increase, 1.1 °C, while France registered the smallest, 0.1 °C. Average temperatures increased by 0.7 °C in Italy and by 0.8 °C in Spain. By contrast, Great Britain, Belgium and Germany registered declines ranging from 0.9 °C in Great Britain to 1.7 °C in Germany.
In Italy and Portugal, business activity rebounded after Republic Day on June 2 in Italy and Corpus Christi on June 4 in Portugal. This rebound, together with higher average temperatures, drove electricity demand upward during the week. In Germany, business activity also recovered after several regions celebrated Corpus Christi on June 4, contributing to demand growth.
For the third week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in all major European electricity markets analyzed.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Most European markets registered their highest prices of the second week of June during the first trading sessions of the week, followed by lower prices. As a result, weekly average prices fell from the previous week in most European electricity markets. The French market provided the exception, with a 16% price increase. By contrast, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest percentage price declines, 20% in both cases. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell by between 1.6% in the British market and 18% in the Nordic market.
In the week of June 8, weekly averages remained below €85/MWh in most European electricity markets. The German, British and Italian markets provided the exceptions, with averages of €86.44/MWh, €102.52/MWh and €123.17/MWh, respectively. By contrast, the French market registered the lowest weekly average, €26.21/MWh, despite its price increase. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €45.42/MWh in the Spanish market to €84.88/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding daily prices, the French market registered prices below €30/MWh in most sessions during the second week of June. Prices also fell below €30/MWh in the Spanish and Portuguese markets on June 12, in the British and Dutch markets on June 13, and in the German, Belgian and Nordic markets on June 13 and 14. On June 11, the French market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the markets analyzed, €11.64/MWh. On June 13, the British market registered its lowest price since April 12, €27.42/MWh. That day, the Belgian and Dutch markets registered their lowest prices since May 2, €28.51/MWh and €29.43/MWh, respectively. On June 14, the German and Italian markets also registered their lowest prices since May 2, €25.12/MWh and €91.15/MWh, respectively.
Meanwhile, daily prices exceeded €100/MWh from Monday through Friday in the Italian market. The German, Belgian, British and Dutch markets also registered prices above €100/MWh during some trading sessions in the second week of June, while the Nordic market exceeded that level on Monday, June 8. On June 10, the Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the markets analyzed, €146.65/MWh. This marked its highest price since April 15.
In the week of June 8, the decline in the weekly price of CO2 emission allowances and the increase in wind energy production across most markets put downward pressure on European electricity market prices. Demand also fell in the British market. By contrast, higher demand and lower wind energy production in the French market contributed to the price increase there.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise in most European electricity markets during the third week of June, as higher demand and lower wind energy production put upward pressure on prices. Gas prices will also influence price trends in European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the FrontMonth in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $94.25/bbl, on Monday, June 8. Prices remained above $90/bbl through Thursday. On Friday, June 12, prices fell by 3.4% from the previous day and Brent oil futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $87.33/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 6.2% below the previous Friday’s level and marked the lowest price since March 6.
During the second week of June, developments in the Middle East conflict continued to influence Brent oil futures prices. Expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran drove prices lower at the end of the week. The OPEC+ agreement to continue increasing production in July and US inflation data also put downward pressure on prices during the week. The announcement on Sunday, June 14, regarding the agreement reached to end the conflict between the United States and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, led to these futures trading below $85/bbl on Monday, June 15. The official signing of this agreement is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the FrontMonth, settlement prices exceeded €48.50/MWh during almost the entire week. On June 10, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €49.99/MWh. By contrast, after falling by 5.9% from Thursday, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €46.77/MWh, on Friday, June 12. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 3.6% below the previous Friday’s level.
Hostilities in the Middle East kept TTF gas futures prices above €48.50/MWh during almost the entire second week of June. However, progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran drove prices lower at the end of the week. Following news of an agreement to end the conflict, these futures traded below €44.60/MWh on June 15.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €76.17/t, on Tuesday, June 9. By contrast, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €77.52/t, on June 10. Prices remained above €77/t during the following trading sessions. On Friday, June 12, the settlement price reached €77.17/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 0.3% above the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, June 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 67th edition of its monthly webinar series. Speakers from ENGIE Spain will join the series for the seventh time. The June webinar will cover recent developments in European energy markets and the prospects for the second half of 2026, the opportunities and challenges for growth in the renewable energy sector, the current situation and trends in the PPA market in Spain, as well as prospects for battery energy storage and hybridization with photovoltaic energy.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
