AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 27, 2026. In the fourth week of July, weekly prices fell in most European electricity markets, although most markets still averaged more than €105/MWh. Higher wind energy production and lower demand supported this trend. Italy and Great Britain bucked the trend. Italy’s greater exposure to gas prices allowed the rise in TTF prices to push electricity prices higher. The conflict in the Middle East drove up Brent oil and TTF gas futures, while Italy set a new daily wind energy production record for July.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of July 20, solar photovoltaic energy production fell from the previous week in most major European electricity markets. Portugal registered the largest decline, at 9.4%, followed by Italy at 3.8% and Spain at 1.8%. Production in Germany remained nearly stable, with a 0.8% decrease. France registered the only increase among the markets analyzed, 4.4%, marking its second consecutive week of growth.
On July 24, Italy reached an all‑time high in wind energy production for a July day, at 171 GWh.
For the week of July 27, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in Spain and Italy. In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy production will decline in Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the fourth week of July, wind energy production increased from the previous week in all major European electricity markets. Portugal registered the largest increase, at 43%, followed by Spain at 30% and Italy at 29%. Wind energy production rose by 23% in Germany and by 8.9% in France, the smallest increase among the markets analyzed.
For the week of July 27, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate that wind energy production will decline in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. In contrast, wind energy production will increase in Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the fourth week of July, electricity demand fell from the previous week in most major European electricity markets. Belgium registered the largest decrease, at 11%, followed by Italy at 7.0% and France at 5.2%. Demand fell by 4.2% in Germany and by 2.1% in Spain. In contrast, Portugal registered the largest increase, 1.3%. Demand in Great Britain remained stable, with a variation of 0.2%.
Average temperatures fell during the week in most of the markets analyzed. Germany registered the largest decrease, at 3.8 °C, followed by France at 3.0 °C. Average temperatures fell by 1.6 °C in Italy, by 0.6 °C in Belgium and Great Britain, and by 0.2 °C in Spain. Portugal represented the exception, with a 0.2 °C increase.
For the week of July 27, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that electricity demand will increase in Germany, France, Italy and Belgium. Demand will remain stable in the Iberian Peninsula.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of July, weekly average prices fell from the previous week in most major European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets represented the exceptions, with price increases of 3.1% and 5.4%, respectively. The French market registered the largest percentage price decrease, 18%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell by between 2.0% in Portuguese market and 14% in the Nordic market.
In the week of July 20, weekly average prices exceeded €105/MWh in most European electricity markets despite the price declines. The Nordic and French markets represented the exceptions, with averages of €49.27/MWh and €94.87/MWh, respectively. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €169.98/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €106.58/MWh in the German market to €135.53/MWh in British market.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market registered prices below €70/MWh during nearly the entire fourth week of July. The Spanish, French and Portuguese markets also registered prices below €70/MWh on Sunday, July 26. On that day, the Nordic market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the markets analyzed, €12.67/MWh, its lowest price since May 25.
On the other hand, most European electricity markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh from July 20 through July 24. In Italy, daily prices exceeded €155/MWh throughout the fourth week of July. On July 23, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the markets analyzed, €181.08/MWh. This level marked its highest price since January 21, 2025. On Monday, July 27, the Italian market reached an even higher price than on Thursday, July 23, €185.06/MWh, although this figure remained below the level registered on January 20, 2025. On July 22, the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached a daily price of €150.32/MWh, their highest price since February 22, 2023.
During the week of July 20, widespread growth in wind energy production and lower demand in some markets drove prices down in most European electricity markets. However, in Italy, higher gas and CO2 emission allowance prices offset the effects of increased wind energy production and lower demand, pushing electricity prices higher.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise in most European electricity markets during the last week of July as wind energy production declines and demand increases in some markets. Changes in gas and CO2 emission allowance prices will also shape European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $89.22/bbl, on Monday, July 20. Prices rose during the following trading sessions and reached their weekly maximum settlement price on Thursday, July 23, $100.69/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 7.0% above the previous session and marked the highest level since May 23. On Friday, July 24, the settlement price reached $96.78/bbl, 9.9% higher than the previous Friday.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent oil futures prices higher during the fourth week of July. Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on July 23. These attacks increased perceived supply risks and drove Brent prices to their highest level in two months. The United States continued its attacks on Iran throughout the week and warned of further retaliation against potential attacks on vessels in the region, supporting the crude oil risk premium.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price on Monday, July 20, €58.76/MWh, already 2.3% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise during the rest of the week and reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €63.58/MWh, on Friday, July 24. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 11% above the previous Friday and marked the highest level since January 24, 2023.
Lower liquefied natural gas flows from the Persian Gulf and competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes supported the rise in TTF gas futures prices. European gas storage facilities currently hold inventories equal to 55% of their capacity, below the levels registered in previous years, adding upward pressure to prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €83.21/t, on Tuesday, July 21. On July 22, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €86.65/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 4.1% above Tuesday’s level and marked the highest price since January 28. Prices fell during the final trading sessions of the week and the settlement price reached €83.42/t on Friday, July 24, 5.4% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, July 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 68th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session reviewed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and looked at the current situation and prospects of PPA and at the financing of renewable energy and storage projects, including the role of long‑term price forecasts in project assessment. The program also covered the prospects for energy storage and the opportunities for hybridization with renewable energy and self‑consumption. The discussion panel of the Spanish‑language webinar featured Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.