AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, September 21, 2026. In the third week of September, weekly prices fell in most major European electricity markets, supported by higher wind energy production and lower demand, despite high gas prices. France, Portugal, Spain and the Nordic market reached their highest daily prices since December 2022. TTF gas registered its highest settlement price since then, while Brent remained above $100/bbl and reached its highest level since May.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 14, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in all major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Portugal registered the largest decline, 10%, after two consecutive weeks of increases. France and Germany registered decreases of 6.2% and 5.4%, respectively. In Spain, production decreased by 4.4%, while Italy registered the smallest decline, 1.0%. Germany, France, Spain and Italy registered decreases for the second consecutive week.
For the week of September 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to production increases in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the third week of September, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 49%, followed by Germany, with a 43% rise after the decline in the previous week. In France, production increased by 10% after two consecutive weeks of decreases. Spain registered a 7.4% increase. Portugal and Spain registered increases for the second consecutive week. In contrast, Italy registered a 16% decrease after the increase in the previous week.
For the week of September 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate decreases in the German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets. In contrast, wind energy production will increase in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of September 14, electricity demand increased in Belgium, Germany and Portugal compared with the previous week. Belgium registered the largest increase, 1.5%, after two consecutive weeks of declines. In Germany, demand grew by 1.4%, marking its fourth consecutive week of increases, while demand in Portugal rose by 1.0% for the third consecutive week.
In contrast, demand decreased in Italy, Spain, Great Britain and France. Italy registered the largest decline, 7.3%, followed by Spain and Great Britain, with decreases of 4.0% in both markets. In France, demand fell by 1.0%. Italy, Spain and France registered declines for the second consecutive week.
During the week, average temperatures decreased in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany and France compared with the previous week. Italy registered the largest drop, 1.8 °C, followed by Spain, with a decrease of 1.3 °C, and Portugal, with 1.2 °C. Temperatures also fell by 0.4 °C in Germany and 0.2 °C in France. In contrast, temperatures increased by 0.5 °C in both Great Britain and Belgium.
For the week of September 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate an increase in the Portuguese market. In contrast, demand will decrease in the Italian, German, French, Belgian, British and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices in the main European electricity markets decreased in the third week of September, except in the Italian market. The British market registered the largest decline, 23%, followed by the Nordic market, with a 22% drop, and Belgium, with 19%. Prices also fell by 17% in the Netherlands and Germany and by 14% in France. Portugal and Spain registered the smallest declines, 3.8% in both cases. In contrast, the Italian market increased by 2.5%.
Despite the declines, weekly prices remained above €130/MWh in most European markets, except in the Nordic market, which registered the lowest average, €81.46/MWh. In contrast, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €215.82/MWh. The Belgian and Dutch markets averaged €141.42/MWh and €139.11/MWh, respectively. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €131.75/MWh in France to €135.25/MWh in Germany.
As for daily prices, the week began with high prices in most European markets, exceeding €200/MWh in Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands. On Monday, September 14, the German market reached €256.55/MWh, the highest price of the week among the markets analyzed, while the Belgian and Dutch markets exceeded €229/MWh. That day, the French, Portuguese, Spanish and Nordic markets reached their highest daily averages since December 2022. The German and Dutch markets registered their highest prices since December 2024, while the British market reached its highest price since January 2025. The Italian market, meanwhile, registered prices above €200/MWh from Monday through Saturday of the third week of September.
Starting on September 19, prices fell sharply in most markets. On September 19, the British market registered a price of €31.24/MWh, while the Nordic market reached €9.71/MWh. On Sunday, September 20, the German market registered €21.75/MWh and the Nordic market €8.59/MWh, the lowest price of the week among the markets analyzed.
Higher wind energy production, together with lower demand in some markets, supported the decline in prices across most European electricity markets. However, in Italy, lower wind energy production and high gas and CO2 emission allowance prices contributed to the price increase.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts point to increases in most of the European electricity markets analyzed for the week of September 21, driven by lower wind energy production. However, prices will fall in the Italian market, where wind energy production will increase. Gas price developments will also influence electricity market prices across Europe during the fourth week of September.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
On Tuesday, September 15, Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $108.75/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since May 20. Prices subsequently declined. On Friday, September 18, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $103.87/bbl, 0.7% lower than on the previous Friday.
Brent oil futures remained above $100/bbl throughout the third week of September amid the war between the United States and Iran and severe restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Drone attacks that damaged Saudi Arabia’s East‑West oil pipeline pushed prices up to the weekly high on September 15, with a 2.9% increase from the previous day. Prices then fell to the weekly low on September 18 after Saudi Arabia announced plans to route more crude through Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, easing some concerns about Saudi oil supplies.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €82.57/MWh on Monday, September 14. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since December 30, 2022. Prices fell through Thursday, September 17, when they reached their weekly low of €76.35/MWh. After rising by 4.1% from the previous day, the settlement price reached €79.52/MWh on Friday, September 18, the same level as on the previous Friday.
The war between the United States and Iran continued to limit liquefied natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, while strong Asian demand intensified competition for available cargoes. In addition, European Union gas reserves stood at around 68% in mid‑September, below the five‑year average of 84%. However, the end of a strike at the Dunkirk LNG terminal in France contributed to the weekly low reached on Thursday.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €87.99/t on Monday, September 14. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since January 28. Prices subsequently fell and reached their weekly low of €84.76/t on September 16. However, settlement prices exceeded €86/t in the final two sessions of the week. On Friday, September 18, the settlement price reached €86.89/t, 1.6% higher than on the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, September 17, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 69th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session analyzed recent developments and the prospects for European energy markets, as well as the current situation, expected development and main challenges of energy storage, together with progress, challenges and opportunities in self‑consumption. Josefin Berg, Associate Director of Renewables Markets at S&P Global Energy, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft, participated as speakers. Francisco Valverde Sánchez, an independent renewable energy development professional, also participated in the analysis panel of the Spanish‑language webinar, with Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, as moderator.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.