AleaSoft, April 17, 2020. At AleaSoft various actions to analyse the effect of the coronavirus on the energy demand and the European electricity markets are being carried out. The last one was the Webinar imparted yesterday, in which the future perspectives were also analysed. On May 21, a second part will be held to update the evolution of the markets and talk about the financing of the renewable energy projects. An observatory was also created on its website to monitor the demand and prices with updated data.
On April 16, AleaSoft imparted the Webinar “Influence of coronavirus on electricity demand and the European electricity markets” with a great success of participation. This Webinar is part of the actions that the company is carrying out to analyse the effects of the coronavirus crisis on the energy markets.
The Webinar started by analysing the effects of this crisis on the Brent oil, gas and CO2 emission rights markets. The crude oil prices suffered a sudden and sharp drop when the agreement between the producing countries to control the production and maintain the price level ended. In mid‑February the prices were close to $60/bbl and now it is in values around $20/bbl. In fact, some days it was trading below this figure. The coronavirus crisis that started in China, a huge consumer of oil, caused the world demand to drop, which also contributed to the fall in prices.
The gas prices were also falling throughout the period of the COVID‑19 crisis. However, in this market, the prices were already following a downtrend since October 2018 due to the oversupply.
The variations in prices of the oil and gas markets are fundamentally marked by geopolitical tensions. On April 12, the OPEC+ member countries agreed to further cuts in oil production with the aim of stabilising the market and raising prices. At the moment the low demand and the pessimistic forecasts about the growth of the world economy are marking the evolution of the market and the prices are still low.
The CO2 emission rights prices fell as a result of the coronavirus crisis, going from being around €24/MWh until March 11, to being below €16/MWh on March 15. After this they recovered but are still around €20/MWh.
The electricity demand fell in all European markets, even reaching levels of 17 years ago in some markets. The electricity markets prices also fell due to declining demand and low gas and CO2 prices. An observatory was created on the AleaSoft website to monitor the effect of the coronavirus crisis on the demand and on the prices of the main European markets with data that is updated daily.
In the Webinar, the future prospects once the health crisis is ended and during the economic crisis that this situation generated were also analysed.
Taking into account that we are in a context that is rapidly changing, AleaSoft will impart the Webinar “Influence of coronavirus on electricity demand and the European electricity markets (part 2)” on May 21, which will show updated data and scenarios and the following topics will be covered:
- Evolution of the European energy markets
- Financing of renewable energy projects
At AleaSoft Webinars on topics related to the energy markets and making forecasts for this sector are regularly organised. On March 10, a Webinar was imparted on “Statistical techniques for electricity market prices forecasting. The Alea model.” with the following content:
- Characteristics of the statistical models and the fundamental models for electricity market prices forecasting
- Autoregressive models and the temporal structure of the electricity market prices series
- The explanatory variables: the regression and the factors that affect the price of the electricity markets
- Neural networks and Machine Learning algorithms
- Hybrid models: the Alea model
On December 10 of last year the Webinar “Long‑term electricity market price forecasting for PPAs” was held, which focused on:
- Alea models. General methodological aspects of electricity market price forecasting
- Mid‑term price forecasting with price distributions and associated probabilities
- Long‑term price forecasting with confidence bands and captured price by photovoltaic technology
- Medium and long‑term strategy: go merchant or sign a PPA
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting