AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 4, 2026. In the last week of April, weekly average prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week, although they generally remained below €65/MWh. Higher gas prices and lower renewable energy production drove this upward trend. On May 1, prices fell, with the French market registering its lowest daily price on record and Germany and Belgium registering negative prices, while the German market set a photovoltaic energy production record for an April day on April 30.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of April 27, solar photovoltaic energy production rose in the German market for the second consecutive week, this time by 11%. By contrast, the Iberian markets, France and Italy registered declines. The French market registered the steepest drop, 16%, followed by Portugal at 13% and Italy at 4.8%. These markets reversed the upward trend registered the previous week. The Spanish market registered the smallest decline, 1.9%, and marked its second consecutive week of decreases in photovoltaic energy production.
On Thursday the 30th, the German market set a solar photovoltaic energy production record for an April day, reaching 457 GWh.
For the week of May 4, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to a recovery in production in the Italian and Spanish markets. In contrast, photovoltaic energy production will decline in Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the last week of April, wind energy production increased in the Spanish market compared to the previous week. Spain registered a 16% rise after four consecutive weeks of declines. However, Portugal, Germany, Italy and France registered falls in wind energy production. Portugal showed the sharpest fall, 32%, while France registered the smallest decline, 14%. Italy extended its downward trend for a second straight week with a 15% drop. Germany, meanwhile, registered a 22% decrease in wind energy production.
In the first week of May, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate a production increase in the Iberian markets. Meanwhile, France, Germany and Italy will register further declines in wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of April 27, electricity demand fell across the main European markets compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest decline, 6.2%, followed by Italy and France, both down 5.3%. The British market showed the smallest reduction, 0.5%, while Portugal, Spain and Belgium registered declines of 1.4%, 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Except for Belgium, all analyzed markets extended the downward trend for a second consecutive week.
Average temperatures increased in most of these markets during the week. Belgium and Germany registered the largest rises, 4.1 °C and 3.7 °C, respectively. Italy registered the smallest increase, 0.8 °C, while in France and Great Britain average temperatures rose by 2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively. The Iberian Peninsula was the exception, with temperatures slipping by 0.1 °C in Spain and 0.5 °C in Portugal.
Lower business activity linked to the May 1 International Workers’ Day holiday mainly pushed demand down. In addition, milder temperatures than in the previous week helped soften electricity demand.
For the week of May 4, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in all analyzed markets as business activity rebounds after the May 1 holiday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Most major European electricity markets started the last week of April with prices above those seen in the first days of the previous week. Despite the sharp price drop registered in most markets on May 1, prices generally rebounded quickly over the weekend. As a result, weekly average prices increased compared to the previous week in most cases. However, the British, Dutch and Belgian markets registered price declines of 2.7%, 3.9% and 7.3%, respectively. The Italian market registered a weekly average close to the previous week, edging down 0.6%. By contrast, the French market registered the largest percentage price increase, 63%, partly because it started from a very low base after registering the lowest weekly average among the analyzed markets the previous week. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 4.7% in the German market and 39% in the Nordic market.
In the week of April 27, weekly averages stayed below €65/MWh in most European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets were the exceptions, with averages of €105.61/MWh and €108.49/MWh, respectively. The French market registered the lowest weekly average, €12.45/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €55.24/MWh in the Nordic market to €64.75/MWh in the Dutch market.
As for daily prices, the French market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, ‑€41.39/MWh, on Friday, May 1. This also marked the lowest daily price in its history. On May 1, the German and Belgian markets also registered negative daily prices, ‑€2.08/MWh and ‑€5.47/MWh, respectively. In Belgium, this marked the lowest price since May 12, 2025. Meanwhile, the Dutch and Italian markets registered their lowest prices since the first half of October 2025, €1.24/MWh and €82.62/MWh, respectively, on May 1.
On the other hand, the Italian and British markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh in most sessions of the last week of April, exceeding €120/MWh on some occasions. On Tuesday, April 28, the Italian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €128.59/MWh.
In the week of April 27, higher weekly gas prices and lower wind and solar energy production pushed prices up in most European electricity markets. However, lower demand allowed prices to fall in some markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise across European electricity markets in the first week of May, driven by recovering demand. Lower wind energy production will support price increases in Germany, France and Italy. Germany will also register lower solar energy production. In addition, gas prices will continue to shape price behavior across European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market started the last week of April on an upward path. On April 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $118.03/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the highest price since April 1. Prices then turned lower in the last two sessions of the week. As a result, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $108.17/bbl, on Friday, May 1. Even so, this price still stood 2.7% above the previous Friday.
Developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran continued to shape Brent oil futures prices during the last week of April. On the other hand, on Sunday, May 3, OPEC+ agreed to continue raising production in June despite the United Arab Emirates leaving the organization on Friday, May 1. However, exports from Persian Gulf producing countries could remain constrained because of the conflict between the United States and Iran.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they started the last week of April with falling prices and registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €43.59/MWh, on Tuesday, April 28. A day later, after a 7.5% jump, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €46.85/MWh. Prices then moved lower again but held above €45/MWh. On Friday, May 1, the settlement price stood at €45.77/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.0% higher than the previous Friday.
During the last week of April, the conflict between the United States and Iran continued to support TTF gas futures prices. At the same time, European gas storage levels currently remain below 35%.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they stayed below €75/t during almost the entire last week of April. However, on Tuesday, April 28, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €75.13/t. On April 29, after a 2.5% drop from Tuesday, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €73.22/t. On Thursday, April 30, the settlement price edged slightly higher to €73.80/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price still stood 1.5% below the last session of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and storage
The 66th edition of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s monthly webinar series will take place on Thursday, May 21. This event will feature Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy communicator and consultant. The webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and their impact on energy storage. It will also cover the role of batteries, storage and hybridization in the electricity system, revenue streams and opportunities, in addition to success case studies in hybridization.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.