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The cannibalisation of prices and projects financing, the issues that most concern renewable energy producers

AleaSoft, October 9, 2020. Based on the comments and questions from professionals in the renewable energy sector, conclusions can be drawn on the issues that concern them most: project financing, risk coverage and the future evolution of market prices.

AleaSoft - Wind energy farm

On October 8, the webinar on “Electricity Market Price Curves for Renewable Energy Financing” was held, organised by the Association of Renewable Energy Companies (APPA) within the framework of the #RenewableEnergyTalks. At the event, where more than 700 professionals from the renewable energy sector registered, the topics discussed revolved around some of the aspects that most concern producers and developers of renewable energy facilities, among them: financing, risk coverage and the future evolution of the market prices. The guest, on this occasion, was Antonio Delgado Rigal, CEO at AleaSoft, a company that, precisely, that October 8, celebrated its 21st anniversary.

Analysing the questions that the attendees raised after the initial presentation, it is concluded that the impact of the increase in renewable energy capacity, for example, with the objectives set by the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), on the markets prices is one of the issues that most concern the professionals in the sector. Aspects such as the cannibalisation of prices by the renewable energies themselves, the price factor respect to the average market prices or the curtailment were some of those that appeared among the questions of the participants.

To this, Antonio Delgado Rigal explained how the AleaSoft‘s forecasting models do not show a downward trend in prices in the long term or a dramatic collapse in the targeting of the main renewable energy technologies such as wind energy or photovoltaics. The key is to take into account not only the Spanish electricity market, nor the European electricity system, but the entire energy system and primary energy consumption on a continental level. In this way, it is clear that there is enough space so that the increase in renewable energy production, if at an adequate rate, does not disturb the balance between supply and demand in the market in the long term.

AleaSoft - Total energy supply Spain EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft using data from the World Energy Balances 2020 from the International Energy Agency. Data updated until 2018.

Green hydrogen

In a somewhat unexpected way, green hydrogen took center stage during the talk. After the initial presentation, it became clear that hydrogen production from renewable sources is an essential component in the long term to maintain the market balance. The production of hydrogen will mean an increase in the electricity demand, to be used as the fuel of the future for transport, especially heavy and long distances, and for those industries where the electrification of some processes, such as those that need heat, is not efficient electrify them.

Furthermore, hydrogen offers the ability to store large amounts of energy for a long time. At the moment, the only technology that is mature enough and with affordable costs to allow all this is hydrogen.

Public webinars on the evolution of energy markets and the renewable energy projects financing

Within the framework of dissemination about the energy markets and the financing of renewable energy projects, at AleaSoft a series of webinars on the “Energy markets in the recovery from the economic crisis” is being organised. The second part of this series will take place on October 29 and will also feature the participation of two invited speakers from the consulting firm Deloitte, Pablo Castillo Lekuona, Senior Manager of Global IFRS & Offerings Services and Carlos Milans del Bosch, Partner of Financial Advisory, and the topics analysed in the first part of the webinar will continue to be deepened.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

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