AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, December 29, 2025. In the fourth week of December, prices in most major European electricity markets declined compared to the previous week, with weekly averages below €85/MWh. Lower demand during the Christmas holidays, together with higher wind and solar energy production, drove this decrease. Photovoltaic energy reached all‑time highs for a December day in Germany, Italy and France. Meanwhile, CO₂ futures registered their highest settlement price at least since October 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of December 22, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. After four weeks of declines, solar energy production rose by 48% in the Portuguese market and by 21% in the Spanish market. It also increased by 29% in Italy and by 23% in France, following the declines registered the previous week.
The German, Italian and French markets registered new all‑time highs of photovoltaic energy production for a December day. In the German market, this occurred on Thursday, December 25, when solar energy production reached 87 GWh. The Italian and French markets registered 66 GWh and 54 GWh, respectively, on December 28.
During the week of December 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production will increase in the Italian and Spanish markets compared to the previous week. By contrast, solar energy production will decline in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.During the week of December 22, wind energy production maintained the upward trend observed the previous week and increased in most major European markets compared to the prior week. In the Italian market it rose by 80%, registering the largest increase for the second consecutive week. The Spanish and French markets followed, with wind energy production increasing for the second consecutive week, this time by 21% and 20%, respectively. The German market registered the smallest increase, 15%, reversing the downward trend of the previous week. By contrast, in the Portuguese market wind energy production fell by 12%.
On December 24, the French market registered 404 GWh of wind energy production, a daily value not seen since late January.
In the week of December 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production from this technology will increase in the German and Italian markets. By contrast, it will decrease in the Spanish, French and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of December 22, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend observed the prior week. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 20%, while the Belgian market registered the smallest, 4.7%. The German, Spanish, Portuguese and British markets registered declines ranging between 8.2% and 11%. The celebration of Christmas, and in some markets and regions St. Stephen’s Day on December 26, contributed to lower demand during the week.
By contrast, in the French market, where demand shows strong sensitivity to temperature variations, demand increased by 9.3% compared to the previous week, during a week in which average temperatures were 5.0 °C colder than in the prior week.
In the rest of the major European markets, average temperatures also decreased. Belgium registered the largest drop, 7.7 °C, while Italy registered the smallest decline, 1.0 °C.
For the week of December 29, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the negative trend will reverse and demand will increase in the German, Spanish, British, Belgian and French markets. However, demand will continue to decrease in the Italian and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of December, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the EPEX SPOT market of France, with a slight increase of 0.4%, and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, which rose by 7.2%. Meanwhile, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the smallest decline, 3.2%, while the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage drop in prices, 20%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 6.5% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 9.1% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of December 22, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British market and the IPEX market of Italy, whose averages were €91.33/MWh and €108.41/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €38.34/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €69.41/MWh in the French market and €83.02/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Thursday, December 25, the Nordic market registered the lowest average of the week among the markets analyzed, €11.80/MWh. This was its lowest daily price since November 5. On December 24, the Belgian market also registered its lowest price since November 5, €60.83/MWh, while the German market registered its lowest price since November 2, €69.38/MWh. In the case of the Italian market, on December 27, it reached a price of €102.89/MWh. This daily price was the lowest registered in that market since October 27.
On the other hand, during the fourth week of December, the Italian market was the only one among those analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting that registered daily prices above €100/MWh. This market reached the highest daily average of the week, €113.77/MWh, on Monday, December 22.
In the week of December 22, the increase in wind and solar energy production in most markets, as well as the decline in demand, contributed to the drop in prices in European electricity markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of January, prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by the recovery in demand and the decline in wind energy production in most markets. However, the increase in wind energy production in the German and Italian markets could help prices continue to fall in these markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $62.38/bbl, on Tuesday, December 23. By contrast, after remaining above $62/bbl for almost the entire week, on Friday, December 26, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $60.64/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.3% higher than the previous Friday.
Tensions between the United States and Venezuela, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supported Brent oil futures settlement prices remaining above $62/bbl in most sessions of the fourth week of December. However, expectations regarding a meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents to negotiate a peace agreement for Ukraine exerted downward pressure on prices toward the end of the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, December 22, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €27.69/MWh. Prices subsequently increased. On December 24 and 26, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €28.10/MWh. However, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.2% lower than the previous Friday.
Forecasts of low temperatures in January, as well as European storage levels, currently below 65%, contributed to TTF gas futures settlement prices exceeding €27.50/MWh in the fourth week of December. However, abundant supply limited prices, which remained below the previous week’s Friday price.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they remained above €87/t during the fourth week of December. On Monday, December 22, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €87.47/t. By contrast, on Tuesday, December 23, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €88.55/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price at least since October 1, 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for European energy markets, storage and demand
On Thursday, January 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the next edition of its monthly webinar series. This will be the 62nd edition and will feature speakers from PwC Spain for the sixth consecutive year. In addition to the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects from 2026 onward, the webinar will analyze the prospects for energy storage and hybridization, as well as growth in electricity demand driven by Data Centers and industry electrification. This webinar will also address the current state of regulation on PPA and renewable energy, as well as the evolution of virtual PPA and FPA (Flexibility Purchase Agreements).
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.