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European electricity markets react to increased wind energy production with price declines

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 17, 2024. In the second week of June, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. Over the weekend, almost all markets reached negative hourly prices. The Iberian market registered prices of ‑€2.00/MWh, which is the lowest value in the history of this market. France reached the lowest price since the end of May 2020 on Saturday. The increase in wind energy production in almost all markets and in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula favored these falls. Portugal reached the historical record of photovoltaic energy production and in France, both wind and solar energy registered the highest production for a June month.

Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production

In the week of June 10, solar energy production registered increases compared to the previous week in the Iberian Peninsula. In Portugal the rise was 22% and in Spain, where solar photovoltaic energy and solar thermoelectric energy are included, it was 3.0%. However, in Germany, France and Italy there were decreases of 7.4%, 3.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

Portugal reached an all‑time daily production record on Thursday, June 13, when this technology generated 22 GWh. On the same day, France, despite the drop in weekly production, registered the highest generation using this technology for a June month in history, 119 GWh.

According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, in the third week of June, in Germany and Spain it will be higher than in the previous week. However, Italy will maintain the downward trend of the previous week.

AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic thermosolar energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
AleaSoft - Solar photovoltaic production profile EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

In the second week of June, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France and Italy registered the largest increases, 131% and 108% in each case. Portugal and Germany registered increases of 60% and 49%, respectively. Spain was the exception, with a decrease in generation using this technology for the second week in a row, this time by 5.8%.

On Saturday, June 15, France registered the highest wind energy production for a June month in its history, 223 GWh.

In the week of June 17, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, it will decline in all analyzed markets.

AleaSoft - Wind energy production electricity EuropeSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.

Electricity demand

In the week of June 10, electricity demand behaved heterogeneously in the main European electricity markets. On the one hand, in the markets of Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany, demand increased compared to the first week of June. The British market registered the largest increase, which was 7.9%. In the Italian and Dutch markets rises were 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively. The German market rose for the third consecutive week, this time by 0.4%. On the other hand, the Portuguese, Spanish, Belgian and French markets registered declines in demand. The Portuguese market had the largest decline, 7.7%. In this case, the lower demand was due to the national holiday on June 10, Portugal Day, and the St. Anthony’s Day holiday on June 13, celebrated in some regions of the country. In the Spanish market the drop was 3.8% and in the Belgian market, 1.9%, while the French market showed the smallest decline, 0.7%.

During the week, average temperatures decreased compared to the previous week in all analyzed markets. In the German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets, decreases ranged from 1.2 °C in Germany to 1.6 °C in Spain. In the rest of the main European electricity markets, average temperatures decreased between 0.1 °C in Italy and 0.7 °C in Belgium.

According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, in the second week of June, it will increase compared to the previous week in Italy, Portugal, Spain and France and it will decrease in Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium.

AleaSoft - Electricity demand European countriesSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.

European electricity markets

In the second week of June, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with increases of 23% and 26%, respectively. In contrast, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price drop, 43%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 8.1% in the IPEX market of Italy and 35% in the MIBEL market of Portugal.

In the second week of June, weekly averages were below €100/MWh in all analyzed European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets had the highest averages, €87.14/MWh and €99.00/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the French market registered the lowest weekly average, €21.01/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €34.31/MWh in the Nordic market to €63.96/MWh in the German market.

Regarding hourly prices, most analyzed European markets registered negative prices on June 15 and 16. The exceptions were the Italian and British markets, which did not have negative prices in the second week of June. In addition to the weekend, the French market registered a negative price on June 10, from 16:00 to 17:00. On the other hand, the Belgian and French markets registered the lowest hourly price of the second week of June, ‑€80.02/MWh, on Saturday, June 15, from 14:00 to 15:00. In the case of the Portuguese and Spanish markets, on Sunday, June 16, these markets registered a price of ‑€2.00/MWh for two and six hours, respectively. This was the lowest hourly price in the history of these markets.

Regarding daily prices, on Saturday, June 15, the French market reached a daily price of ‑€5.76/MWh. This was the lowest price since the end of May 2020 in this market.

During the week of June 10, the increase in wind energy production in most analyzed markets had a downward influence on European electricity market prices. In addition, demand fell in some markets such as Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal. The increase in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula also contributed to the fall in prices in the MIBEL market.

AleaSoft - Wind

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices in most analyzed European electricity markets might rise again in the third week of June, influenced by the decline in wind energy production. However, prices might continue to fall in the MIBEL market, favored by the increase in solar energy production in Spain.

AleaSoft - European electricity market pricesSource: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.

Brent, fuels and CO2

In the second week of June, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market were above $80/bbl. On Monday, June 10, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $81.63/bbl, which was already 2.5% higher than the last session of the previous week. Prices continued to rise until Thursday, June 13. On that day, the futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $82.75/bbl. After a slight decline of 0.2%, on Friday, June 14, the settlement price was $82.62/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 3.8% higher than the previous Friday.

In the second week of June, expectations of increased demand as summer holidays begin in the northern hemisphere drove prices higher. However, the possibility that interest rates in the United States will remain high until the end of the year slowed the upward trend at the end of the second week of June.

As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, June 10, they registered the weekly minimum settlement price, €34.26/MWh. This price was already 3.5% higher than the last session of the previous week. Prices continued to rise until Thursday, June 13. On that day, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.72/MWh. On Friday, June 14, there was a 1.0% drop from the previous day and the settlement price was €35.36/MWh. However, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 6.8% higher than the previous Friday.

In the second week of June, unplanned declines in gas supplies from Norway contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices. On the other hand, heat waves in Asia led to increased demand for liquefied natural gas in the region, also contributing to higher prices. In addition, an unplanned supply disruption from a major Australian export plant might last for weeks.

Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, on Monday, June 10, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €70.80/t. In the second week of June, prices of these futures continued the downward trend of the previous week. As a result, on Friday, June 14, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €68.28/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.4% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since the end of April.

AleaSoft - Prices gas coal Brent oil CO2Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, the renewable energy projects financing and PPA

The 45th webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen took place on Thursday, June 13. This webinar analyzed the evolution of European energy markets and the prospects in the second half of 2024, the growth opportunities in the renewable sector, the regulatory and design challenges of the wholesale market and the current affairs of the PPA market in Spain. On this occasion, speakers from Engie Spain participated, for the sixth time, in the monthly webinar series.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will hold the 46th webinar in their series on Thursday, July 11. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will address price cannibalization, low prices, price factor of renewable technologies, the prospects for photovoltaic energy, batteries and hybridization, as well as PPA from the point of view of large and electro‑intensive consumers. New AleaSoft divisions to boost renewable energy and energy transition will also be explained. Guest speakers from AEGE, Banco Sabadell, Axpo Iberia and CESCE will participate in the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
 

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