AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 21, 2025. Accurate and coherent forecasts of electricity demand, renewable energy generation and market prices are more strategic than ever. In the context of the energy transition, scientific models that integrate these three variables are essential for helping all players in the electricity sector make informed decisions, optimise operations and plan investments.
At the heart of any sound energy strategy lie three interdependent variables: electricity demand, renewable energy generation and electricity market prices. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has been refining forecasts for these three variables for over 25 years using a scientific and coherent approach tailored to the specific needs of its clients, which include generators, retailers, large consumers, developers, investment funds, banks and system operators.
Electricity demand forecasts for a more flexible, efficient and decarbonised system
Electricity demand forecasts are key to ensuring the balance between supply and consumption, and to avoiding imbalances that may affect the stability of the system.
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting they develop hourly, daily and monthly electricity demand forecasts, with a time horizon of up to 30 years. These forecasts cover both national and regional demand, as well as specific client portfolios.
The forecasting models take into account factors such as temperature and other weather variables, historical consumption patterns, energy efficiency, economic cycles and structural changes such as self‑consumption, energy storage, transport electrification and heat pumps.
These forecasts are used by transmission system operators (TSO) and distribution system operators (DSO) for grid operation and planning. They are also fundamental for traders and retailers when designing intraday and balancing strategies, and for large and electro‑intensive consumers in planning consumption and bilateral contracting.
Renewable energy generation forecasts to manage variability
Renewable energies, particularly solar photovoltaic and wind energy, are highly variable due to their dependence on weather conditions. This variability poses challenges for the planning and operation of the electricity system, making accurate forecasts essential.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides renewable energy production forecasts for solar and wind energy, with horizons ranging from the short term (hourly resolution) to the medium and long term (monthly and annual granularity). The models are based on meteorological data, historical production behaviour and the performance of these technologies, and enable forecasting at national, regional or individual site level, such as specific solar or wind farms.
These forecasts are essential for control centres, aggregators, developers, financiers and storage system operators, as they enable optimised operations, project viability assessments and improved risk management.
Electricity market price forecasts for decision making
Electricity market prices are the result of the interaction of multiple variables: supply and demand, the availability of renewable energy generation, marginal costs of the different technologies, technical constraints of the system, interconnection status and external factors such as gas prices and CO₂ emission allowance prices.
At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, they develop hourly, daily and monthly market price forecasts across all time horizons, short, medium and long term, for major European electricity markets, as well as other markets worldwide. These forecasts are based on a proprietary methodology consolidated over more than 25 years of experience and supported by the continued trust of their clients.
These forecasts are essential tools for participating in spot and futures markets, designing hedging strategies, managing risk, asset valuation, negotiating PPA (Power Purchase Agreements), planning investments and making decisions in M&A and financing operations.
Long-term price forecast for the Iberian MIBEL electricity market carried out at the end of October 2010 by AleaSoft.Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Integrated forecasting to support the energy transition
One of the main added values of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting is the coherent integration of the three variables: electricity demand, renewable energy generation and market prices. This integration enables the representation of the electricity market behaviour and allows for consistent forecasts across all time horizons.
In the current context, marked by the acceleration in the development of renewable energy and storage systems, particular relevance is given to PPA structuring and bankable financing studies provided by AleaGreen, as well as revenue studies for battery and hybrid system projects developed by AleaStorage.
Forecasts as a strategic tool in the energy sector
Forecasts for the energy sector have become a strategic necessity in the current context. At AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, they support their clients in making informed decisions, with reliable, coherent and scientifically grounded forecasts, tailored to each player in the energy sector.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy markets
The online platform Alea Energy Database compiles energy market information in a structured format and includes tools for data analysis and visualisation. Within seconds, it provides access to historical and updated information of variables of a market, in a single environment, using a homogeneous and continuously updated format.
Alea Energy Database facilitates knowledge extraction and market intelligence generation, contributing to the digitalisation of companies in the energy sector. It is a key tool for making informed decisions, operating in markets, trading and hedging, identifying business opportunities, estimating costs before settlements, and feeding models, algorithms and publications with reliable data.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
