AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 8, 2025. News article published in the newspaper El Español, with the opinion of Antonio Delgado Rigal, PhD in Artificial Intelligence, founder and CEO of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, on the possible risks in the energy markets in the face of Donald Trump’s new policy.
US President Trump represents a vision of the world centred on the US national interest, which views with suspicion any supranational structure such as the European Union. Europe is gambling with its internal cohesion, its strategic autonomy and its position as a global player.
In this new context, it must opt for greater political integration, strengthen its defence capacity, consolidate its technological and energy sovereignty, and diversify its international alliances beyond the traditional transatlantic link.
The 2022 crisis showed how vulnerable Europe can be to geopolitical shocks. Although progress has been made in diversification and resilience, energy dependence remains a structural weakness.
New global conflicts or a US retreat under an administration like that of President Trump could further strain markets. This is why it is crucial to accelerate the energy transition and strengthen strategic autonomy in this area.
If tariff policy is not relaxed, we are heading for a global crisis with unforeseeable consequences, not only in terms of energy.
Europe must step forward. The war in Ukraine and the possible loss of unconditional support from the United States force the continent to rethink its role. It can no longer rely exclusively on external alliances: it needs to develop its own defence capabilities, strengthen its common foreign policy and build a shared strategic vision. Security and defence are no longer national issues, but essential pillars of the European project.
It should also be borne in mind that energy independence is also part of European security.
Trump can accelerate a change that is already underway: the shift from a world dominated by multilateralism and traditional alliances to a more fragmented, multipolar and volatile one.
His “America first” vision can weaken organisations such as NATO, destabilise regional balances and encourage powers such as China or Russia. Europe must prepare for a world where stability is no longer guaranteed by the US presence, but by its own ability to act with unity, speed and determination.
The contemporary globalisation that began in the 1990s is characterised by deep global interconnectedness, not only economically, but also technologically, culturally, socially and environmentally. This globalisation is at risk with serious global consequences if we go back 40 years.
President Trump’s decisions could significantly alter the strategic environment for major energy companies. If the US withdraws from climate agreements or incentivises oil and gas production, this could change global investment dynamics, encourage fossil expansion to the detriment of renewable energy and generate regulatory uncertainty.
Businesses will need to adapt to a more polarised environment, where regulatory frameworks, markets and societal expectations increasingly diverge across regions.
Businesses must prepare for a possible global fall in consumption and a scenario of very dynamic decisions to adapt to the changes we may face.
