AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 7, 2025. In the first week of April, prices in most major European electricity markets were lower than the previous week, with averages below €75/MWh in almost all of them. Renewable energy production increased in several markets. Solar photovoltaic energy set an all‑time daily production record in Italy, as well as records for a day in April in Germany and a day in March in France. Wind energy also reached a record for a day in April in Portugal. On April 4, gas and CO2 futures hit multi‑month lows and Brent registered its lowest price since August 2021. In addition, there was a drop in electricity demand in most markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the first week of April, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, with a 54% rise. France and Italy registered increases of 28% and 41%, respectively. In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy production declined in the Iberian Peninsula, with falls of 10% in Spain and 32% in Portugal.
In the week of March 31, the French, German and Italian markets reached all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On March 31, the French market registered the highest production for a day in March in history, with 127 GWh. On April 3, the German market reached the highest generation for a day in April, with 352 GWh. On April 4, the Italian market registered the highest solar photovoltaic energy production in its history, with 135 GWh.
In the week of April 7, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production with this technology will increase in the Spanish market. In contrast, it will decline in the German and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the first week of April, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The French and Portuguese markets registered the largest increases, 86% and 71%, respectively. The German market registered a 16% rise, while the Italian market registered a 20% increase. In contrast, wind energy production in the Spanish market continued to decline for the second week in a row, this time with a 17% drop.
Portugal registered record wind energy generation for a day in April on Friday, the 4th, with 99 GWh.
In the week of April 7, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will decline across the board in the main European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of March 31, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The French and British markets registered the largest declines, 8.5% and 7.3%, respectively. Spain, Germany, Portugal and Belgium also registered declines, ranging from 2.3% in the Spanish market to 4.7% in the Belgian market. In the case of the German, French, Spanish, British and Belgian markets, declines continued for the third consecutive week. On the other hand, demand increased by 0.9% in the Italian market.
The increase in average temperatures led to the reduction in electricity demand. Temperatures rose between 0.5 °C in Germany and 2.5 °C in Belgium and France. In Italy, average temperatures remained at similar levels to the previous week.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, in the second week of April, demand will increase in the markets of Great Britain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium. On the other hand, demand will continue its downward trend in the markets of Germany, France and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of April, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, which registered a 5.0% increase. The EPEX SPOT market of France registered the largest percentage price drop, 46%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 4.4% in the IPEX market of Italy and 26% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of March 31, weekly averages were below €75/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the Italian market, whose averages were €89.51/MWh and €114.23/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Nordic market and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain reached the lowest weekly averages, €26.27/MWh, €28.58/MWh and €28.62/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €38.26/MWh in the French market to €74.39/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Thursday, April 3, the Nordic market reached a price of €8.22/MWh, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. The Portuguese market also registered a daily price below €10/MWh on Friday, April 4, which was €9.65/MWh. In the case of the French market, on Sunday, April 6, the daily price was €11.27/MWh, the lowest in that market since the end of November 2024.
In the week of March 31, the decline in weekly gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, as well as the fall in electricity demand, led to lower prices in most European electricity markets. In addition, wind and solar energy production increased in most markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of April, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the fall in wind energy production. In addition, electricity demand will increase in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained above $74/bbl in the first three sessions of the first week of April. On April 2, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $74.95/bbl. This price was the highest since February 21. However, on Thursday and Friday, prices fell about 6.5% each day. As a result, on Friday, April 4, the settlement price was $65.58/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 11% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since August 21, 2021.
In the first week of April, concerns continued about the effects on global oil demand that trade tensions resulting from the imposition of tariffs may have. The announcement of new tariffs in the United States, as well as the reaction of countries such as China to them, led to a drop in Brent oil futures prices to August 2021 levels. In addition, OPEC+ announced a larger‑than‑planned production increase starting in May, while US oil reserves increased.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Tuesday, April 1, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.45/MWh. Subsequently, prices started to fall. As a result, on Friday, April 4, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €36.90/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 9.1% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since September 25, 2024.
Fears about the effects on demand of US tariff policies exerted their downward influence on TFF gas futures prices in the first week of April. Rising temperatures also contributed to the downward trend.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €69.86/t, on Tuesday, April 1. However, in the remaining sessions of the first week of April, these futures registered price declines. As a result, on Friday, April 4, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €63.82/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 7.2% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since October 22, 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and energy storage in Europe
The 54th webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on Thursday, April 10. Raúl García Posada, Director at ASEALEN, the Spanish Energy Storage Association, will be the guest speaker. This will be his fourth participation in the monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, regulation and current situation of energy storage, as well as the prospects for the coming months.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
