AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 2, 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous quarter and exceeded €90/MWh in most cases. Rising gas prices and increased demand drove the increases, while higher renewable energy production contributed to lower prices in the Iberian market. The Nordic market registered its highest quarterly price since the first quarter of 2023. Wind and photovoltaic energy production reached quarterly records in Spain and Italy, and Brent futures reached their highest level since the fourth quarter of 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the first quarter of 2026, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2025. The Italian and French markets registered double‑digit increases, 16% and 11%, respectively. In the Spanish market, photovoltaic energy production grew by 5.6%. The German market registered the smallest increase, 0.2%. However, the Portuguese market registered a year‑on‑year decrease in solar energy production of 6.7%.
The trend was similar when comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the last quarter of 2025. The German, French and Italian markets registered increases of 51%, 21% and 16%, respectively. By contrast, photovoltaic energy production in the Iberian Peninsula declined compared to the previous quarter, falling by 12% in Portugal and 1.4% in Spain.
Furthermore, solar photovoltaic energy production in the Spanish and Italian markets reached the highest level ever registered for a first quarter in 2026. According to data from Red Eléctrica, the Spanish market produced 8896 GWh of photovoltaic energy. At the same time, the Italian market closed the first quarter of 2026 with solar energy production of 6135 GWh.
This record production reflects the increase in installed photovoltaic energy capacity. In Spain, between March 2025 and March 2026, installed photovoltaic energy capacity increased by 8156 MW, according to Red Eléctrica. Likewise, in Portugal, according to REN data, installed photovoltaic energy capacity increased by 866 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the first quarter of 2026, wind energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2025. The German and Italian markets registered the largest increases, 27% in both cases. They were followed by the French and Portuguese markets with increases of 25% and 16%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest growth, 8.9%.
Comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the last quarter of 2025, the Italian market registered the largest increase in wind energy production, 41%. In the Portuguese and Spanish markets, wind energy production increased by 33% and 17%, respectively. The French market registered the smallest increase, 5.7%. By contrast, wind energy production in the German market fell by 3.2%.
Additionally, the 19 377 GWh of wind energy produced in the Spanish market during the first quarter of 2026 represents the highest quarterly value in the historical series.
This record production reflects the increase in installed wind energy capacity. In Spain, between March 2025 and March 2026, installed wind energy capacity increased by 864 MW, according to Red Eléctrica. Likewise, in Portugal, according to REN data, installed wind energy capacity increased by 44 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first quarter of 2026, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the same quarter of 2025. The Portuguese and Belgian markets registered the largest increases, 4.6% in both cases. They were followed by the Italian and German markets, with increases of 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest increase, 1.1%. By contrast, demand fell in the French and British markets by 2.7% and 0.9%, respectively.
With the progression of winter and the drop in average temperatures, demand increased in all markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting when comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the last quarter of 2025. The French and Belgian markets registered the largest increases, 10% and 9.6%, respectively. They were followed by the Portuguese and Italian markets with increases of 8.1% and 6.1%, respectively. In the British and Spanish markets, demand rose by 5.6% and 5.1%, respectively. The German market registered the smallest increase, 4.5%.
In most analysed markets, the year‑on‑year variation in average temperatures was positive when comparing the first quarters of 2025 and 2026. Average temperatures increased in the first quarter of 2026 by between 0.3 °C in Portugal and 1.3 °C in Belgium. In Spain, temperatures were similar to those of the first quarter of 2025. However, in Germany and Italy, average temperatures decreased by 0.3 °C and 0.2 °C, respectively.
Following the seasonal transition from autumn to winter, average temperatures fell in all analysed markets when comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the last quarter of 2025. The largest decrease, 3.0 °C, was observed in Spain and the smallest decrease, 1.9 °C, in France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first quarter of 2026, the quarterly average price exceeded €90/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Portuguese, Spanish and French markets, where the quarterly averages stood at €41.90/MWh, €44.18/MWh and €70.98/MWh respectively. The Italian market registered the highest quarterly price, €130.68/MWh. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, averages ranged from €90.06/MWh in the Nordic market to €103.91/MWh in the British market.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, average prices increased in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The exceptions were the Spanish and Portuguese markets, with decreases of 38% and 41%, respectively. The Nordic market registered the largest percentage price increase, 77%. In the remaining markets, prices increased by between 9.6% in the German market and 22% in the British market.
By contrast, when comparing the average prices of the first quarter of 2026 with those registered in the same quarter of 2025, prices fell in most markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with an increase of 98%. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered the largest percentage price decreases, 48% and 51%, respectively. In the remaining markets, price declines ranged from 5.0% in the Italian market to 29% in the French market.
As a result of price increases in the Nordic market, in the first quarter of 2026, it reached its highest average since the first quarter of 2023.
In the first quarter of 2026, rising gas prices and increased demand compared to the previous quarter supported higher prices in European electricity markets. In the German market, in addition, wind energy production declined. By contrast, increased hydro and wind energy production in the Spanish and Portuguese markets contributed to lower prices in those markets.
On the other hand, the decline in gas prices in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025, together with increased solar and wind energy production, contributed to the year‑on‑year fall in European electricity market prices. Additionally, demand declined in the French and British markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a quarterly average price of $78.38/bbl in the first quarter of 2026. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this quarterly average was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2024. This value was 24% higher than the Front‑Month futures average reached in the fourth quarter of 2025, $63.08/bbl. It was also 4.5% higher than the average registered in the first quarter of 2025, $74.98/bbl.
Despite concerns about demand trends and the OPEC+ agreement to increase production in April, Brent oil futures prices rose during the first quarter of 2026, influenced by the effects of the conflict between the United States and Iran on global oil supply.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the first quarter of 2026 was €40.13/MWh. Compared with the average of Front‑Month futures traded in the fourth quarter of 2025, €30.11/MWh, the first quarter 2026 average increased by 33%. Compared with the average of Front‑Month futures traded in the first quarter of 2025, €46.77/MWh, this represents a decrease of 14%.
During the first quarter of 2026, low European storage levels and concerns about supply disruptions due to instability in the Middle East supported higher TTF gas futures prices. Low temperatures also exerted upward pressure on prices at the beginning of the quarter. As a result, the quarterly average increased compared to the previous quarter. However, quarterly average temperatures were milder than those of the same quarter of the previous year in most European markets, which contributed to the year‑on‑year price decline.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached an average price of €77.73/t in the first quarter of 2026. This quarterly price was 6.8% lower than the average of the fourth quarter of 2025, €83.41/t. Compared to the average of the first quarter of 2025, €77.34/t, the first quarter of 2026 average was 0.5% higher.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on energy storage
The AleaStorage division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting helps to develop and optimise energy storage projects. AleaStorage forecasting reports are essential to ensure that storage becomes a profitable and manageable investment. Energy storage project developers, investors and banks can increase revenues and reduce risks through AleaStorage services, which include revenue and profitability calculations for both stand‑alone batteries and hybrid systems, as well as optimal storage sizing in hybrid systems such as photovoltaic or wind energy systems with batteries.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.