AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 5, 2026. In the week of September 28, weekly prices increased in most European electricity markets, supported by lower solar energy production. Spain and Portugal reached their highest daily prices since December 2022. Although photovoltaic energy production declined over the week as a whole, Portugal and Italy set all‑time records for an October day, while Portugal reached a record for wind energy production for a September day. TTF gas prices increased, driven by low European reserves and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continued to limit LNG shipments from the Middle East.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 28, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in the major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Spain and France registered the largest declines, both at 34%. In Portugal, production fell by 24%, marking its third consecutive week of declines. Germany registered a 19% decrease, while Italy registered the smallest decline, at 0.7%. Germany, France, Spain and Italy therefore reversed the increases from the previous week.
During the week, Portugal and Italy set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for an October day. Portugal registered 26 GWh on October 1 and Italy 123 GWh on October 4. On the same day, Germany reached 256 GWh, its second‑highest solar photovoltaic energy production for an October day on record.
For the week of October 5, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to production increases in Germany, Spain and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the week of September 28, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared with the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, at 108%, followed by Spain with 55% and France with 50%. All three markets returned to growth after declines in the previous week. Wind energy production decreased in Italy and Germany. Italy registered the largest decline, at 69%, after increasing in the previous week. In Germany, production fell by 20%, marking its second consecutive week of declines.
During the week, Portugal set a record for wind energy production for a September day, with 90 GWh on September 29.
For the week of October 5, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts indicate production increases in Germany, Italy and France. Wind energy production will decrease in Portugal and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of September 28, electricity demand increased in Belgium, Germany and France compared with the previous week. Belgium registered the largest increase, at 3.6%, followed by Germany with 3.2%. Both markets reversed the declines from the previous week. In France, demand increased by 0.4% after three consecutive weeks of declines.
Electricity demand decreased in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Great Britain. Portugal registered the largest decline, at 4.3%, after four consecutive weeks of increases. Demand fell by 1.1% in Spain and 0.8% in Italy, with both markets registering their fourth consecutive week of declines. Great Britain registered the smallest decrease, at 0.3%, after an increase in the previous week.
During the week, average temperatures increased in Germany, Belgium and France compared with the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, at 3.4 °C, followed by Belgium at 1.6 °C and France at 0.8 °C. Average temperatures decreased by 2.0 °C in Portugal, 1.3 °C in Spain, 0.7 °C in Italy and 0.3 °C in Great Britain.
For the week of October 5, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in Portugal, Great Britain and France. Demand will decrease in Italy, Spain, Germany and Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Weekly average prices increased in most major European electricity markets in the week of September 28 compared with the previous week. The French market registered the largest increase, at 21%, followed by the Spanish market with a 15% rise. Prices also increased by 14% in Germany and Portugal. The Dutch and Belgian markets registered the smallest increases, at 8.7% and 10%, respectively. Prices decreased in the Nordic, British and Italian markets. The Nordic market registered the largest decline, at 7.4%, while prices in the Italian and British markets fell by 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively.
The Italian market once again registered the highest weekly average, at €201.10/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest, at €101.57/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly average prices ranged from €165.90/MWh in Spain to €182.40/MWh in Belgium.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their highest prices of the week on Monday, September 28. On that day, the Portuguese and Spanish markets reached €198.10/MWh and €198.05/MWh, respectively. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, these represented the highest prices in both markets since December 6, 2022. On the same day, the French, Belgian and British markets registered their weekly highs, at €203.94/MWh, €203.46/MWh and €200.45/MWh, respectively. The German, Dutch, Italian and Nordic markets reached their highest prices of the week on Friday, October 2. On that day, the Italian market registered €216.17/MWh, the highest daily price of the week among the markets analyzed. In addition, prices in this market remained above €200/MWh from Monday through Friday. On October 2, the German and Dutch markets reached €200.50/MWh and €199.03/MWh, respectively, while the Nordic market reached €128.48/MWh.
On the other hand, the Nordic market registered the lowest price of the week among the markets analyzed, at €74.29/MWh, on Monday, September 28. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their weekly lows, both at €130.10/MWh, on Tuesday, September 29. On the following day, September 30, the German, British, French, Dutch and Belgian markets registered their lowest prices of the week, ranging from €140.75/MWh in Germany to €162.48/MWh in Belgium. The Italian market registered its weekly low, at €181.10/MWh, on Saturday, October 3.
Lower solar energy production across all the markets analyzed supported higher prices. In Germany, lower wind energy production and higher demand also contributed to the increase, as did higher demand in Belgium and France. Lower demand contributed to the price decreases in Italy and Great Britain.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will decrease in most of the European electricity markets analyzed during the week of October 5. Prices will increase in Spain, Portugal and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $105.28/bbl on Monday, September 28. This price stood 0.9% above the previous Friday’s level. Prices then decreased in three of the remaining four trading sessions. On Friday, October 2, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price of $102.25/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the lowest price since September 23 and stood 2.0% below the previous Friday’s level.
At the beginning of the week, the US president’s rejection of the Iranian peace proposal, which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, pushed prices higher. In the following days, stalled talks between the United States and Iran weighed on the market. The gradual recovery of Gulf crude oil exports, supported by the resumption of operations on Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline, along with higher US crude oil inventories, contributed to the price decline.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they settled at €73.44/MWh on Monday, September 28, 1.9% above the previous Friday’s level. On Tuesday, September 29, after falling by 4.9% from the previous day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price of €69.81/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the lowest price since August 29. Prices then increased during the rest of the week. On Friday, October 2, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €74.76/MWh, 3.7% above the previous Friday’s level.
European Union gas reserves stood at around 71% of capacity in early October, below the five‑year average for this time of year. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict LNG shipments from the Middle East to Europe, putting upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €86.17/t on Monday, September 28. This level already stood 0.7% below the previous Friday’s price. Prices then decreased in three of the remaining four trading sessions. On Friday, October 2, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price of €84.40/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the lowest price since September 5 and stood 2.8% below the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, October 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 70th edition of its monthly webinar series. Deloitte will participate in the October webinar for the seventh consecutive year. The speakers will share their views on financing renewable energy and storage projects in the current energy market environment. The session will analyze recent developments in the main European energy markets and their prospects for winter 2026‑2027, with particular attention to high gas prices and the signals that electricity futures markets show for the coming months. The webinar will also address the prospects for batteries and hybridization, their role in developing new projects, and the main challenges and opportunities associated with these technologies. In addition, the speakers will analyze the role of market forecasts in financing processes, audits and portfolio valuations. The speakers will include Jaume Pujol Benet, Partner, Financial Advisory at Deloitte, Álvaro Antón Azcoiti, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, Ricardo Benito Pascual, Director, Corporate Finance Energy at Deloitte, Álvaro Osés Lainez, Manager, Treasury Advisory at Deloitte, and Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Associate Partner at AleaSoft. They will also participate in the analysis panel, which will take place only during the Spanish‑language webinar. During the Spanish‑language webinar, Antonio Delgado Rigal, founder and CEO of AleaSoft, will moderate both the session and the analysis panel.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.