AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 22, 2025. In the third week of April, which coincided with Easter, prices in most major European electricity markets were lower than the previous week. The decrease in electricity demand and the increase in wind energy production in most markets favored this behavior. The Iberian market registered the lowest prices among the main European markets. On Saturday, April 19, the Iberian and Italian markets registered their lowest daily prices since April and July 2024, respectively, and on Sunday, April 20, Portugal broke the historical record for the lowest hourly price, with ‑€4.99/MWh.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the third week of April, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The declines ranged from 26% in Italy to 2.6% in Spain.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy production will increase in Spain and Germany during the week of April 21, while it will continue to decline in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Wind energy production increased considerably in the Iberian Peninsula during the week of April 14 compared to the previous week. Portugal led the percentage growth with an increase of 182%, followed by Spain with 87%. Italy also registered a rise, in this case by 57%. In contrast, wind energy production fell by 8.3% in both Germany and France.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will decrease in the main European electricity markets during the fourth week of April.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the third week of April, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets. Spain registered the largest percentage drop, with a decline of 7.1%, followed by Germany with 4.3%, Belgium with 2.1%, Great Britain with 1.8% and Italy with 0.9%. In contrast, demand increased in France and Portugal, with rises of 3.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
During the week, average temperatures were higher than the previous week in Germany, Italy and Belgium, with increases of 3.3 °C, 3.0 °C and 1.3 °C, in each case. However, in Great Britain, France, Spain and Portugal average temperatures fell between 0.3 °C in Great Britain and 3.5 °C in Portugal.
The decrease in work activity during the Easter week favored the fall in electricity demand in several markets, while in Portugal and France the decreases in average temperatures led to an increase in demand.
For the week of April 21, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will fall in most markets, except in Spain, where it will recover.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
During the third week of April, most major European electricity markets registered lower prices than the previous week. The largest decline occurred in the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, where prices fell by 59% and 56%, respectively, to reach the lowest levels of the week: €12.90/MWh in Portugal and €13.59/MWh in Spain. These values were below those of the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, which usually has the lowest prices. On this occasion, the weekly average Nord Pool price was €22.25/MWh, down 22% from the previous week.
The IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest decline, with a drop of 0.5%. Even so, it was once again the market with the highest weekly average price, reaching €101.87/MWh. In contrast, prices rose in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, with increases of 6.9%, 11% and 13%, respectively, and weekly averages between €80/MWh and €83/MWh.
On Saturday, April 19, several of the main European electricity markets registered the lowest daily prices of the week. On that day, the Iberian market reached the lowest price among all markets, €1.72/MWh, the lowest level in this market since April 17, 2024. In the Italian market, that day’s price was the lowest value registered since July 1, 2024, €82.34/MWh.
Most major European electricity markets, with the exception of Italy, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, registered negative or zero prices during the third week of April, especially during the weekend. The Dutch market reached the lowest price of the week among all markets, ‑€57.90/MWh, on Sunday, April 20, at 13:00. The Iberian market registered zero or negative prices every day, and Portugal set an all‑time record for the minimum price on the same Sunday, at 14:00, with ‑€4.99/MWh.
During the week of April 14, falling demand and increased wind energy production in most major European electricity markets contributed to lower prices. In contrast, in Germany, lower renewable energy generation drove prices higher.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts, prices will increase in most major European electricity markets during the fourth week of April, driven by reduced wind energy production and recovering demand in some markets. However, in Italy, prices will fall further, in line with demand that will continue to decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market continued below $70/bbl in the third week of April. On Tuesday, April 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.67/bbl. In contrast, in the last two sessions of the week, prices increased. As a result, on Thursday, April 17, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $67.96/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.9% higher than the previous Friday.
Concerns about the evolution of global oil demand continued in the third week of April. However, new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports contributed to the price increase at the end of the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Tuesday, April 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €34.41/MWh. Subsequently, prices rose. As a result, on Thursday, April 17, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.66/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 6.6% higher than the previous Friday.
The supply of liquefied natural gas allowed European reserves to increase in the third week of April. In addition, the EU member states agreed to relax the storage targets for the coming winter, which also contributed to prices remaining around €35/MWh.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, in the third week of April they remained above €65/t. On April 16, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €66.97/t. However, on Thursday, April 17, prices fell 1.6% from the previous day. On that day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €65.89/t. Despite the price decline, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.7% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
The 55th webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, “Prospects for energy markets in Europe. Keys to maximise profitability and efficiency of batteries”, will take place on Thursday, May 22. The guest speaker will be Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will analyze the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and the financial optimization of batteries. It will also address regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former minister of the Spanish Government and former president of Red Eléctrica, will also participate in the analysis table, which will take place in the second part of the webinar in Spanish. This space will also discuss hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, and transmission and distribution grids.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
