AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 26, 2025. The electricity system is undergoing a profound transformation, with a high penetration of renewable energy, large‑scale electrification, and the emergence of new agents and technologies. In this context, energy forecasts become an essential strategic tool, enabling informed decision‑making, reducing risks and anticipating market changes. This article explores the role of forecasts in the market and its future.
What are forecasts for the energy sector?
Energy forecasts are estimates based on scientific mathematical models, historical data and assumptions about future events and trends. They enable the anticipation of the evolution of key variables such as electricity demand, supply and its balance, renewable energy production (solar, wind, hydro) and the prices of electricity markets such as the spot market, the intraday market, balancing services and capacity markets, among others.
These forecasts can be produced for different time horizons: from minutes or hours (very short term) to weeks, months or even decades (long term).
What are forecasts used for?
Forecasts are indispensable for many agents in the electricity system.
Transmission system operators (TSOs) need accurate forecasts to plan system operation and ensure grid stability and security of supply. Renewable energy generators optimise their market participation and reduce the uncertainty of intermittent production thanks to forecasts. Retailers adjust their procurement strategies and reduce risk exposure based on them. Electro‑intensive consumers can plan their consumption and contract hedges through PPA or financial or physical delivery products in futures markets. Investors and developers of generation projects use long‑term forecasts to assess the economic viability of new projects (solar plants, wind farms, batteries, green hydrogen, etc.). Public authorities design policies, auctions and energy planning based on future scenarios.
Long‑term vision: the future is determined today
Decisions on energy infrastructure involve time horizons of 20, 30 or more years. For this reason, long‑term forecasts are essential for these types of projects, as they allow revenues to be estimated under different price scenarios, enabling the assessment of future profitability, the correct sizing of renewable energy plants and storage systems, the identification of regulatory or technical bottlenecks and the anticipation of technological trends and changes in demand.
Models and methodologies
Energy forecasts are based on complex models that combine historical market data (prices, consumption, etc.), influencing factors such as meteorology, economic and regulatory variables, along with statistical algorithms, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and scenario simulations under different assumptions.
A high‑quality forecast requires not only accurate data, but also a deep understanding of the functioning of the market and the electricity system.
The strategic value of forecasts: expert knowledge and methodological rigour as the basis for decision‑making
In an increasingly complex energy sector, the ability to anticipate trends and build a grounded forward‑looking vision has become a strategic asset. Agents of the sector rely not only on forecasting tools but on models that accurately integrate the factors that will shape the system’s behaviour: meteorology, demand, renewable penetration, regulatory signals, flexibility markets and new technologies such as storage or hydrogen. In this context, having coherent and scientifically validated forecasts makes a significant difference.
Increasingly, companies in the energy sector prioritise access to analyses produced by teams with a high level of technical expertise. The growing complexity of the market requires specialised knowledge in modelling, statistics and electricity system behaviour. In this regard, there is a growing recognition of the work carried out by organisations with scientific profiles and methodologies tested across different market environments. The significant presence of researchers and PhDs in forecasting and analysis departments reinforces model quality and ensures the proper interpretation of results.
The sector is moving towards decision‑making supported by forecasts that act as strategic guides, especially in projects with investment horizons extending over several decades. This is essential both for appropriately sizing generation and storage systems and for assessing future revenues under realistic price scenarios. Projects supported by scientifically based analyses are better prepared to adapt to scenarios of high uncertainty, high electrification and increasing participation of distributed resources.
The use of forecasts is no longer limited to planning; it has become a tool for active risk management, operational optimisation and alignment with the objectives of the energy transition. The combination of advanced models, long‑term vision and expert teams enables robust decision‑making and reduces exposure to increasingly disruptive market events.
The evolution of the electricity system will continue to be subject to structural changes in the coming years. In this context, expert knowledge applied to forecasts will be a determining factor for identifying opportunities, anticipating challenges and building strategies aligned with a more efficient, flexible and sustainable energy future.
Forecasts and analysis of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting for renewable energy and storage projects
The AleaGreen division provides long‑term forecasts, essential for the financing of renewable energy projects and the signing of PPA, as well as for asset valuation and the development of hedging strategies. Among the services offered by AleaGreen are production forecasts for different types of renewable energy plants, accompanied by the corresponding price forecasts, as well as guarantees of origin forecasts.
In addition, the AleaBlue division specialises in short‑ and mid‑term forecasts, from minutes to three years ahead, which serve as guidance for day‑ahead market operations, optimising energy production and consumption, risk management and energy trading.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
