AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 29, 2026. In the fourth week of June, the heat wave shaped European electricity markets by driving up demand and pushing weekly average prices higher, with most markets exceeding €115/MWh. Lower wind energy production in Germany and Italy also contributed to this trend. Germany and Spain set records for solar photovoltaic energy production, while TTF gas futures and Brent futures reached their lowest levels since April and February, respectively.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of June 22, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, 16%, while Spain registered the smallest rise, 0.5%. Both markets registered their second consecutive week of growth. France increased by 2.5% and registered its third consecutive weekly rise. In contrast, Italy and Portugal registered decreases of 5.1% and 22%, respectively, reversing the upward trend of the previous two weeks.
During the week, Germany and Spain reached records for solar photovoltaic energy production. On June 24, Germany registered its highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a June day, with 489 GWh, a figure that represented the second‑highest production in its history. Spain, for its part, reached its all‑time high for solar photovoltaic energy production on Friday, June 26, with 267 GWh.
For the week of June 29, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to an increase in the Italian market. In contrast, solar energy production will decrease in the Spanish and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the last week of June, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 54%, followed by France and Spain, with increases of 32% and 23%, respectively. In contrast, Italy and Germany accumulated their second consecutive week of declines. This time, wind energy production fell by 10% in Italy and by 40% in Germany.
For the first week of July, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to widespread increases across the main European electricity markets under analysis.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the last week of June, electricity demand increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 10%, followed by France, with 9.9%, and Belgium, with 7.3%. Portugal registered the smallest rise, 0.1%. Spain, Great Britain and Germany registered increases ranging from 3.1% in Spain to 6.0% in Germany. Demand in Great Britain grew for the second consecutive week, while demand in Germany, France, Portugal, Italy and Belgium accumulated its third consecutive weekly increase. In Spain, demand registered its sixth consecutive weekly rise.
During the week, average temperatures increased in all markets under analysis. Germany registered the largest increase, 5.2 °C, while Portugal registered the smallest, 0.7 °C. In Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and Great Britain, average temperatures rose between 1.1 °C in Spain and 4.7 °C in Great Britain.
This increase in temperatures coincided with heat episodes in the markets under analysis. France, Italy, Belgium and Germany faced heat wave conditions during the second half of June, while Spain registered a heat wave between June 21 and June 24. Great Britain registered an intense heat episode between June 24 and June 28, especially in England and Wales. In Portugal, high temperatures also drove electricity demand, although weekly demand grew more moderately than in the rest of the markets under analysis.
For the first week of July, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate decreases in the electricity markets of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Great Britain. On the other hand, demand will increase in the Portuguese market amid high temperatures during those days.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Daily prices in the main European markets increased sharply during the first days of the fourth week of June. Although prices fell afterward, weekly average prices increased compared to the previous week across European electricity markets. The Portuguese market registered the smallest price increase, 2.1%. In contrast, the French market registered the largest percentage price increase, 39%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 5.1% in the Spanish market and 37% in the Belgian market.
In the week of June 22, weekly averages exceeded €115/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions included the Nordic market, with an average of €68.24/MWh, and the Spanish and Portuguese markets, both with an average of €87.37/MWh. In contrast, the Belgian market registered the highest weekly average, €148.34/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €115.75/MWh in the French market to €144.67/MWh in the Italian market.
As for daily prices, the Nordic market registered prices below €100/MWh throughout the fourth week of June. Prices in the Spanish and Portuguese markets also stayed below €100/MWh for almost the entire week, except on Tuesday, June 23. On Monday, June 22, the Nordic market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €35.29/MWh.
On the other hand, daily prices exceeded €120/MWh throughout the fourth week of June in the Italian market. Prices also exceeded this level in the German, Belgian, British and Dutch markets from Monday to Friday, and in the French market on three occasions during the fourth week of June. On June 24, the Belgian market registered the highest daily average of the week among the markets under analysis, €257.55/MWh. This figure marked its highest price since December 13, 2024. That day, the Dutch market also reached its highest price since December 13, 2024, €227.99/MWh. For their part, the French and British markets reached their highest prices since January 2025, €157.87/MWh and €184.65/MWh, respectively, while the German market registered its highest price since November 2025, €207.84/MWh. The Italian market registered its highest price since March 2026, €162.66/MWh. The Spanish and Portuguese markets also reached their highest price since March 2026, €112.42/MWh in both cases, but on June 23.
In the week of June 22, higher demand drove prices up in European electricity markets. Lower wind energy production in Germany and Italy, as well as lower solar energy production in Spain, Italy and Portugal, also contributed to price increases in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of July, prices will fall in European electricity markets, driven by higher wind energy production and lower demand in most markets. In addition, solar energy production will increase in Italy. However, gas price trends will also influence European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $77.90/bbl, on Monday, June 22. However, this price already stood 3.3% below the previous Friday’s price. These futures registered price decreases in almost every session of the fourth week of June. As a result, on Friday, June 26, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $71.99/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 11% below the previous Friday’s price and marked the lowest level since February 27.
During the fourth week of June, Brent oil futures prices fell under pressure from increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran to reach a peace agreement to end the conflict.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.01/MWh, on Tuesday, June 23. During the rest of the week, prices remained below €41/MWh. On Thursday, June 25, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.41/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the lowest level since April 21. On Friday, June 26, the settlement price rose slightly to €40.78/MWh. This price still stood 3.1% below the previous Friday’s level.
Increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drove TTF gas futures prices down in the fourth week of June. However, low reserve levels and higher demand in Europe helped keep prices above €40/MWh.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €76.17/t, on Tuesday, June 23. After rising 1.8% compared to Tuesday, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €77.52/t, on June 24. In the last sessions of the fourth week of June, settlement prices moved lower but remained above €77/t. On Friday, June 26, the settlement price reached €77.17/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 4.2% below the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, July 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 68th edition of its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, this edition will analyze the current situation and prospects for PPA, financing of renewable energy and storage projects, as well as the prospects for energy storage and the opportunities for hybridization with renewable energy and self‑consumption. The analysis table of the webinar in Spanish will feature Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.