AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 31, 2025. In the last week of March, prices fell in most major European electricity markets. Declining demand and falling gas and CO2 prices drove these declines. In contrast, the fall in wind energy production caused prices to rise in some markets. The increase in photovoltaic energy production meant that MIBEL was among the markets with the lowest weekly prices, second only to the Nordic market, and registered the lowest hourly price in its history, ‑€5.21/MWh in Spain and ‑€4.00/MWh in Portugal. Other markets also registered negative hourly prices and the lowest daily prices since mid‑2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of March 24, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula. Increases were 63% in Portugal and 52% in Spain, reversing the previous week’s declines. In contrast, in Germany, France and Italy, solar energy production reversed the upward trend of the previous week, falling between 7.8% in the French market and 29% in the German market.
In the week of March 31, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar energy production will increase in the German market and it will decrease in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
During the week of March 24, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend of the previous week. The Portuguese and French markets registered the largest drops, 60% and 43%, respectively. The German and Italian markets registered the smallest declines, 12% and 8.8%, respectively.
In the week of March 31, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production using this technology will increase in Germany and France. On the other hand, the downward trend will continue in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of March 24, electricity demand showed a downward trend in the main European markets, similar to that of the previous week. The British and Portuguese markets registered the largest drops, 8.8% and 8.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the German and Belgian markets registered the smallest declines, 1.7% and 1.3%, in each case. The exception to this downward trend was the Dutch market, where demand increased by 6.1%.
Decreases in demand were associated with increases in average temperatures. Increases ranged from 0.2 °C in Spain to 3.1 °C in Italy. In France, average temperatures were similar to those of the previous week. In contrast, in Belgium and the Netherlands, average temperatures decreased by 1.8 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively.
For the week of March 31, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the downward trend will continue in the main European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of March, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. However, prices rose in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, Belgium, France and the Netherlands, with increases ranging from 9.2% in the Dutch market to 25% in the French market. Regarding price declines, the MIBEL market of Spain and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price declines, 15% and 16%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 3.2% in the IPEX market of Italy and 13% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
In the week of March 24, weekly averages were below €95/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, which averaged €119.27/MWh. The Nordic, Spanish and Portuguese markets had the lowest weekly averages, €24.96/MWh, €30.10/MWh and €30.35/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €71.17/MWh in the French market to €93.50/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, most markets registered their lowest prices of the week on Sunday, March 30. On that day, the Spanish and Portuguese markets reached their lowest prices since early June 2024, €3.03/MWh and €3.44/MWh, respectively. The Dutch market registered a price of €9.46/MWh, which was the lowest price since July 7, 2024, in that market. In the case of the Belgian and French markets, they registered their lowest prices since November 2024, while the British and German markets reached their lowest prices since December 2024 and January 2025, respectively.
As for hourly prices, the Belgian, British and French markets registered negative hourly prices on Sunday, March 30. The German and Dutch markets also registered negative prices on March 28. The Portuguese market, in addition to those two days, registered a negative hourly price on March 29, while the Spanish electricity market registered negative hourly prices on March 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30. The Iberian markets reached the lowest hourly prices in their history on Sunday, March 30. In Spain, the historical minimum was ‑€5.21/MWh, registered between 14:00 and 15:00, while in Portugal the minimum was ‑€4.00/MWh, registered between 11:00 and 12:00.
In the week of March 24, the drop in weekly gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, as well as the fall in electricity demand, led to lower prices in most European electricity markets. In addition, in the Iberian Peninsula, solar photovoltaic energy production increased significantly. However, the fall in wind energy production, as well as the drop in solar energy production in France and Germany, contributed to the price increase in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of April, prices will reverse their trend in most European electricity markets. In markets such as France and Germany, prices will fall, influenced by increased wind energy production. On the other hand, in the Iberian Peninsula, prices will rise due to the fall in wind and solar energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the fourth week of March, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market continued the upward trend started the previous week. As a result, on Thursday, March 27, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $74.03/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since late February. On Friday, March 28, prices declined slightly. Even though, the settlement price was $73.63/bbl, still 2.0% higher than the previous Friday.
US tariff policies continued to influence Brent oil futures price evolution in the fourth week of March. The announcement of additional tariffs for countries buying Venezuelan gas or oil drove prices higher. In addition, US oil reserves fell, contributing to this behavior. The announcement of a tariff on imported cars and light trucks also had an upward influence on prices, as this could slow down the substitution of these types of vehicles for more efficient models.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, March 24, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.75/MWh. Subsequently, in most sessions, prices declined. As a result, on Friday, March 28, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.59/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Milder temperatures exerted their downward influence on TTF gas futures prices. However, concerns about low European reserve levels continued in the fourth week of March and settlement prices remained above €40/MWh.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.52/t, on Monday, March 24. On the other hand, after a 3.2% drop from the previous day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €68.54/t, on Thursday, March 27. On Friday, March 28, the settlement price rose slightly to €68.80/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and energy storage in Europe
On Thursday, April 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 54th webinar of its monthly webinar series. This webinar will have the participation, for the fourth time, of Raúl García Posada, Director at ASEALEN, the Spanish Energy Storage Association. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will analyze regulation and current situation of energy storage, as well as the prospects for the coming months.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
