AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, November 6, 2024. In October, prices in most major European electricity markets rose compared to September, driven by gas prices, which reached their highest levels since December 2023. Some markets registered their highest monthly prices since at least February. In addition, the decrease in solar energy production, and the decline in wind energy production in some markets, together with mostly higher demand, contributed to the increase in market prices. Despite the autumn decline in photovoltaic energy production, Germany, Spain and Portugal reached production records with this technology for October, reflecting the growth in installed capacity associated with increasing investment in renewable energies.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In October 2024, most major European electricity markets registered increases in solar photovoltaic energy production compared to the same month of the previous year. The Portuguese market showed the largest increase, 32%, while in the German and Spanish markets, the rises were 7.5% and 9.1%, respectively. On the other hand, production with this technology declined in the French and Italian markets, with decreases of 1.8% and 7.0% in each case.
Compared to September 2024, solar photovoltaic energy production declined in October in all major European electricity markets, due to the reduction in sunshine hours and solar irradiation, which is typical for the autumn months. In particular, the German market registered the largest month‑on‑month decline, 45%, while the French market had the smallest drop, 25%. In the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets, photovoltaic energy generation fell by 33%, 35% and 36%, respectively.
October 2024 registered all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for October in the German, Spanish and Portuguese markets, of 3636 GWh, 2822 GWh and 318 GWh, respectively.
Every October since 2019, production with this technology has been higher than in the same month of the previous year in the Spanish and Portuguese markets, demonstrating the growth of the installed capacity in these markets. According to data from Red Eléctrica, between October 2023 and October 2024, Mainland Spain installed 4500 MW of new photovoltaic energy capacity. In the same period, the Portuguese market increased its photovoltaic energy capacity by 1085 MW.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
In October 2024, wind energy production in the Portuguese market was 3.0% higher than in the same month of 2023. Analysing the evolution of wind energy production in the months of October in recent years, this market maintained its upward trend for the third consecutive year and reached an all‑time monthly production record for that month, with 1410 GWh. In contrast, the Spanish, French, German and Italian markets showed a change in trend in wind energy generation in the tenth month of the year. In Spain and France, wind energy production decreased by 3.2% and 20%, respectively, after having registered year‑on‑year increases in the previous two years. The decreases were 26% in the German market and 27% in the Italian market.
Compared to the previous month, wind energy production also increased in the Portuguese market, in this case by 30%, and in the Spanish market, which registered a 20% increase. In the rest of the main European markets, there were decreases, ranging from 5.0% in Germany to 19% in France.
According to data from Red Eléctrica, between October 2023 and October 2024, Spain added 939 MW of wind energy capacity to the peninsular system. In the same period, the Portuguese market added 31 MW of new capacity of this technology.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In October 2024, electricity demand grew in most major European electricity markets compared to the same period in 2023. The British market registered the largest increase, 4.6%, followed by the increases in the French market, 4.3%, and in the Belgian market, 3.9%. The German market registered the smallest increase, 0.1%, while the Spanish, Dutch and Portuguese markets registered a growth of 1.7% in Spain and the Netherlands and 2.3% in Portugal. In contrast, demand in the Italian market fell by 2.2% year‑on‑year.
Analysing the evolution of electricity demand in the months of October in recent years, in the Spanish market, electricity demand in October 2024 increased year‑on‑year for the second year in a row, after four years of declines, from 2019 to 2022. The markets of France, Great Britain and the Netherlands registered the same behaviour as the Spanish market in terms of demand trends for October 2024. In the case of the French market, the declines in October demand occurred in 2021 and 2022, while in the British and Dutch markets, between 2020 and 2022. On the other hand, October demand in the Portuguese market has been increasing since 2022, after two years of declines.
When comparing electricity demand in October with that of September 2024, most markets also registered increases. In this case, the Dutch market registered the highest growth, 14%, followed by the British and French markets with rises of 10% and 7.2%, respectively. The Portuguese market registered the smallest increase, 1.7%, while the Belgian market increased by 2.3% and the German market by 2.7%. The Spanish and Italian markets were the only ones among those analysed where demand decreased compared to the previous month. The Spanish market registered the smallest decline, 1.1%, while the Italian market registered a drop of 3.9%.
In all major European electricity markets, average temperatures in October 2024 were lower than in the same month in 2023. The smallest decrease, 0.7 °C, was registered in Great Britain, while Portugal registered the largest drop, 1.5 °C. In the rest of the markets, average temperature drops ranged from 0.8 °C in Germany to 1.4 °C in Spain and Italy.
Similarly, average temperatures in October were lower than in the previous month in all analysed markets. In this case, France registered the smallest drop, 2.3 °C, and Germany had the largest drop, 4.6 °C. In the remaining markets, average temperature decreases compared to the previous month ranged from 2.4 °C in Great Britain to 3.8 °C in the Netherlands.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the month of October 2024, the monthly average price was above €65/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the EPEX SPOT market in France, which averaged €23.94/MWh and €61.92/MWh, respectively. The IPEX market of Italy registered the highest monthly price, €116.61/MWh. In the rest of the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the averages ranged from €68.58/MWh in the MIBEL market of Spain to €100.73/MWh in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom.
Compared to September, average prices rose in most European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The exceptions were the Italian, Spanish and Portuguese markets, with decreases of 0.4%, 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. In the remaining markets, prices increased between 9.5% in the British market and 21% in the Nordic market.
In contrast, when comparing the average prices in October with those registered in the same month of 2023, a decrease is observed in most analysed markets. In this case, the exception was the British market, with a price increase of 4.3%. On the other hand, the French market registered the largest percentage drop, 27%. In the remaining markets, price decreases ranged from 1.5% in the German market to 24% in the Spanish market.
In October 2024, the Spanish and Portuguese markets registered their lowest averages since July, while the Italian market registered its lowest average since August. In contrast, the British and Dutch markets reached their highest averages since December 2023. Regarding the Belgian and French market averages, they were the highest since February 2024. The German market reached the highest average since July and the Nordic market since August.
In October 2024, the increase in gas prices compared to the previous month, the fall in solar energy production, as well as the increase in demand and the decrease in wind energy production compared to September in most analysed markets, favoured price rises in the European electricity markets. However, electricity demand fell in the Spanish and Italian markets and wind energy production increased in the Spanish and Portuguese markets. This led to lower prices in these three markets. In addition, hydroelectric energy production increased in the Spanish market.
On the other hand, in the month of October 2024, the fall in the average price of gas and CO2 emission allowances and the increase in solar energy production compared to October 2023 in most markets led to a year‑on‑year decrease in European electricity market prices. However, the British market registered the largest increase in electricity demand, which contributed to the year‑on‑year price increase in this market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered a monthly average price of $75.38/bbl in the month of October. This value was 3.4% higher than the average reached by September Front‑Month futures, $72.87/bbl. On the other hand, it was 15% lower than that of October 2023 Front‑Month futures, $88.70/bbl.
During October, fears of supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict, as well as the effects of Hurricane Milton in the United States, exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices. However, the recovery of production in Libya and concerns about global oil demand evolution contributed to the year‑on‑year price decline. In October, the International Energy Agency and OPEC lowered their demand growth forecasts for 2024.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, the average value registered during the month of October for these futures was €40.42/MWh. This is the highest monthly average since December 2023. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, compared to the average of the Front‑Month futures traded in September, €36.20/MWh, the October average increased by 12%. When compared to the Front‑Month futures traded in the month of October 2023, when the average price was €47.07/MWh, there was a decrease of 14%.
During the month of October, supply concerns caused by tension in the Middle East also exerted an upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. However, high levels of European reserves kept the settlement prices of these futures below €45/MWh in October, resulting in a lower average than in the same month of the previous year.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they reached an average price in October of €63.93/t. According to data analysed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this represents a decrease of 2.4% compared to the previous month’s average, €65.51/t. Compared to the average of October 2023, €85.58/t, the average of October 2024 was 25% lower.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
Long‑term price forecasts are necessary for renewable energy project financing, risk management and hedging, PPA negotiation, long‑term energy trading, portfolio valuation and audits. AleaGreen division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides long‑term price curve forecasting reports for electricity markets. These price forecasts have hourly granularity, 30‑year horizons and confidence bands. In addition, AleaGreen forecasts stand out because of their coherence and quality, as they are based on a unique scientific methodology that combines Artificial Intelligence, time series and statistical models.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
