AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, March 24, 2025. In the third week of March, weekly prices in most major European electricity markets fell below €85/MWh, after exceeding €100/MWh in the previous week. Almost all markets registered the lowest daily price since at least January. The increase in renewable energy production and the decrease in electricity demand favored these decreases. Portugal registered the all‑time record for wind energy production on March 19, while during the week Germany, France and Italy reached the highest photovoltaic energy production for a day in March.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of March 17, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in several major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Production with this technology reversed the downward trend of the previous week and increased by 89% in the German market, 32% in the Italian market and 26% in the French market. In contrast, in the Portuguese and Spanish markets, photovoltaic energy production decreased by 18% and 7.8%, respectively, reversing the previous week’s increases.
In the third week of March, the German, French and Italian markets broke all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in March. In the German and French markets this happened on Tuesday, March 18, when they generated 324 GWh and 120 GWh, respectively. The Italian market reached this milestone two days later, when it registered 121 GWh of solar photovoltaic energy production. These markets last registered these levels in August and September 2024.
In the week of March 24, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar energy production will increase in the Spanish market and it will decrease in the German and Italian markets, reversing the previous week’s trends.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
During the week of March 17, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the downward trend of that period. The Portuguese and German markets registered the largest increases, 121% and 93%, respectively, while the French and Spanish markets registered increases of 55% and 44% in each case. The Italian market was the exception. In this market, wind energy production decreased by 37%, reversing the upward trend of the previous week.
On Wednesday, March 19, the Portuguese market broke the historical record of daily wind energy production with a generation of 112 GWh.
In the week of March 24, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will reverse the trends observed in its evolution during the week of March 17. Wind energy production will decrease in Germany, France, Spain and Portugal, but it will increase in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of March 17, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week, reversing the upward trend observed in that period. The Dutch market registered the largest decline, 16%. In the other markets, the fall in demand ranged from 1.2% in Spain to 7.9% in France. On the other hand, demand in Italy and Portugal increased slightly, by 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively. In the latter market, the upward trend continued for the second consecutive week.
Decreases in demand are associated with increases in average temperatures. Average temperatures increased from 1.4 °C in Portugal to 5.8 °C in Belgium. Italy was the exception with a decrease in average temperatures of 3.4 °C.
For the week of March 24, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the British, Dutch and Belgian markets. In contrast, it will decrease in the German, French, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the third week of March, average prices in most major European electricity markets decreased compared to the previous week. The exception was the IPEX market of Italy, which registered a 5.0% increase. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage price declines, 53%, 56% and 57%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 5.8% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 43% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of March 17, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, whose averages were €107.21/MWh and €123.25/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market had the lowest weekly average, €29.68/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €33.96/MWh in the Portuguese market to €80.17/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding daily prices, on Saturday, March 22, the Nordic market reached a price of €2.25/MWh, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. Moreover, this price was the lowest since September 11, 2024, in the Nordic market. On March 21, the Portuguese market price was €10.69/MWh, the lowest price in this market since June 3, 2024, while the Spanish market price was €10.75/MWh, its lowest price since November 25, 2024. In the case of the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets, on March 22 they registered their lowest prices since January 2025.
In the week of March 17, the fall in electricity demand and the increase in wind energy production in most analyzed markets, as well as the increase in solar energy production in some of them, led to lower prices in European electricity markets, despite the increase in weekly prices of CO2 emission allowances. However, demand increased and wind energy production decreased in Italy, contributing to the increase in prices in this market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of March, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the fall in wind energy production. In addition, electricity demand will increase and solar energy production will fall in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the third week of March, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained above $70/bbl. On Tuesday, March 18, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $70.56/bbl. Subsequently, prices started an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, March 21, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $72.16/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.2% higher than the previous Friday.
Despite fears about the effects on demand of US tariff policies, positive economic data from China, as well as the possibility of additional measures to stimulate the Chinese economy, led to expectations of higher demand. Increased instability in the Middle East also contributed to prices remaining above $70/bbl in the third week of March. On the other hand, Brent oil futures prices continued to be influenced by developments in the war in Ukraine. In addition, the announcement of new sanctions on Iranian oil contributed to the price increase at the end of the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they started the third week of March with price declines. On Tuesday, March 18, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.75/MWh. However, on March 19, there was a 6.4% increase over the previous day. On that day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €43.35/MWh. Subsequently, prices fell slightly. On Friday, March 21, the settlement price was €42.60/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.7% higher than the previous Friday. As a result of this evolution, the weekly average of settlement prices was 0.1% higher than the previous week.
In the third week of March, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to condition the evolution of TTF gas futures prices. On the other hand, milder temperatures and increased wind energy production exerted their downward influence on prices.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, March 17, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.11/t. Subsequently, prices increased and on March 19 these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.44/t. However, in the last sessions of the third week of March, prices declined again. On Friday, March 21, the settlement price was €71.45/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was only 0.6% higher than the previous Friday, while the weekly average of settlement prices increased by 3.1%.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, renewable energy financing and energy storage
The 53rd webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting took place on Thursday, March 13. This webinar featured speakers from EY for the fifth consecutive year. On this occasion, the webinar analyzed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the key milestones for 2025 in the energy sector, the regulation and prospects for energy storage and capacity markets, the financing of renewable energy projects, the importance of PPA and self‑consumption, as well as key aspects for portfolio valuation. If AleaSoft Energy Forecasting is your market advisor, you can request the recording of this webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
