AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 6, 2025. In the first week of October, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week, with the exception of the Iberian market. The Dutch, German and British markets registered their lowest daily prices since at least mid‑2024. Photovoltaic energy production set all‑time records for an October day in the main European markets, and wind energy production also reached record levels in several of them. The increase in renewable energy generation, together with lower electricity demand in most markets and the drop in gas prices, were the main factors behind the price declines. Meanwhile, CO2 futures reached their highest settlement price since mid‑February, above €79/t, and Brent futures their lowest since late May.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of September 29, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French and German markets registered the largest increases, 25% and 22%, respectively. Italy registered the smallest increase, 7.1%, while Portugal’s generation rose by 8.0% after two consecutive weeks of declines. In contrast, the Spanish market registered a decrease for the second consecutive week, this time of 3.4%.
During the week, the main European markets reached record‑high photovoltaic energy production for a day in October. The French market registered its record on October 1, with a generation of 117 GWh. The following day, October 2, the German, Spanish and Italian markets registered their records, generating 283 GWh, 181 GWh and 98 GWh, respectively. The Portuguese market set its record on Friday, October 3, with a generation of 23 GWh.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, in the second week of October, solar energy generation will increase in the Italian and Spanish markets, while the German market will register a decrease in production from this technology.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the first week of October, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 119%, while the German market registered the smallest, 3.9%. France’s production rose by 36% after three consecutive weeks of declines. In contrast, the Iberian markets registered drops in wind energy generation. The Spanish market registered a decrease of 8.7% and the Portuguese market, of 40%.
During the week, the Italian, German and French markets reached historic records for wind energy production for a day in October. The Italian market registered its highest daily generation on Thursday, October 2, with 171 GWh. The German and French markets registered their highest daily levels for October on Saturday, October 4, with 953 GWh and 349 GWh, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, in the second week of October, wind energy generation will decrease in most major European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the first week of October, electricity demand increased in the Iberian Peninsula compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest rise, 1.0%, despite the national holiday on Sunday, October 5, in Portugal, the Day of the Establishment of the Republic. In the Spanish market, demand increased by 0.8%. In contrast, in the Italian, British, German, French and Belgian markets, electricity demand declined. The Italian market registered the largest decrease, 2.7%, maintaining its downward trend for the third consecutive week, while the Belgian market registered the smallest drop, 0.1%. France, Germany and Belgium reduced their demand by 0.5%, 0.6% and 2.0%, respectively. In the German market, the national holiday on October 3, the Day of German Unity, influenced the decline.
During the week, average temperatures were higher than those of the previous week in most analyzed markets. The increases ranged between 0.9 °C in Great Britain and 1.9 °C in France. Conversely, Germany and Italy registered decreases of 1.4 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively.
For the week of October 6, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will decrease in most major European markets. However, demand will increase in Portugal and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the first week of October, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exception was the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, with increases of 14% and 15%, respectively. On the other hand, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the smallest price drop, 2.8%. In contrast, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the largest percentage price decrease, 32%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 6.1% in the IPEX market of Italy and 18% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the week of September 29, weekly averages were below €70/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Dutch, German and Italian markets, with averages of €75.45/MWh, €79.17/MWh and €101.99/MWh, respectively. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the lowest weekly average, €35.33/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €42.94/MWh in the French market and €69.42/MWh in the Portuguese market.
Regarding daily prices, on Saturday, October 4, most markets registered prices below €5/MWh. In the German and Dutch markets, daily prices were negative. The Dutch market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, ‑€1.11/MWh. This was its lowest price since July 7, 2024. In the case of the German market, the price was ‑€0.29/MWh, its lowest daily price since December 25, 2023. The British market registered a higher price, €0.48/MWh. However, this was its lowest daily price since May 24, 2020.
On the other hand, during the first week of October, there were daily prices above €100/MWh in the German, Belgian, British, Italian and Dutch markets. On September 30, the German market reached the highest daily average of the week, €136.17/MWh.
In the week of September 29, the decrease in weekly gas prices, the increase in wind and solar energy production, as well as the drop in demand in most markets, led to the decline in prices in the European electricity markets. However, the increase in demand in Spain and Portugal, together with the decrease in wind and solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, contributed to the price rise in the MIBEL market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of October, prices will rise in most major European electricity markets, influenced by the drop in wind energy production. In addition, electricity demand will increase in some markets and solar energy production will decrease in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $67.97/bbl, on Monday, September 29. This price was already 3.1% lower than that of the previous Friday. The downward trend continued until Thursday, October 2. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.11/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since May 31. On Friday, October 3, the settlement price was slightly higher, $64.53/bbl, but still 8.0% lower than that of the previous Friday.
Concerns about demand, as well as the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices in the first week of October. Expectations of further production increases by OPEC+ also contributed to the decline in prices during the week. On Sunday, October 5, the organization agreed to raise its production by 137 000 barrels per day in November.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, September 29, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €32.06/MWh. In the remaining sessions of the first week of October, prices stayed below €32/MWh. On October 1, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.34/MWh. On Friday, October 3, the settlement price was €31.44/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.9% lower than that of the previous Friday.
The abundant supply of liquefied natural gas and European storage levels, which averaged above 82%, led TTF gas futures prices to remain below €32/MWh for almost the entire first week of October.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, prices increased in most sessions of the first week of October, except on Tuesday, September 30. On that day, after a 1.4% drop compared to Monday, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €75.74/t. Subsequently, prices continued to rise. As a result, on Friday, October 3, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €79.14/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.2% higher than that of the previous Friday and the highest since February 15.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing of renewable energy and storage projects
On Thursday, October 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 59th webinar in its monthly webinar series. This event will focus on the evolution and prospects of European energy markets for the winter 2025‑2026, the financing of renewable energy and storage projects, the prospects for batteries and hybridization, as well as the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation. The webinar will feature speakers from Deloitte for the sixth consecutive year.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
