AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 30, 2025. In the last week of June, prices in the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. Nevertheless, the British, Iberian and Italian markets reached daily prices above €100/MWh on some occasions during the week. The drop in gas and CO2 prices, along with an increase in wind energy production, contributed to the decline in electricity prices. In addition, solar photovoltaic energy reached all-time daily production records in Spain, Portugal and Italy.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of June 23, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in Italy and Spain compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, at 9.4%, while the Spanish market saw a 0.6% rise, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive week. In contrast, the German, French and Portuguese markets saw a decline in photovoltaic energy generation, reversing the positive trend of the previous week. Germany registered the largest drop, at 20%, followed by France with a 12% decrease, and Portugal with the smallest decline, at 2.6%.
During the week, the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets reached all-time highs in solar photovoltaic energy generation. On June 26, the Iberian Peninsula markets registered their highest-ever solar photovoltaic energy production, with 235 GWh in Spain and 30 GWh in Portugal. Italy set its record on June 29, with 157 GWh generated.
For the week of June 30, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts indicate increases in the German and Spanish markets. On the other hand, generation with this technology will decline in the Italian market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the last week of June, wind energy production increased in most of the main European markets compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, at 160%, after two consecutive weeks of declines. Spain registered the smallest increase, at 11%. France and Italy continued their upward trend for the second consecutive week, with increases of 14% and 37%, respectively. In contrast, wind energy production in Portugal continued to fall for the third week in a row, with a 5.1% decline.
On Monday, June 23, the German market reached its second-highest wind energy production for a June day on record, with 676 GWh. On Saturday, June 28, the Italian market registered wind energy generation of 123 GWh, the highest value for the month of June since June 16, 2023, when it generated 126 GWh.
For the first week of July, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to increases on the Iberian Peninsula. In contrast, production will decrease in Italy, Germany and France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of June 23, electricity demand increased in most of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Germany and Italy registered the largest increases, at 8.2% and 8.1%, respectively. France showed the smallest growth, at 2.6%, while Portugal experienced a 3.9% rise.
The increases in Portugal and Germany were driven by the recovery in demand following the June 19 holiday, Corpus Christi, which is a national holiday in Portugal and is observed in several regions of Germany. France and Italy continued their upward trend for the fourth and fifth consecutive week, respectively.
In contrast, Spain, Belgium and Great Britain reversed their previous trend and registered declines in electricity demand. The British market showed the largest decrease, at 2.0%, followed by Belgium with a 1.4% drop. In Spain, the regional holiday on June 24, St. John the Baptist Day, celebrated in several autonomous communities, contributed to a 0.1% decrease in demand.
At the same time, average temperatures increased in most of the analyzed markets. The increases ranged from 0.3°C in Spain to 2.2°C in Germany. Meanwhile, Great Britain registered a weekly average temperature decrease of 0.7°C, which contributed to lower demand in this market.
For the week of June 30, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts anticipate increases in Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and Great Britain. In Spain, the heatwave that began on Saturday, June 28, and is expected to continue throughout the week, together with the recovery in demand following the regional holiday on June 24, will support higher electricity demand. On the other hand, forecasts indicate a decrease in demand in the Portuguese market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of June, average prices in most of the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the largest percentage drop, at 28%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices decreased between 1.3% in the IPEX market of Italy and 14% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries. The exception was the EPEX SPOT market of France, where prices increased by 19%.
During the week of June 23, weekly averages were above €60/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which had an average of €15.84/MWh. The Italian market registered the highest weekly average, at €117.27/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €61.28/MWh in the French market to €87.84/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal.
As for daily prices, on Sunday, June 29, the Nordic market registered the lowest daily average of the fourth week of June among the analyzed markets, at €0.79/MWh. This was its lowest price since August 26, 2024. In contrast, the British, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets reached daily prices above €100/MWh on several occasions during the week. On Monday, June 23, the Italian market registered the highest daily average, at €136.57/MWh, its highest price since February 27.
Regarding hourly prices, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices during the fourth week of June. The exceptions were the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets. On Sunday, June 29, between 14:00 and 15:00, the Belgian market registered the lowest hourly price of the week, at ‑€35.19/MWh. In the case of the Nordic market, on Sunday between 13:00 and 14:00, it reached its lowest price since August 26, 2024, at ‑€9.98/MWh.
In the week of June 23, the decline in gas prices and CO2 emission allowance prices, along with increased wind energy production in most markets, contributed to lower electricity prices in European markets. In Spain and Italy, solar energy production also rose. Additionally, electricity demand fell in some markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of July, prices will rise in most of the main European electricity markets, driven by increased demand and, in most cases, a decrease in wind energy production. However, the increase in wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula will help drive prices down in the MIBEL market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front-Month on the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $71.48/bbl, on Monday, June 23. This price was already 7.2% lower than the last session of the previous week. On Tuesday, June 24, prices continued to fall, dropping 6.1% from Monday. As a result, on Tuesday, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $67.14/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since June 11. In the last three sessions of the fourth week of June, prices were slightly higher but remained below $68/bbl. On Friday, June 27, the settlement price was $67.77/bbl, 12% lower than the previous Friday.
The easing of tensions in the Middle East contributed to the decline in Brent oil futures during the fourth week of June. The possibility of increased production by OPEC+ also exerted downward pressure on prices.
As for TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, June 23, they registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €40.52/MWh. This was 1.0% lower than the final session of the previous week. The downward trend continued throughout the fourth week of June. As a result, on Friday, June 27, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €33.09/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 19% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since May 6.
In the fourth week of June, the increase in gas supply from Norway and the drop in demand due to higher wind energy production contributed to the decline in TTF gas futures prices. In addition, concerns over interruptions in liquefied natural gas supply eased as tensions in the Middle East subsided.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.56/t, on Tuesday, June 24. After that, prices fell. On Thursday, June 26, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.40/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since May 10. On Friday, June 27, there was a slight recovery, and the settlement price was €70.97/t. However, this price was still 2.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe, storage and project financing
On Thursday, July 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 57th edition in its monthly webinar series. In addition to the evolution and prospects of the European energy markets, the webinar will analyze the current situation and prospects for PPA, with a particular focus on the perspective of large consumers. The session will also address the prospects for energy storage and the IDAE funding call for energy storage projects.
The analysis panel of the webinar in Spanish will feature the participation of Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell. Pedro González will provide insight into the perspective of electro‑intensive large consumers, while Roger Font will address the challenges and opportunities for storage and renewable energy project financing in the current market context.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
