Mid-term electricity market price forecasts

Mid-term electricity market price forecasts

A forward-looking vision to optimize your energy market decisions

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At AleaSoft, we provide mid-term electricity market price forecasts, with a horizon of up to three years. The forecasts have a granularity of 15 minutes, half-hourly, and hourly, depending on the market.

These forecasts are useful for closing products on futures markets, energy trading, risk management and hedging, as well as for optimizing and planning energy production and consumption. Therefore, most energy sector players can benefit from their use, such as electricity producers, utilities, renewable energy developers, direct consumers, distributors, and traders.

We offer the forecasts in two modalities: product and service.

  • The product format involves the installation of an automated application that manages both data updates and forecast generation.
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  • The service format consists of the periodic delivery of updated price forecasts and scenarios of the main explanatory variables.

Among these variables is demand, which is modeled based on factors such as temperature, socioeconomic data, and employment. Production scenarios for different technologies, such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear, are also taken into account, in addition to the prices of fuels used for electricity generation and CO2 emission allowance prices.

AleaSoft’s forecasts combine Artificial Intelligence, time series, and statistical models, ensuring their quality through a robust scientific methodology. Furthermore, we enjoy the trust and support of our clients, who have been using our forecasts for 27 years.

Example of mid-term price forecasts for Spain

Forecast made on 22/03/2022.

From 15/06/2022 to 31/12/2023, the production cost adjustment mechanism to reduce the price of electricity in the wholesale market, better known as the “Iberian exception”, was in force. This mechanism was approved by the Spanish government on 13/05/2022 and was finally applied until 26/02/2023.

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