AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 22, 2026. In the third week of June, prices rose in most European electricity markets and exceeded €80/MWh. Higher demand, amid rising temperatures, lower wind energy production and higher CO₂ futures supported this trend. The agreement between the United States and Iran pushed Brent and TTF gas futures lower. France and Portugal reached all‑time highs in solar photovoltaic energy production, while Spain and Italy set records for a June day.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of June 15, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European markets compared with the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 34%, followed by the French market, with a 33% rise. The Italian market registered the smallest increase, 5.2%, while the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered increases of 10% and 13%, respectively. France, Portugal and Italy registered their second consecutive week of growth, while Germany and Spain reversed the downward trend of the previous two weeks.
During the week, several analyzed markets reached solar photovoltaic energy production records. The French and Portuguese markets reached all‑time highs in solar photovoltaic energy production, with 183 GWh in France on Monday, June 15, and 34 GWh in Portugal on Friday, June 19. The Spanish and Italian markets, for their part, registered their highest production with this technology for a June day on June 18, with 251 GWh and 161 GWh, respectively.
For the week of June 22, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in the Italian and German markets. In contrast, solar energy production will decrease in the Spanish market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the third week of June, wind energy production decreased in the main European electricity markets compared with the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest drop, 62%, followed by the French market, with a 50% decrease. Both markets registered their second consecutive week of declines. The Spanish, Italian and German markets registered drops of 33%, 43% and 49%, respectively. Spain and Italy reversed the upward trend of the previous two weeks, while Germany reversed that trend after three weeks of increases.
During the week, several European markets registered their lowest wind energy production levels for a day in June. The Spanish and Italian markets registered their lowest wind energy production for a June day in the last three years, with 43 GWh in Spain on June 16 and 13 GWh in Italy on June 21. The French market, for its part, registered on June 17 its lowest production with this technology for a June day since 2021, with 27 GWh.
For the fourth week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to increases in the markets of Portugal, France, Spain and Italy. In contrast, the German market will register lower wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the third week of June, electricity demand increased in the analyzed European electricity markets compared with the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 12%, while the German market registered the smallest rise, 1.2%. The Belgian, Portuguese, British, French and Spanish markets registered increases ranging from 3.8% in Belgium to 8.2% in Spain. Germany, France, Portugal, Italy and Belgium registered their second consecutive week of growth, while the Spanish market registered its fifth consecutive week of increases.
During the week, average temperatures rose in all analyzed markets. Belgium registered the largest increase, 7.4 °C, while Portugal registered the smallest, 2.1 °C. In Spain, Italy, Great Britain, Germany and France, average temperatures rose by between 2.8 °C in Spain and 6.3 °C in France.
For the fourth week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate increases in the main analyzed European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Daily prices in most European markets remained higher than in the previous week. As a result, in the third week of June, the weekly average price increased compared with the previous week in most European electricity markets. The Nordic market provided the exception, with a 12% price decline. In contrast, the Spanish, Portuguese and French markets registered the largest percentage price increases, 83%, 88% and 217%, respectively. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 3.7% in the Italian market and 30% in the Belgian market.
In the week of June 15, weekly averages exceeded €80/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Nordic market provided the exception, with an average of €54.28/MWh. In contrast, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €127.69/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €83.13/MWh in the French market to €118.99/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market registered prices below €25/MWh during the weekend of the third week of June. On June 21, this market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €18.12/MWh. In the rest of the markets, daily prices stayed above €55/MWh during the third week of June.
On the other hand, daily prices exceeded €100/MWh in the German, Belgian, British, Italian and Dutch markets during some sessions in the third week of June. On June 18, the Dutch market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €143.63/MWh. That day, the Belgian market reached €141.93/MWh, its highest price since March 11. That week, the Iberian Peninsula markets also reached their highest values since March 12. The Spanish market registered its highest price, €98.30/MWh, on June 16, while the Portuguese market registered its highest price, €98.70/MWh, on June 17. However, on June 22, the price climbed even higher, to €99.89/MWh in both cases, although it remained below the values reached on March 11.
In the week of June 15, the increase in the weekly price of CO₂ emission allowances, along with higher demand and the decline in wind energy production, pushed European electricity market prices higher.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of June, prices will continue to rise in European electricity markets, with higher demand influencing them. In addition, wind energy production will fall in Germany, while solar energy production will decrease in Spain. Gas prices will also shape the evolution of prices in European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $83.17/bbl, on Monday, June 15. However, this price already stood 4.8% below the previous Friday’s price. On Tuesday, June 16, after a 5.1% drop compared with Monday, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $78.96/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the lowest level since March 3. Prices then began to recover slightly. As a result, on Friday, June 19, the settlement price reached $80.57/bbl. This price still stood 7.7% below the previous Friday’s price.
During the third week of June, progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as International Energy Agency forecasts of a crude oil surplus for 2027, pushed Brent oil futures lower, with settlement prices below $85/bbl.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €42.51/MWh, on Monday, June 15, already 9.1% below the final session of the previous week. During the week, prices continued to fall. On Thursday, June 18, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €40.52/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price marked the lowest level since April 21. On Friday, June 19, prices rose 3.9% compared with Thursday and the settlement price reached €42.09/MWh. However, this price still stood 10% below the previous Friday’s price.
Expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after the provisional agreement between the United States and Iran pushed prices lower in the third week of June. After the agreement entered into force, TTF gas futures reached their lowest price since April. However, prices recovered at the end of the week amid doubts about a rapid recovery in flows, new geopolitical tensions, forecasts of high temperatures in Europe and storage levels below normal.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, prices hovered around €80/t during the third week of June. On June 17, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €79.78/t. In contrast, on Friday, June 19, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €80.58/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 4.4% higher than the previous Friday’s price.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, June 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 67th edition of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, speakers from ENGIE Spain joined the series for the seventh time. This edition analyzed the recent evolution of European energy markets and the prospects for the second half of 2026, the opportunities and challenges for growth in the renewable energy sector, the current situation and trends in the PPA market in Spain, as well as prospects for battery energy storage and hybridization with photovoltaic energy.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
