AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, January 5, 2026. In the first week of 2026, prices in the main European electricity markets rebounded after falling on January 1, driven by higher demand and gas prices, together with lower wind energy availability in some markets. At the same time, photovoltaic energy production set new all‑time highs for a December day in France and Portugal, and the New Year’s holiday and falling temperatures affected demand in most markets.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of December 29, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 38% in the French market and by 16% in the Italian market, in both cases for the second consecutive week. By contrast, after increases registered the previous week, solar energy production decreased by 13% in Portugal and by 4.9% in Spain.
In addition, the French and Portuguese markets set new all‑time records for photovoltaic energy production for a December day. In Portugal, this occurred on Monday, December 29, when it produced 15 GWh of solar energy. Two days later, on December 31, the French market produced 56 GWh using this technology.
During the week of January 5, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, production will increase in the German and Spanish markets. However, solar energy production will decrease in the Italian market compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the week of December 29, wind energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Italian market, for the third consecutive week, registering this time the largest increase among the main European markets, 80%. The German market followed, where production from this technology increased for the second consecutive week, this time by 43%. The Portuguese market reversed the negative trend of the previous week with the smallest increase, 6.5%. By contrast, after two weeks of a positive trend, wind energy production fell in the French and Spanish markets by 41% and 21%, respectively.
In the week of January 5, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, production from this technology will increase in the Italian, Spanish, French and Portuguese markets. However, wind energy production will decrease in the German market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of December 29, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, reversing the downward trend registered the previous week. In the French market, demand rose for the third consecutive week, registering the largest increase, 12%. Meanwhile, in the Belgian, German, Italian and British markets, increases ranged between 1.8% and 7.3%. The Iberian Peninsula was the exception. Demand in the Portuguese and Spanish markets decreased for the second consecutive week, by 1.5% and 0.2%, respectively.
During the week, the New Year’s Day holiday reduced demand in all markets, resulting in a less pronounced recovery after Christmas.
At the same time, in most analyzed markets, average temperatures fell between 0.6 °C in Germany and 3.3 °C in Great Britain, which favored higher electricity consumption associated with heating. By contrast, in Belgium and the Iberian Peninsula, average temperatures were between 0.2 °C and 1.0 °C less cold than the previous week.
For the week of January 5, according AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, the positive trend will continue and demand will increase in the main European markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Prices in most European electricity markets plunged on January 1, 2026, but quickly recovered in the following days. As a result, in the first week of the year, weekly average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market of Italy, the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, with declines of 0.5%, 1.5%, 7.1% and 11%, respectively. By contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price increase, 65%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 3.8% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 27% in the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal.
In the week of December 29, weekly averages were above €80/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic market and the German market, whose averages were €63.40/MWh and €73.85/MWh, respectively. By contrast, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €107.84/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged between €80.63/MWh in the Dutch market and €88.04/MWh in the Iberian market.
As for daily prices, on Thursday, January 1, the German market reached the lowest average of the week among the markets analyzed, €9.75/MWh. This was its lowest daily price since October 27. On that day, the British market also reached its lowest price since October 27, €45.34/MWh. In the case of the Dutch and Belgian markets, on January 1, they registered their lowest prices since November 2, €47.35/MWh and €51.75/MWh, respectively.
On the other hand, the Italian market registered daily prices above €100/MWh throughout the first week of January. This market reached the highest daily average of the week, €113.66/MWh, on Monday, December 29. That day, prices also exceeded €100/MWh in the MIBEL market. The Spanish and Portuguese markets registered a price of €107.20/MWh in both cases, which was their highest price since October 18.
In the week of December 29, higher gas prices and increased demand in most markets supported the rise in European electricity market prices. In addition, the decline in wind energy production contributed to higher prices in the Spanish and French markets. By contrast, in the German and Italian markets, wind energy production increased, favoring a decrease in prices in those markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of January, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by rising demand. In the German market, in addition, wind energy production will decrease. However, the notable increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula will favor a decrease in prices in the Spanish and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $61.94/bbl, on Monday, December 29. Subsequently, they began a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, January 2, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $60.75/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 0.2% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Despite geopolitical tensions, concerns about global oversupply continued to exert downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices in the first week of January. On Sunday, January 4, OPEC+ confirmed its decision to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Tuesday, December 30, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €27.77/MWh. Subsequently, prices increased. On Friday, January 2, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €29.00/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.2% higher than that of the previous Friday and the highest since November 28.
Low temperatures contributed to the increase in TTF gas futures prices in the first week of January. In addition, European storage levels are currently below 61%. However, abundant supply kept prices below €30/MWh in the first week of 2026.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they remained below €87.50/t in the last three sessions of 2025. On Tuesday, December 30, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €87.28/t. By contrast, on Friday, January 2, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €88.31/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.3% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for European energy markets, storage and demand
On Thursday, January 15, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 62nd edition of its monthly webinar series. Speakers from PwC Spain will participate for the sixth consecutive year. On this occasion, the webinar will analyze the prospects for European energy markets, energy storage and hybridization. It will also address growth in electricity demand driven by Data Centers and industry electrification, the current state of regulation on PPA and renewable energy, as well as the evolution of virtual PPA and FPA (Flexibility Purchase Agreements).
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.